Giants at Bills: Full Buffalo Game Preview

The Buffalo Bills, looking to build on last week’s victory over the Miami Dolphins, host the New York Giants on Sunday in the teams’ first meeting since 2011.

Buffalo (2-1) throttled the Dolphins last week, limiting Miami to 14 points and intercepting Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill three times. It was an encouraging rebound for the Bills defense, which surrendered 40 points to New England in Week 2. And it was Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s best performance yet, as he finished with 277 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 95.3 quarterback rating. 

The Giants (1-2), meanwhile, earned their first victory of the year last week, holding onto a second-half lead at home against Washington. New York quarterback Eli Manning finished with 279 yards and two touchdowns, while wideout Rueben Randle caught seven passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. Randle’s emergence could be a difference-maker for the Giants, as the team looks to support Manning and star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. 

Sunday’s game involves a handful of interesting storylines.

For one thing, this week should be consequential in the AFC East, as New England has a bye week and the New York Jets visit Miami. If Miami can knock off the Jets, Buffalo would sit alone in second place, one game behind New England.

Given Buffalo’s 16-year playoff drought, and given New England’s recent divisional dominance, the Bills need to exploit every possible opportunity to make up ground in the East. 

For another, the Giants expect to have wideout Victor Cruz back for the first time this season. If Cruz is healthy, and given Randle’s performance last week, this could be one of the more fearsome corps of receivers the Bills face all year. Cruz and Beckham are legitimate downfield and red-zone weapons, and Randle is a bruiser of a receiver. Buffalo’s secondary will have its hands full. 

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, New York

TV: FOX

News and Notes

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Tyrod Taylor

Two particular items of note here. 

One, Buffalo QB Taylor is off to a sizzling start. His turnovers hurt Buffalo in Week 2, but frankly, the Bills did not lose to New England because of Taylor. In fact, as Brian Galliford of BuffaloRumblings.com noted on Tuesday, Taylor is off to the best start for a Bills quarterback since 2011, when Ryan Fitzpatrick won Offensive Player of the Month honors for September. 

Of course, the 2011 Bills finished 6-10. There’s no reason to celebrate yet. But Taylor’s start is a tremendously positive sign, mostly because the 2015 Bills are dramatically more talented than their 2011 counterparts.

Not only should Taylor benefit from a strong supporting cast, but Fitzpatrick in 2011 had already spent six years as an NFL quarterback. Taylor hasn’t started six games. He’ll only get better. 

Two, Buffalo running back Karlos Williams has quickly made a name for himself. A fifth-round pick in this year’s NFL draft, Williams’ off-field issues in college discouraged pro scouts, and the Bills were the only team to meet with him. That move appears to have paid off. 

Williams has three touchdowns in three games and has repeatedly demonstrated the brute speed that made him one of the nation’s most explosive players in college. Given LeSean McCoy’s health concerns—more on that in a minute—and Taylor’s inexperience, Williams may be headed for a greater role in the team’s offense. 

Injury Update

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

LeSean McCoy

Buffalo’s injury problems just keep on coming. 

First, safety Aaron Williams—who suffered a terrifying concussion in Week 2 against New England—participated in limited practice on Wednesday. He missed last week’s game and may not play against the Giants, as ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak reported. 

Furthermore, as Rodak also explained, McCoy and wideout Sammy Watkins did not practice at all on Wednesday. McCoy has battled hamstring issues since the preseason, and Watkins exited during the first quarter of last week’s game with a calf injury. 

Those three—Aaron Williams, McCoy and Watkins—represent three of Buffalo’s most talented, important players. Williams’ absence on Sunday would be especially detrimental, as the Giants’ receivers pose a far greater test than Miami’s. This may prove especially true where players like Randle are concerned; such players often require multiple defenders to bring them down. Williams’ physicality will be missed if he doesn’t play.

(On the other hand, Williams was carted off the field in Week 2 after suffering his concussion—in the scheme of things, it’s really not that important if he plays on Sunday. He will hopefully be at full health soon.)

Luckily, Buffalo has some leeway at those positions. McCoy’s struggles so far in 2015 have been offset by Karlos Williams’ quick start, and Williams should expect to see a lot—if not all—of Buffalo’s carries on Sunday. And Watkins’ similarly underwhelming outset has gone somewhat under the radar as Percy Harvin and Charles Clay picked up the slack.

