Breaking Down Potential 2015 Do-or-Die Wild Card Game Pitching Matchups
The MLB postseason is rapidly approaching, as things will kick off with the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday, Oct. 6, and the NL Wild Card Game on Wednesday, Oct. 7.
The National League playoff picture is essentially set after the Chicago Cubs clinched a postseason spot Friday night, but the three NL Central contenders are still jostling for position.
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently three games up on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the race for the division title, while the Pirates hold a 4.5-game lead over the Cubs for the No. 1 wild-card spot thanks to their current seven-game winning streak.
On the American League side of things, the New York Yankees look like a safe bet to be hosting the Wild Card Game, as they trail the Toronto Blue Jays by four games in the AL East standings but have a 4.5-game lead for the No. 1 wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, three teams are battling for that final playoff spot, as the Houston Astros currently hold a slim half-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels. The Minnesota Twins are close behind at 1.5 games back.
Looking ahead to those two exciting do-or-die playoff games, there appear to be four potential matchups we could see.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Now, there is obviously still a chance both the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees climb into first place, which would push the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays into the Wild Card Game, but for the sake of this article, those are the four potential matchups we'll be focusing on.
So let's dive into the potential pitching matchups of those four games, with a look at how pitchers have fared against the opposing lineup and a predicted outcome.
The Projected AL Starters
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American League
RHP Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
| 25 | 11-9 | 4.43 | 4.72 | 1.289 | 16 | 94 | 154.1 | 1.8 |
The decision for the Twins would appear to be between Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson to get the Wild Card Game start. While Gibson is having the better season overall, he was shelled in his two regular-season starts against the Yankees (10.1 IP, 10 H, 12 ER), so Hughes looks like the choice.
LHP Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
| 31 | 18-8 | 2.51 | 2.90 | 1.023 | 47 | 203 | 219.0 | 6.9 |
There's no question Dallas Keuchel would be taking the mound for the Astros in the Wild Card Game, as he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and has absolutely owned the Yankees in their head-to-head matchups.
RHP Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
| 30 | 15-11 | 3.73 | 3.90 | 1.244 | 70 | 163 | 195.1 | 1.7 |
With Hector Santiago falling off dramatically in the second half and Jered Weaver similarly struggling since he returned from the disabled list, it looks like a choice between Garrett Richards and rookie Andrew Heaney for the Angels. Richards is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and .203 opponent batting average in five September starts, so he should get the nod.
RHP Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
| 23 | 12-7 | 3.38 | 3.96 | 0.987 | 26 | 136 | 149.0 | 3.1 |
Masahiro Tanaka was scratched from his last start with a mild right hamstring strain, but he is nonetheless expected to be the guy on the mound for the one-game playoff. However, he still felt discomfort after a bullpen session Friday, according to Dan Martin of the New York Post, so his health will be worth monitoring down the stretch.
The Projected NL Starters
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National League
RHP Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
| 31 | 20-6 | 1.88 | 2.44 | 0.903 | 48 | 220 | 216.0 | 8.0 |
While you can make a case for Jon Lester being the pick here given his postseason track record, there's no way the Cubs won't turn to Arrieta, who has been absolutely untouchable for the better part of three months. In his last 18 starts, he's gone 14-1 with a 0.94 ERA, 0.746 WHIP and a .158 opponent batting average.
RHP Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
| 31 | 18-8 | 2.60 | 2.61 | 1.095 | 44 | 200 | 201.0 | 4.4 |
Francisco Liriano is still an option for the Pirates, and he's fared well against the Cubs throughout his career, but all signs point to Gerrit Cole getting the start at this time. The team skipped him in the rotation for some extra rest earlier this month, but that also set him up for full rest heading into the Wild Card Game.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
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Dallas Keuchel vs. New York Yankees
2015 Head-to-Head Meetings
- June 25: W, 9.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
- Aug. 25: W, 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Vs. Projected NYY Starting Lineup
| CF Jacoby Ellsbury | 2-for-7, 1 BB, 1 K |
| 3B Chase Headley | 3-for-13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 K |
| DH Alex Rodriguez | 1-for-7, 4 K |
| RF Carlos Beltran | 4-for-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 K |
| LF Chris Young | 6-for-20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 K |
| C Brian McCann | 0 PA |
| 1B Greg Bird | 0-for-1, 1 K |
| SS Didi Gregorius | 0-for-2, 1 K |
| 2B Stephen Drew | 0-for-4, 2 K |
Keuchel was brilliant in his two meetings against the Yankees this season, and he allowed three runs over eight innings in his lone start against them last year. Anything before that is really irrelevant, as he has completely turned a corner since the start of 2014.
