Ed Feng's Week 6 College Football Playoff Standings Predictions
How would the College Football Playoff committee rank teams this week? Which four schools would make the playoff?
We use analytics to make an educated guess on the committee rankings. The Associated Press poll provides a baseline for the Top 25 teams before the committee releases its first poll. My algorithm then adjusts teams based on the most recent opponent and margin of victory.
Teams that win keep their place unless they need overtime to beat Jacksonville State. Teams that lose drop, but not as much if they lose to a Top 10 team. You get the idea.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Let's look at the three most interesting movers from Week 5.
| Rank | Team | Result |
| 1 | Ohio State | Won at Indiana, 34-27 |
| 2 | Baylor | Won vs. Texas Tech, 63-35 |
| 3 | TCU | Won vs. Texas, 50-7 |
| 4 | Michigan State | Won vs. Purdue, 24-21 |
| 5 | Alabama | Won at Georgia, 38-10 |
| 6 | LSU | Won vs. Eastern Michigan, 44-22 |
| 7 | Utah | BYE |
| 8 | Florida State | Won at Wake Forest, 24-16 |
| 9 | Clemson | Won vs. Notre Dame, 24-22 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | Won vs. Mississippi State, 30-17 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | Won vs. West Virginia, 44-24 |
| 12 | Northwestern | Won vs. Minnesota, 27-0 |
| 13 | Notre Dame | Lost at Clemson, 24-22 |
| 14 | Ole Miss | Lost at Florida, 38-10 |
| 15 | USC | BYE |
| 16 | Stanford | Won vs. Arizona, 55-17 |
| 17 | UCLA | Lost vs. Arizona State, 38-23 |
| 18 | Florida | Won vs. Ole Miss, 38-10 |
| 19 | Georgia | Lost vs. Alabama, 38-10 |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | Won vs. Kansas State, 36-34 |
| 21 | Michigan | Won at Maryland, 28-0 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | Lost vs. Iowa, 10-6 |
| 23 | Cal | Won vs. Washington State, 34-28 |
| 24 | Toledo | Won at Ball State, 24-10 |
| 25 | Oregon | Won at Colorado, 41-24 |
Alabama storms up rankings with definitive win
Did you give up on Alabama after its loss to Ole Miss?
The AP pollsters sure did. Alabama dropped from second to 12th after the six-point loss in Week 2. They didn't seem to consider a fortunate tipped pass that went for an Ole Miss touchdown or that Alabama had a chance to win in the final minute.
Alabama didn't give up on itself. The Crimson Tide stormed back up the rankings with a definitive 38-10 win at Georgia this week.
While Alabama dominated all phases of the game, the pass defense stood out. Georgia had thrown for more than 10 yards per attempt (including negative sack plays) before this game. The Bulldogs aired it out for just 103 yards on 3.4 yards per attempt against the Tide.
After five weeks of the season, Nick Saban has his team in a familiar position: the middle of the national championship chase.
Fighting Irish still in contention for a playoff spot
Clemson held off a surging Notre Dame team for a dramatic 24-22 win. The win moves the Tigers up to ninth in the rankings and puts them in playoff contention.
However, don't count out Notre Dame just yet. The Fighting Irish outgained Clemson by 141 yards, proving they are valiantly overcoming season-ending injuries to key contributors on offense.
Notre Dame lost the game due to losing three fumbles in key situations. Randomness plays a big role in fumbles, so Saturday's performance doesn't make Notre Dame any more likely to fumble in the future.
My numbers make Notre Dame a favorite in each of its remaining games except at Stanford. Sitting at 13th in the committee rankings, this still makes the Irish a contender for the CFP.
Michigan State showing some cracks in the Spartan armor
While Michigan State is second in the AP poll, there have been numerous bad omens for this team.
The Spartans won a close game against Oregon, who got destroyed by Utah last week. Then, for consecutive weeks, Michigan State gained fewer yards than both Air Force and Central Michigan despite winning both games.
Early Saturday, Michigan State needed a last-minute defensive stand to beat Purdue, a team that has yet to beat an FBS opponent. The three-point win counts for negative style points with the committee.
Michigan State will not move in the AP poll. However, the playoff committee sees the problems with this team and drops it behind TCU.
Ed Feng has a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Stanford and runs the sports analytics site The Power Rank. You can find him on Twitter @thepowerrank.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
