Fantasy Football Week 4: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 4 of the fantasy football season is upon us, so it's time to once again look at some of the advanced stats and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

Cam Newton assumes the No. 3 spot among quarterbacks this week given his matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What can you expect from the dual-threat quarterback in Week 4?

At the running back position, the Oakland Raiders' Latavius Murray slips into the top five. This is in part because of his favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears, but it’s also because he really is that good. We have the stats and metrics to back it up.

Let’s get right to the stats and metrics that will help you dominate in Week 4.

Quarterbacks: Cam Newton Will Continue to Roll

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Cam Newton

Cam Newton has been an elite fantasy football quarterback through three weeks this season. This has been something of a surprise—the undeniable lack of weapons around him was supposed to hold him down—but he isn’t nicknamed Superman for nothing. Newton will continue to roll in Week 4 when the Carolina Panthers square off against the Buccaneers.

The Projections

1. Aaron Rodgers (at SF): 25-of-32, 333 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—25.3 fantasy points
2. Andrew Luck (vs. JAC): 31-of-47, 354 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—24.2 fantasy points
3. Cam Newton (at TB): 21-of-33, 247 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 63 rushing yards—24.2 fantasy points
4. Matt Ryan (vs. HOU): 24-of-38, 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22.2 fantasy points
5. Russell Wilson (vs. DET): 21-of-30, 252 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 34 rushing yards—21.5 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Houston Texans feature a fearsome defensive line—spearheaded by J.J. Watt—but that hasn't slowed down opposing quarterbacks this season. The Texans have given up the fifth-most (tied) fantasy points to quarterbacks through three weeks, per ESPN.com. Matt Ryan is a safe bet to finish near the top of the quarterback rankings in Week 4.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season, which is why Andrew Luck ranks so high despite his slow start to the season. If he doesn’t put up numbers against Jacksonville—which has given up nearly 300 passing yards per game—then maybe it will be time to re-evaluate Luck’s fantasy standing. Let’s give him another week, though.

Tyrod Taylor is a QB1 option this week. Not only have the New York Giants given up 1,035 passing yards to quarterbacks so far this season—worst in the league—but Taylor is also completing two-thirds (66.1 percent) of his passes, and he's averaging a respectable 8.1 yards per attempt as well. Throw in the fact he can score also on the ground, and it’s easy to love Taylor this week.

What the Metrics Say

Andy Dalton is scoring 0.74 fantasy points per dropback, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s tied with Aaron Rodgers for most in the league. With the Kansas City Chiefs on tap, Dalton should be considered a QB1 this week.

Need another reason to like Taylor? He has thrown four touchdowns on passes 20-plus yards down the field—most among all quarterbacks.

If the San Diego Chargers are able to establish the run against the Cleveland Browns (and the next slide explains why that shouldn’t be a problem), Philip Rivers could be in for a big game. He has completed all 17 of his pass attempts when throwing off of play action so far this season.

Running Backs: Latavius Murray an Elite Option in Week 4

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Latavius Murray

Le’Veon Bell was the consensus No. 1, but he played Thursday night (and lived up to expectations), so he’s not included here. By removing Bell from the equation, Murray is able to step into the No. 5 spot this week. This is the most valuable Murray has ever been from a fantasy perspective—will he live up to the expectations?

The Projections

1. Jamaal Charles (at CIN): 17 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdown; 5 receptions, 52 yards, 1 touchdown—26.5 fantasy points
2. Matt Forte (vs. OAK) 21 carries, 101 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 37 yards, 1 touchdown—25.8 fantasy points
3. Adrian Peterson (at DEN): 18 carries, 109 yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 receptions, 21 yards—25 fantasy points
4. Eddie Lacy (at SF) 22 carries, 115 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 27 yards—20.2 fantasy points
5. Latavius Murray (at CHI): 19 carries, 92 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 36 yards—18.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Browns have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com. This could be the breakout game Melvin Gordon owners have been waiting for.

If Arian Foster returns to action in Week 4, he could be set for a big game right off the bat. His Texans will face the Atlanta Falcons, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Running backs are averaging 31 fantasy points per game against the Falcons; the second worst team in the league against running backs (the San Diego Chargers) is allowing only 23.7 points per game.

If LeSean McCoy is a no-go—and Rex Ryan said earlier this week that it "doesn’t look good" for McCoy to play this week, per Mike Rodak of ESPN—Karlos Williams is a must-start in all formats. He has three touchdowns in three games and was able to rack up over 100 rushing yards on just 12 carries last week. Plus, he’ll be playing against the Giants, who have given up the 10th-most (tied) fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. Williams should be considered a tail-end RB1 if McCoy sits.