The big decision for the Yankees will be how to get Chris Young, who has hit lefties to the tune of a .322/.385/.566 line this year and has good career numbers against Keuchel, into the lineup.
Brett Gardner is 0-for-4 in his career against Keuchel. While benching him would be tough in a one-game playoff, it looks like the right move on paper.
Masahiro Tanaka vs. Houston Astros
2015 Head-to-Head Meetings
- June 27: ND, 5.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Vs. Projected HOU Starting Lineup
| 2B Jose Altuve | 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 K |
| RF George Springer | 1-for-1, 2 BB |
| SS Carlos Correa | 2-for-3, 1 HR |
| CF Carlos Gomez | 2-for-2, 1 2B |
| 3B Jed Lowrie | 0-for-3, 1 K |
| DH Evan Gattis | 0-for-3 |
| LF Colby Rasmus | 0-for-3, 1 K |
| 1B Luis Valbuena | 3-for-9, 2 2B, 2 K |
| C Jason Castro | 0-for-2, 2 K |
The Astros tagged Tanaka for six earned runs and three home runs in five innings earlier this season, but he's still capable of shutting down their offense if he has his best stuff.
Luis Valbuena is the only player on the Astros roster with more than three career plate appearances against Tanaka, so there's a good chance he gets the start at first base over Chris Carter, despite the fact that Carter was one of the three guys to take Tanaka deep earlier this year.
The health of Carlos Gomez is the other big question mark, as he continues to work his way back from an intercostal strain. If he's not able to play, Jake Marisnick would likely play center field and hit ninth, with everyone else sliding up a spot in the order.
Predicted Outcome: Astros 4, Yankees 2
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Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
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Garrett Richards vs. New York Yankees
2015 Head-to-Head Matchups
- June 6: L, 0.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Vs. Projected NYY Starting Lineup
| CF Jacoby Ellsbury | 0-for-5 |
| LF Brett Gardner | 2-for-7, 1 K |
| DH Alex Rodriguez | 1-for-3 |
| C Brian McCann | 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 K |
| RF Carlos Beltran | 1-for-4 |
| 1B Greg Bird | 0 PA |
| 3B Chase Headley | 1-for-1 |
| 2B Dustin Ackley | 6-for-24, 1 2B, 3 K |
| SS Didi Gregorius | 1-for-1 |
Richards' one start against the Yankees earlier this year was an absolute disaster, as he didn't make it out of the first inning. But it was also a turning point of sorts, as he's gone 10-7 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 20 starts since.
He did face the Yankees once last season, allowing three hits and two earned runs over seven innings in a no-decision, and that may be a better indication of what he's capable of in a do-or-die setting.
Dustin Ackley has seen Richards more than anyone on the Yankees roster with 26 plate appearances against him, so he seems like a good candidate for a start at second base over Stephen Drew.
Masahiro Tanaka vs. Los Angeles Angels
2015 Head-to-Head Matchups
- None
Vs. Projected LAA Starting Lineup
| SS Erick Aybar | 1-for-3, 1 2B, 2 K |
| RF Kole Calhoun | 0 PA |
| CF Mike Trout | 1-for-3, 2 K |
| DH Albert Pujols | 0-for-2, 1 K |
| LF David Murphy | 1-for-3, 1 K |
| 1B C.J. Cron | 0 PA |
| 3B David Freese | 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 K |
| C Carlos Perez | 0 PA |
| 2B Johnny Giavotella | 0 PA |
Tanaka has not faced the Angels this season, but he was dominant in his lone appearance against them last year when he allowed five hits and two runs while striking out a season-high 11 in 6.1 innings of work.
David DeJesus has seen Tanaka more than anyone else on the Angels roster, going 4-for-8 with two strikeouts against him, so there's a chance he could sneak into the starting lineup in place of David Murphy.
The Angels have not played well on the road this season, going 34-43 away from Angel Stadium, so this one looks like advantage Yankees.
Predicted Outcome: Yankees 5, Angels 3
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
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Phil Hughes vs. New York Yankees
2015 Head-to-Head Matchups
- July 24: W, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
vs. Projected NYY Starting Lineup
| CF Jacoby Ellsbury | 7-for-26, 2 2B, 3 K |
| LF Brett Gardner | 2-for-10, 1 3B, 2 K |
| DH Alex Rodriguez | 1-for-3, 1 K |
| C Brian McCann | 1-for-9, 3 K |
| RF Carlos Beltran | 1-for-6, 1 HR, 2 K |
| 1B Greg Bird | 0 PA |
| 3B Chase Headley | 4-for-7 |
| 2B Dustin Ackley | 5-for-16, 1 3B, 3 K |
| SS Didi Gregorius | 4-for-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 K |
Hughes was a Yankees first-round pick in 2004, and he went 56-50 with a 4.53 ERA in seven seasons with the team before joining the Twins in free agency prior to the 2014 season.
