Buffalo at Miami: Full Bills Game Preview

The Buffalo Bills, hoping to recover from last week's loss against New England, travel to Florida on Sunday for a matchup with the Miami Dolphins. Both teams enter Sunday’s game on the heels of disappointing losses, hoping to improve upon 1-1 records and make up ground against the Patriots and New York Jets, who lead the AFC East after 2-0 starts. 

Much of the focus this week will revolve around Buffalo’s vaunted defense, which surrendered 40 points last week after a stellar Week 1 outing against Indianapolis. Many expected the Bills defensive squad to be among the league’s best, and Buffalo fans are hoping last week’s performance was an aberration; if the team is to break its 16-year playoff drought, those hopes had better be well-founded. 

Miami poses an intriguing collection of challenges. For one thing, defensive tackle and prized offseason pickup Ndamukong Suh remains one of the league’s most fearsome defensive weapons. Suh has started slow—just three tackles through two games—but will nevertheless pose a unique challenge for Buffalo’s offensive line. 

For another, Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has steadily improved in each of his four seasons. Tannehill took over as starting quarterback in 2012, and since then, his completions, completion percentage, touchdowns, yards and quarterback rating have improved noticeably every year. There is little reason to think this year won’t be the same. And on Sunday, Tannehill will benefit from an explosive, talented group of receiving targets. 

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

News and Notes

Bill Wippert/Associated Press/Associated Press

Buffalo backup QB E.J. Manuel

There are two particular items of note here. First, the Bills traded backup quarterback Matt Cassel to the Dallas Cowboys on Tuesday, as ESPN.com reported. Cassel will take over as Dallas’ interim backup, while Brandon Weeden replaces the injured Tony Romo. 

The trade, of course, was prompted by Romo’s injury. At this point, Cassel is the virtual epitome of a reliable backup quarterback, and that’s exactly what Dallas needed. But the move does bear deeper consideration. As ESPN’s Mike Rodak noted on Wednesday, trading Cassel can certainly be viewed as a sign of faith in EJ Manuel, the team’s first-round pick in 2013. 

But it could also be seen as a bizarre series of front-office decisions in Buffalo. As Rodak explained, if Manuel was good enough to be Taylor’s backup, he shouldn’t have been listed behind Cassel on the depth chart in the first place; and if Cassel was a dependable backup, one wonders why the Bills let him go for only a fifth-round pick. 

Second, while the entire Buffalo defense deserves scrutiny, this week’s performance in the secondary will be of particular note. Tannehill’s three favorite targets—Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and Jordan Cameron—will likely face a Bills secondary even more depleted than the one Tom Brady dismantled last week. 

Injury Update

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy struggled his way to 41 rushing yards in Buffalo’s season opener before finishing with 89 on the ground last week. The team needs 89 yards to be a benchmark for McCoy, something Buffalo’s most touted offseason acquisition accomplishes on a regular basis. But McCoy, who battled hamstring issues throughout the preseason, may not be fully healthy. 

As Rodak reported on Twitter, McCoy sat out of practice Wednesday, along with starting wideout Percy Harvin. Harvin has also fought health issues—for most of his career—and has thus far been the favorite target of starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Both will almost certainly play on Sunday, but depending on your perspective, their continued rehabilitation may be either good or bad news: Either the two are not yet at full strength, meaning their best is yet to come, or they can’t seem to beat their health issues. 

Safety Aaron Williams, who was carted off the field during last week’s game after suffering a concussion, did not practice Wednesday, as Buffalo News beat writer Vic Carucci reported on Twitter. According to Rodak, Williams is “a stretch” to play Sunday. 

Finally, on a more positive note, Rodak also reported that Buffalo receiver Marquise Goodwin appeared in his first practice since August. Goodwin has battled a wrist injury for weeks; his presence could offer a big boost for Taylor, as second-year receiver Sammy Watkins is off to a slow start in 2015. 

Key Matchup

Bill Wippert/Associated Press/Associated Press

Buffalo CB Ronald Darby (#28)

Miami WR Jarvis Landry vs. Buffalo CB Ronald Darby

Darby’s up-and-down preseason drew widespread scrutiny, as the 2015 second-round pick was immediately thrust into a starting role. Darby was solid in Week 1, intercepting Andrew Luck once, and has nine tackles over two weeks.

Frankly, Buffalo fans should be happy with Darby’s play; after looking utterly lost at times in the preseason, he appears comfortable in the Bills’ defensive scheme and has played aggressively in both games. 

Landry, however, leads the Dolphins with 16 receptions and 163 yards over two games (he also has a 69-yard punt return). He was a second-round pick out of LSU in 2014 and caught his 100th pass during last week’s game. As Fox Sports reported, Landry reached that mark faster than any other Dolphin in history.

He has reliable hands, a sturdy frame, an affinity for contact and lots of energy. Darby’s ability to lock Landry down will dramatically affect Miami’s offensive success. 

X-Factor

David Richard/Associated Press

This week’s X-factor isn’t a player. It’s a small yellow bundle of nylon. As I noted in both Week 1 and Week 2, Buffalo has been absolutely wracked by penalties this year, and it’s neutralizing the team’s potent defense. 

The Bills surrendered 113 penalty yards against the Colts and 140 against New England. They are the NFL’s most penalized team, per TeamRankings.com. And, as I noted, the penalties are coming on both sides of the ball, are directly costing Buffalo points and have not been committed by any one or two particularly egregious offenders. 

The two places to pay particular attention to are the aforementioned secondary and the offensive line. With respect to the former, Miami’s wideout corps are generally young, fast and aggressive, if not the most experienced or reliable route-runners. That’s the sort of player to often draw flags. Darby, especially, must manage to guard Jarvis (along with wideout Rishard Matthews and tight end Jordan Cameron) without interfering. 

With respect to the latter, penalties on Buffalo’s O-line have cost the team several times so far in 2015. The team cannot expect to win if it routinely negates positive offensive plays with fouls. 

Prediction

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo 28, Miami 14

This comes down to three things. 

One, the Bills—rightly—should be angry with themselves. They entered the year with explicit playoff hopes, and they have the talent to accomplish that goal, particularly on defense. Buffalo’s defensive unit, even injury depleted, is simply too gifted to surrender 40 points again. And Tannehill is no Andrew Luck or Tom Brady. The Bills defense should return to havoc-wreaking form this week. 

Second, Buffalo’s coaching staff will likely return to its Week 1 strategy concerning Tyrod Taylor. While his touchdown and yardage marks were better against New England, Taylor also threw three picks last week and was much more effective throwing short, low-risk passes against Indianapolis. Rex Ryan placed much of the blame for last week’s loss on his own shoulders; it’s quite likely he returns to Taylor’s Week 1 approach. 

Finally, there’s the specter of a 1-2 record. If Buffalo falls to 1-2, it’ll be last in the AFC East, even if New England and the Jets both lose. That situation would not only infuriate Buffalo’s rabid, playoff-hungry fanbase but also put Buffalo in a not-insignificant AFC East hole.

Of course, the first three weeks of the season aren’t always accurate predictors of later-season success (See: New England Patriots, 2014). But losing to two division rivals in the season’s first three weeks would be a disheartening blow. This is an important game to win for Buffalo.