What the Metrics Say

Latavius Murray is averaging 2.87 average yards per attempt after contact—fifth-best in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. This type of elusiveness—combined with his breakaway potential—is why Murray continues to climb the ladder.

Through three weeks, Karlos Williams has scored nearly one full point per opportunity, with an opportunity defined as an attempt or a pass route run.

David Johnson has scored the second-most fantasy points per opportunity among running backs with at least 10 carries so far this season (behind Williams). Here's hoping the Arizona Cardinals try to get him the ball more.

Lance Dunbar is averaging 3.58 yards per pass route run this season, most among all running backs. Theo Riddick is second with 3.06 yards per route run. Neither player is his team’s primary back, but their efficiency through the air keeps them relevant in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

Wide Receivers: A.J. Green Set for a Big Encore

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A.J. Green

Julio Jones is now undeniably the No. 1 fantasy option at wideout—at least while Ben Roethlisberger is injured, which limits Antonio Brown—but there is plenty of jockeying for the other spots in the top five. Odell Beckham Jr. has put together back-to-back solid games, while Randall Cobb is coming off a monster Monday Night Football performance. Meanwhile, A.J. Green has arguably the best Week 4 matchup of the bunch.

The Projections

1. Julio Jones (vs. HOU): 10 receptions, 113 yards, 1 touchdown—17.3 fantasy points
2. Odell Beckham Jr. (at BUF): 8 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown—16.7 fantasy points
3. Randall Cobb (at SF): 7 receptions, 92 yards, 1 touchdown—15.2 fantasy points
4. A.J. Green (vs. KC): 6 receptions, 91 yards, 1 touchdown—15.1 fantasy points
5. Demaryius Thomas (vs. MIN): 8 receptions, 143 yards, 0 touchdowns—14.3 fantasy points

Stats to Know

We predicted in this space last week that Cobb would have a big game against the Chiefs. Three touchdowns later, it’s Cincinnati’s Green to dominate the Chiefs. Kansas City has given up 57 receptions (most), 750 yards (second-most) and nine touchdowns (most) to opposing wideouts so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Another 200-plus-yard game may not be realistic for Green, but another big day is almost assured.

Rookie Amari Cooper has been getting all the love in recent weeks, but his teammate Michael Crabtree could also be in for a big game in Week 4. The Bears have given up the fourth-most (tied) fantasy points to wideouts so far this season, per ESPN.com. Cooper has put up back-to-back 100-yard games, and Crabtree is just one week removed from a nine-catch, 111-yard, one-touchdown game of his own. Another 100-plus yards for both of them could be in the cards.

It’s time to put Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Charles Johnson on the fantasy bench, at least until he shows us something. Week 4 will probably not be when that happens. The Vikings play against the Denver Broncos, the only team in the league that has yet to allow a wide receiver to score against it. Mike Wallace is benchable this week as well.

What the Metrics Say

When Larry Fitzgerald is lined up in the slot, he has averaged 3.23 yards per route run—most in the league among qualifying wideouts by a wide margin. He has run over half (58.9 percent) of his snaps from the slot, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Miami Dolphins' Rishard Matthews is scoring nearly one fantasy point every three snaps so far this season, making him the fourth-most efficient wide receiver in that regard.

James Jones is not all about touchdowns. He is averaging 15.6 yards per target—second-highest mark in the league among qualifying wide receivers. Jones’ early-season success is no fluke.

Tight Ends: Martellus Bennett to Feast on the Raiders

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Martellus Bennett

Even with Rob Gronkowski on bye this week, the tight end position is loaded with talent. Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham occupy the first three spots this week, and Martellus Bennett is a slam-dunk option because he faces Oakland, a team that has let every wide receiver it has faced so far this season walk all over it.

The Projections

1. Greg Olsen (at TB): 6 receptions, 98 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points
2. Travis Kelce (at CIN): 6 receptions, 89 yards, 1 touchdown—14.9 fantasy points
3. Jimmy Graham (vs. DET): 5 receptions, 77 yards, 1 touchdown—13.7 fantasy points
4. Martellus Bennett (vs. OAK): 7 receptions, 75 yards, 1 touchdown—13.5 fantasy points
5. Tyler Eifert (at BAL): 5 fantasy points, 69 yards, 1 touchdown—12.9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Raiders have given up the most receptions, yards and touchdowns—and thus fantasy points—to opposing tight ends so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Martellus Bennett is a lock to finish as a TE1.

