Daily Fantasy Football October 4: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

The NFL gets a head start this Sunday, but don't let the early game interfere with perfecting Week 4 daily fantasy football lineups.

While the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins play in London, keep one eye on the action and another out for pertinent injury and lineup updates. Sometimes DraftKings contestants can out-think themselves at the last moment, but late decisions can pay off. Anyone who hustled to play Ryan Mathews and/or Darren Sproles last week can attest to staying on the ball before the games begin.

Heading into Sunday's slate, these select players are looking better than before because of altered circumstances. Some other guys, however, fall by the wayside due to injury or ineffectiveness.

Stock Up

RB Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks ($3,000)

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

On Saturday afternoon, Pro Football Talk reported that Marshawn Lynch is more likely than not to miss Monday night's bout with the Detroit Lions:

Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll created more concern with his cryptic comment, per 710 ESPN's Liz Mathews:

A week ago, this space would have instead belonged to Fred Jackson, but Thomas Rawls stole the show last Sunday. The undrafted rookie produced 104 yards on 16 carries against the Chicago Bears, immediately staking his claim as Lynch's handcuff.

Middle of the pack against the run, the Detroit Lions have allowed 3.7 yards per carry but rank No. 17 in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Before besting a frail Denver Broncos running game, they coughed up two touchdowns to Danny Woodhead and a massive outing from Adrian Peterson.

Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks playing on Monday makes Rawls a risky call. An inactive Lynch would make him one of the week's premier bargains, but he'd make a dull flex occupier backing up the veteran back. If Lynch ends up playing, DraftKings players tied to Rawls can swap him for Theo Riddick, who also costs $3,000 while averaging 11.6 points per game due to his pass-catching prowess.

WR Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers ($3,000)

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

When a wide receiver plays football with Aaron Rodgers, the fantasy community needs to take notice. Falling short of the initial Green Bay Packers buzz, Davante Adams is doubtful for Sunday with an ankle sprain, per the team's official Twitter page:

Once Adams went down on Monday night, Ty Montgomery stepped in to play 66 of 77 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. Although he only received two targets, he caught one in the end zone during Green Bay's 38-28 victory.

The rookie receiver will get regular playing time against the San Francisco 49ers, DraftKings' No. 28 defense against wideouts. Hemorrhaging 10.0 yards per pass attempt, they're about to get decimated by Rodgers and Co.

Go ahead and play Rodgers, Randall Cobb and/or James Jones, but don't forget about Montgomery as a minimum-priced tournament swing.

TE Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills ($3,300)

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Who needs Rob Gronkowski? In a week without the New England Patriots, save money at tight end by playing Charles Clay against the New York Giants.

The Buffalo Bills will face the Giants without their top two offensive weapons. Confirmed by the team's Twitter page, head coach Rex Ryan ruled out LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins:

Everyone with a computer, TV or mobile device knows by now to utilize Karlos Williams ($3,400) at running back. Clay, however, could become an even bigger benefactor versus the Giants, who have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to tight ends. According to ESPN.com, they have relinquished 20 catches to the position, which ranks No. 31 ahead of the Oakland Raiders.

Clay has worked his way into Tyrod Taylor's trust circle, receiving more targets and catches every week this season. With McCoy and Watkins unable to earn red-zone looks, he's also in a good position to score for the third straight week. For only $3,300, he's the perfect high-floor, high-ceiling bargain.

Stock Down

QB Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings ($5,700)

Andy Clayton-King/Associated Press

The Teddy Bridgewater bandwagon has stalled through September. It's not entirely his fault; he's completing 67.6 percent of his passes. No quarterback who has played all three games, however, has attempted fewer throws than his 74. On the other hand, Adrian Peterson entered Week 4 tied with Matt Forte with an NFL-high 59 carries.

After finishing his rookie campaign strong, Bridgewater is playing the game-manager role, limiting him to 168.3 yards per game and one touchdown. Unless the Minnesota Vikings open up the passing game, he holds minimal fantasy appeal.

This weekend, he'll be invisible in all DraftKings contests. Rated first in pass coverage and pass rush by Pro Football Focus, the Denver Broncos are a brutal matchup for any passer, let alone an average one. They have surrendered an NFL-low 176.3 yards per game, 5.8 yards per attempt and a 58.0 quarterback rating.

Not that he has helped at all this year, but Charles Johnson won't play due to a rib injury. In fact, Denver's defense ($3,300) is looking like a strong option.

San Diego Chargers

Jim Mone/Associated Press

The San Diego Chargers' No. 4 offense hosts the Cleveland Browns' No. 27 defense. Sounds good for Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson, right?

Hold up. Their offensive line is in shambles. According to the team's latest injury report, at least two and as many as four of their regular starters could sit out Sunday:

Position	Player	Injury	Status
LT	King Dunlap	Concussion	Out
LG	Orlando Franklin	Ankle	Out
C	Chris Watt	Groin	Doubtful
RG	D.J. Fluker	Ankle, Chest	Questionable

Those guys don't accumulate fantasy points, but their absence will prove noticeable when Rivers is running for life and Cleveland defenders are swarming Gordon near the line of scrimmage. Although the Browns rank last in rushing defense, the rookie rusher's golden matchup turns risky without blocking.

Before anticipating dump-offs to Woodhead, running backs have seven receptions against the Browns this season, per ESPN.com. His touches have also diminished each week, decreasing to eight last Sunday.

Note: Pricing and scoring information courtesy of DraftKings.com.

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