Key Matchup

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Ronald Darby in Week 1

Ronald Darby vs. Odell Beckham Jr.

Darby has been a mainstay in our previews this season, and it’s the same story this week. After an inconsistent preseason, Darby was perhaps the biggest question mark in Buffalo’s secondary; now, after injuries to both Aaron Williams and Corey Graham, Darby has emerged as a solid NFL starter. 

Darby’s two interceptions are tied with Preston Brown for most on the team, although both of Brown’s picks came during last week’s game. And Darby has routinely matched up against the other team’s best wideout, at times guarding Indianapolis Colts star T.Y. Hilton, New England’s Julian Edelman and Miami’s Rishard Matthews. 

Beckham, however, poses an entirely different challenge.

Hilton may be bigger in terms of size (he has about 50 pounds on Beckham), and—statistically speaking—he has posted faster 40-yard dash times.  Hilton, Calvin Johnson and others may be taller, or faster, or have superior combine stats. But Beckham is a once-in-a-lifetime receiver: His hands, leaping ability and timing are unparalleled, his downfield speed is elite and his acrobatic talent gives him a catching radius far larger than almost anyone else in the league. 

As Rodak noted earlier this week, Darby leads the NFL in passes defensed. And, as Rodak explored in detail, nearly all of his defensed passes were legitimate.

Darby has the size to match up with Beckham: The two are both 5’11”, while Beckham weighs five pounds more than Darby. The real key for Darby will be maintaining his mental focus, as Beckham has a tendency to explode for big plays when the defense is sleeping. 

X-Factor

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

NYG QB Eli Manning

NYG QB Eli Manning

As has been widely reported, Manning has yet to throw an interception this season.

Two of the defenses he’s played—Washington and the Dallas Cowboys—have above average secondaries. And Buffalo, incredibly, ranks 31st out of 32 NFL teams in passing defense thus far. It would appear to be a favorable matchup for the Giants, especially given Buffalo’s injury woes. 

However, the statistics are a bit misleading. Buffalo ranks 31st in total passing yards allowed and in average passing yards allowed per game. But those numbers are inflated by having played two elite quarterbacks—Andrew Luck and Tom Brady—one of whom (Brady) passed for over 400 yards. Given that only three games have been played, it’s safe to say Buffalo’s secondary is better than its rank suggests. 

Furthermore, Buffalo ranks third in the NFL with five interceptions. While that statistic may also be artificially inflated—at least two Buffalo interceptions have come in what might fairly be called “garbage time”—it does speak to the athleticism in the Bills secondary. And, when facing Beckham and Victor Cruz, athleticism will be key. 

Prediction

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Karlos Williams

Bills 27, Giants 20

The Giants offense has been consistent in its output, scoring 26, 20 and 21 points in Weeks 1-3, respectively. And two of the Giants' opponents—Washington and Dallas—boast two of the NFL’s top eight defenses in terms of yards allowed per game. So it’s fair to assume New York will put some points on the board. 

And the injuries to McCoy, Watkins and Aaron Williams bear watching. Buffalo will rely heavily on Harvin and Karlos Williams to score points, and that may be prove troublesome. 

But here’s the thing: In terms of talent and physicality, and despite what the stats say, Buffalo’s defense is an entirely new animal for Eli Manning & Co. Not only will Manning face an athletic, energetic secondary, but he’ll be dealing with one of the league’s most fearsome pass rushes. Regardless of Cruz’s return, the Giants are not New England, and they are probably not even Indianapolis. 

If Taylor plays well, as I suspect he will, Buffalo will be in the game all along. It will be especially important for Karlos Williams to build on last week’s performance. 

Buffalo should view this as a trap game. They should win. They’ve played tougher competition, emerged with two victories to the Giants’ one and—all things equal—Buffalo still has one of the NFL’s two or three top defenses.

But Eli Manning has a habit of winning as an underdog, Beckham is among the league’s most dangerous offensive players and—in a weak NFC East—this game is a big opportunity for the Giants. Buffalo cannot be complacent in this one.