Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, Pick

Michigan State is 3-0 this season and ranked as high as it's been since the days of Bubba Smith. But the Spartans are also 0-3 against the spread, after giving up three straight back-door covers. MSU might find itself in a similar position this week, when it hosts in-state rival Central Michigan Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.

Point spread: The Spartans opened as 28.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and a matchup report  can be read here.)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.1-22.2, Spartans

Why the Central Michigan Chippewas can cover the spread

The Chippewas are 1-2 straight up but 3-0 against the spread this season, following last week's 30-27 overtime loss at Syracuse, in which they covered as eight-point road dogs. Central Michigan trailed 24-10 at the half but scored twice in the second half, the second time on a Cooper Rush-to-Ben McCord 27-yard touchdown pass with seven seconds to go, to force overtime.

The Chippewas then led briefly in the first extra period, but they gave up a touchdown to miss out on the upset. For the game, CMU outgained the Orange 520-326 and won time of possession by a 39-21 margin.

Central Michigan opened this season with a 24-13 loss to Oklahoma State but covered as a 21-point home dog. The Chippewas then beat Monmouth 31-10, covering as 20-point favorites.

Central Michigan only returned 10 starters this season from a team that went 7-6 last year, and the team lost its head coach in January. But so far, the Chippewas are exceeding expectations.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State is off to a 3-0 start this season, following last week's 35-21 victory at home over Air Force.

The Spartans led 28-7 at the half and scored the first touchdown of the second half to temporarily cover the spread as 24-point favorites, but they took their foot off the gas, allowing Air Force to score twice and take the cash. MSU actually got outgained and outrushed on the day, but senior quarterback Connor Cook tossed four touchdown passes, and the Spartans won the turnover battle 3-0.

Michigan State opened this season with a 37-24 victory at Western Michigan but gave up the cover as a 16-point favorite, after leading by 24. The Spartans did the same thing the following week against Oregon, winning 31-28 but missing on the cover as five-point home favorites when they allowed the Ducks to score a touchdown with three minutes to go.

With 14 starters back from a team that went 11-2 last year, seven on each side of the ball, this might be the best team Michigan State has fielded in its nine seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio.

Smart pick

One of these days, the Spartans are going to spank somebody and cover a spread. Perhaps this week. The smart money here resides with MSU, minus the points.

Betting trends

Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its six games against Central Michigan.

Central Michigan is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September.

Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four games on the road.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.