Northwestern vs. Michigan: Complete Game Preview
The No. 13 Northwestern Wildcats and No. 18 Michigan Wolverines will battle for a critical early-season conference victory on Saturday, Oct. 10, at the Big House in Ann Arbor.
Northwestern (5-0) opened the campaign with a stunning win over the then-21st ranked Stanford Cardinal and hasn't slowed down defensively, allowing just 35 points through five games.
Michigan (4-1) has been equally dominant since dropping head coach Jim Harbaugh's debut at the Utah Utes. The Wolverines have recorded back-to-back shutouts and hold a dominant 122-14 advantage over the last four contests.
Per Odds Shark, Michigan is an eight-point favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
Northwestern Wildcats Keys to Victory
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Convert Red-Zone Opportunities
Although Northwestern's reached the red zone 17 times this season, the offense only has five touchdowns to show for it. Jack Mitchell has connected on nine of his 10 field-goal attempts from the area.
But field goals won't cut it against Michigan.
The Wolverines have only allowed six red-zone opportunities all year. Yes, while four of those chances resulted in touchdowns, that's an average of 1.2 drives per game that reach the 20-yard line.
Even if Northwestern gets two drives into the prime scoring territory, that's two drives the Wildcats must convert into touchdowns. Michigan won't give them many chances to hang seven on the scoreboard.
Assemble the Best Run-Stopping Performance Yet
Northwestern boasts the No. 5 total defense in the country, but that ranking is mostly due to its outstanding pass defense. The 'Cats can be beaten on the ground.
After holding Stanford without a touchdown and to a jaw-dropping 85 yards on 27 carries, Northwestern shut down Eastern Illinois, as anticipated. But then, Duke and Ball State each registered better than five yards per attempt.
Pat Fitzgerald's team returned to its lock-down ways last week, containing the Minnesota Golden Gophers to a 2.2-yard average. However, Minnesota's offense is inept at best—not so with Michigan.
Stanford's woes were partially attributed to the game being a noon kickoff for a West Coast team. Northwestern needs to prove that opinion is patently false. The Wildcats won't have a better opportunity than on the road at Michigan.
Michigan Wolverines Keys to Victory
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Take Advantage of Short Third Downs
The Big Ten showdown will be classic football at its finest with a modern twist. Both teams want to run the football, though Northwestern spreads defenses out and Michigan plays from the traditional I-formation.
However, the Wolverines haven't converted short-yardage situations in a manner that would make old-school teams proud. According to Football Outsiders, the offense's power success rate* is 66.7 percent, which ranks 69th in the nation.
Ball control is imperative in a low-scoring game, so Michigan—which should have De'Veon Smith back after sitting one game out due to an ankle injury—must not let the easier conversions slip away.
* Football Outsiders defines power success rate as the percentage of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or fewer to go that result in a first down or touchdown.
Stay Disciplined
Though Northwestern focuses on the running game, its offense constantly pushes the pace. Per Football Outsiders, the Wildcats' adjusted pace is sixth-highest in the nation.
For comparison's sake, the perennially lauded and hyped Oregon Ducks offense has run the exact same number of plays as Northwestern at 79.8 per game. The Michigan defense, on the other hand, has only faced an average of 59.4 snaps.
Utah logged 70 during its victory over the Wolverines, and they surrendered a couple of explosive gains to the Utes—none more glaring than Travis Wilson's 14-yard touchdown run after a blown assignment.
If Michigan slips up, Clayton Thorson or Justin Jackson will likely make the defense pay.
Northwestern Wildcats Players to Watch
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Justin Jackson, Running Back
The term "bell-cow back" is misused in many cases, but Jackson represents a perfect definition. He leads the nation with 138 rushing attempts—27.6 per game.
While Jackson has an average of 127.2 yards, however, he lacks what running backs want the most: touchdowns. Thorson, the quarterback, has scored four times to Jackson's one.
Michigan has consistently shut down the opponent's top runner, even limiting Utah's Devontae Booker to 69 yards on 22 carries. But Jackson has rushed for at least 120 yards in four of five games.
Whichever side wins this battle will probably earn the victory.
Anthony Walker, Linebacker
Matthew Harris deserves attention for his three interceptions and six pass defenses, but Anthony Walker is the key to Northwestern stopping Michigan on Saturday.
Now, Walker can only be as effective as the Wildcats defensive line allows him to be. Northwestern must consistently gain the upper hand in the trenches against a Wolverines O-line that had a rough day at the Maryland Terrapins.
Nevertheless, the sophomore linebacker is a force. Walker has racked up a team-leading 44 tackles, including 8.5 for loss. He's added two fumble recoveries and a pair of pass breakups.
If Michigan struggles to reach the second level on Saturday, it's safe to assume the Northwestern defensive line created opportunities for Walker to finish plays—and he executed.
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Michigan Wolverines Players to Watch
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Jake Rudock, Quarterback
After five games, it's safe to say Jake Rudock is a little bit worse than expected. Last week, the Iowa Hawkeyes transfer threw his sixth interception and lost his second fumble of the year.
But Rudock isn't going anywhere. Harbaugh has previously said "Rudock is our best quarterback," per Kelly Hall of the Michigan Daily, and Rudock's "job is to win football games," according to Max Cohen of the Daily.
Michigan has reeled off four consecutive victories, so Rudock—no matter the ball-control issues—is technically doing his job. That doesn't mean there's no concern, especially since Northwestern ranks 25th in the country with 10 takeaways.
Rudock's turnovers inhibited the Wolverines' chances in the season opener. Michigan would certainly not like to test its luck opposite the Wildcats.
Royce Jenkins-Stone, "Buck" Linebacker
Mario Ojemudia was the defense's player to watch last week, but MLive's Nick Baumgardner notes Harbaugh said the Achilles injury is probably long term.
Royce Jenkins-Stone, a 6'2", 240-pound senior, is the next man up. He tallied a career-best four tackles against the Oregon State Beavers and managed two at Maryland. Jenkins-Stone's season total sits at 12—one of which was for loss.
Northwestern will test the linebacker's discipline right away. Improper reactions to read-option calls create running lanes, and Jenkins-Stone is a critical piece to either sealing the edge or eliminating a cutback lane.
Is he ready? It doesn't matter. Next man up.
What They're Saying
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Northwestern
According to the Chicago Tribune's Teddy Greenstein, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald believes the 2015 defense has a lot to prove but holds the potential to be better than the 1995 Rose Bowl-qualifying unit.
"I'm not ready to even put this group in the same category," Fitzgerald said. "We have a lot of chapters left to write. But if they continue to progress, I think it has a chance to be much better. It's much more athletic; it's much deeper."
Michigan
After the team's first road victory, Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press notes defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr. said Sunday on "Inside Michigan Football" the defense is focused on dominating from the start, no matter the venue.
"We really put an emphasis on coming into someone else's stadium and taking it over," Hurst said. "Don't let the environment change how you play. It doesn't matter if you play in the Big House or here or in the parking lot. It's how you play as a defense."
Prediction
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If there's anything the series' recent history has taught us, it's that things are going to get weird.
Michigan managed a one-point victory in 2014, and Drew Dileo's absurd slide-hold forced overtime in 2013, which gave the Wolverines their second straight OT win over the Wildcats.
The defenses are bound to dominate the day. However, Northwestern's red-zone woes will continue against the nation's No. 2 defense. Remember, field goals won't cut it.
Smith's return to the Michigan offense provides the winning difference, and the Wolverines survive a hard-fought homecoming game.
Prediction: Michigan 17, Northwestern 9
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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