He's faced his former team three times since leaving, going 2-1 with a 3.80 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in 21.1 innings of work.
It's worth mentioning that Hughes has pitched significantly better at home (15 GS, 9-3, 3.87 ERA) this season while struggling on the road (11 GS, 2-6, 5.18 ERA), and his dominant start against the Yankees earlier this year did come at Target Field.
Masahiro Tanaka vs. Minnesota Twins
2015 Head-to-Head Matchups
- None
vs. Projected MIN Starting Lineup
| CF Aaron Hicks | 0-for-3, 2 K |
| 2B Brian Dozier | 2-for-7, 1 K |
| 1B Joe Mauer | 0-for-4, 2 K |
| DH Miguel Sano | 0 PA |
| 3B Trevor Plouffe | 2-for-6, 1 2B, 1 K |
| RF Torii Hunter | 0 PA |
| LF Eddie Rosario | 0 PA |
| C Kurt Suzuki | 1-for-3, 1 2B, 1 K |
| SS Eduardo Escobar | 3-for-7 |
Tanaka has not faced the Twins this season, but he pitched well against them in two starts last season when he went 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 15 innings of work.
It's important to note, though, those lineups did not feature Miguel Sano or Eddie Rosario. Both have put together terrific rookie seasons and undoubtedly make the Twins lineup better than it was a year ago.
There's a good chance he returns next season, but there's an outside chance this could be the last game of Torii Hunter's career if the Twins are in fact eliminated, so that's something to keep in mind while watching one of the better all-around outfielders of the generation.
Predicted Outcome: Yankees 6, Twins 4
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Jake Arrieta vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
2015 Head-to-Head Matchups
- April 20: W, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
- May 17: L, 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
- Aug. 4: W, 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
- Sept. 16: ND, 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
vs. Projected PIT Starting Lineup
| RF Gregory Polanco | 2-for-13, 4 K |
| LF Starling Marte | 4-for-14, 2 K |
| CF Andrew McCutchen | 8-for-21, 2 2B, 6 K |
| 3B Aramis Ramirez | 2-for-16, 1 K |
| 1B Pedro Alvarez | 2-for-15, 1 HR, 3 K |
| C Francisco Cervelli | 2-for-11, 4 K |
| 2B Neil Walker | 4-for-23, 1 2B, 5 K |
| SS Jordy Mercer | 0-for-2 |
| SP Gerrit Cole | 0 PA |
Arrieta has one more start against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, and he has completely dominated them so far this season. That can be said about most teams the breakout star has toed the rubber against in 2015, though.
In his four starts this year against the Pirates, he's gone 2-1 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.759 WHIP, and that comes after he somehow managed to avoid facing them last season.
The Pirates could go a few different routes with their lineup, but expect to see Pedro Alvarez get the start at first base and Neil Walker get the nod over Josh Harrison, despite both players having less-than-stellar numbers against Arrieta.
Gerrit Cole vs. Chicago Cubs
2015 Head-to-Head Matchups
- April 29: W, 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
- May 16: L, 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
- Sept. 15: ND, 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
- Sept. 25: W, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
vs. Projected CHC Starting Lineup
| CF Dexter Fowler | 3-for-14, 4 K |
| LF Kyle Schwarber | 1-for-5, 1 K |
| 3B Kris Bryant | 3-for-9, 6 K |
| 1B Anthony Rizzo | 6-for-17, 1 2B, 3 K |
| RF Jorge Soler | 2-for-7, 2 K |
| C Miguel Montero | 3-for-5, 1 K |
| 2B Starlin Castro | 6-for-17, 4 K |
| SS Addison Russell | 2-for-7, 2 K |
| SP Jake Arrieta | 0 PA |
Arrieta and Cole have yet to go head-to-head this year. Cole has gone 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his four starts against Chicago.
Cole has seen plenty of the Cubs in his three big league seasons, and in nine total starts he's gone 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.101 WHIP and 69 strikeouts in 56.1 innings.
The Cubs will likely go with the hot bat of Jorge Soler in right field over Chris Coghlan (2-for-13, 5 K vs. Cole) and opt for Starlin Castro over Javier Baez (1-for-6, HR, 3 K) at second base despite the fact that Baez took him deep last year.
Predicted Outcome: Cubs 5, Pirates 0
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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