Charles Clay could be in for his second straight big week. He plays against the Giants in Week 4, a team that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far. The Giants are the only team other than the Raiders to have allowed at least 20 receptions to tight ends through three weeks in 2015.

Jordan Reed has moved into must-start territory, but his Week 4 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles isn’t the greatest. Philadelphia has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far this season.

What the Metrics Say

Tyler Eifert put up a goose egg in Week 3, but he’s one of the five most efficient tight ends when it comes to fantasy points per opportunity (carries plus routes run, as defined by Pro Football Focus). Eifert’s Week 3 score of zero is the anomaly.

Travis Kelce is one of the best when it comes to running after the catch. He averages 9.1 yards after the catch, second-best in the league among tight ends that have at least 10 receptions this year.

Larry Donnell is seeing TE1-like volume (he’s currently tied for 11th among all tight ends with 16 targets), but he’ll need to stop dropping the ball if he wants to climb the rankings. Donnell leads all tight ends with a 16.67 percent drop rate. The problem seems correctable, however, as Donnell dropped less than six percent of the catchable passes thrown his way last season.

Kickers: Hauschka, Crosby Top Week 4 Rankings

Don Wright/Associated Press

Mason Crosby

Steven Hauschka (Seattle Seahawks) and Mason Crosby (Green Bay Packers) top the kicker rankings this week, as neither offense should have trouble getting in scoring range. Brandon McManus and Adam Vinatieri are also top-five options this week for the same reason.

The Projections

1. Steven Hauschka (vs. DET): 3-3 FGs, 3-3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Mason Crosby (at SF): 2-2 FGs, 4-4 XPs—10 fantasy points
3. Matt Bryant (vs. HOU): 2-2 FGs, 3-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Brandon McManus (vs. MIN): 2-2 FGs, 3-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Adam Vinatieri (vs. JAC): 1-1 FGs, 4-4 XPs—7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Rookie Buccaneers kicker Kyle Brindza had a rough game in Week 3, missing several field goals and an extra-point attempt. Things may not be much easier in Week 4, as Tampa Bay’s next opponent (Carolina) has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to kickers so far this season, per ESPN.com.

The Texans have had a league-high four field goals from 50-plus yards away be attempted against them so far this season, but only one of those field goals was made. Atlanta’s Matt Bryant will look to buck that trend in a dome in Week 4.

Vinatieri hasn’t had the best start to the season—he has two attempts and two misses through three weeks—but he finds himself ranked No. 5 this week because the Indianapolis Colts play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to kickers.

Defense and Special Teams: Buffalo in Top 5

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A handful of top defenses get favorable matchups in Week 4, as all the top D/STs listed below are playing against below-average offenses. Usually, a sneaky stream option or two will slip into the top five, but this week, the big dogs reign supreme.

The Projections

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET): 14 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 2 sacks
2. Arizona Cardinals (vs. STL): 20 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 3 sacks
3. Denver Broncos (vs. MIN): 20 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 3 sacks
4. Carolina Panthers (at TB): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
5. Buffalo Bills (vs. NYG): 21 points allowed, 2 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Stats to Know

Seattle is interceptionless through three games. With Matthew Stafford—who has thrown for nearly two interceptions per game so far this season—coming to town, that should change. (The same thing was more or less written about Jimmy Clausen last week, but the second time is the charm, right?)

Green Bay will be a popular streaming D/ST this week as the Packers face the San Francisco 49ers. It’s hard not to like Green Bay’s D/ST after watching Colin Kaepernick throw two straight pick-sixes against the Cardinals in Week 3.

Just keep things in perspective, though: Before allowing 30 fantasy points to the Arizona D/ST in Week 3, the 49ers gave up just four points per game to opposing D/ST units in Weeks 1 (against Minnesota) and 2 (at Pittsburgh).

The Raiders could also be a streaming option this week, as they play against the Bears, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing D/ST units and have allowed three D/ST touchdowns over the past two weeks. 

Only three starting quarterbacks have yet to throw an interception this season: Tom Brady (makes sense), Aaron Rodgers (makes sense) and Eli Manning (what?). Manning has gone four games in a row without an interception only once in his 12-year career. He’s a turnover waiting to happen, and Rex Ryan's Buffalo Bills will take advantage of it.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the "Stats to Know" sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the "Metrics to Know" sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.