The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 75: Barnett vs. Nelson
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Japan for the first time in 2015 on Saturday with an offering far more in line with its weak 2014 than the generally excellent cards it has featured this year. The main event features a relevant heavyweight matchup between Pride FC standout Josh Barnett and Roy Nelson, and in that thin division the winner will be no more than one or two fights away from the title.
The co-main event is likewise solid, with Gegard Mousasi drawing the talented yet maddeningly inconsistent Uriah Hall in a fight that offers the New Yorker his first look at elite opposition.
The card's quality drops off quickly after that. Former title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi gets an intriguing opponent in Chico Camus, but that is the only relevant fight left. The rest of the event spotlights a mixture of former stars such as Norifumi Yamamoto and Japanese journeymen in winnable matchups. Hardcore fans will find spots of interest—such as Katsunori Kikuno's bout against Diego Brandao, but the card lacks much in the way of depth.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Prelims
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Welterweights
Shinsho Anzai (8-2; 0-1 UFC) vs. Roger Zapata (4-1; 0-0 UFC)
Two bottom-tier welterweights collide in the evening's curtain-jerker. Anzai debuted against Alberto Mina more than a year ago and was knocked out in the first round, while Zapata was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 19 and has not fought since his time on the show.
Anzai is an aggressive wrestler-boxer who loves to pressure. He is surprisingly quick and packs some pop in his hands, which he flings with crafty head movement and timing as he moves forward into the pocket to hunt for takedowns.
Zapata is a solid and aggressive southpaw with a nice left hand, decent takedowns and a nice move to the back.
The American will have an edge in size and possibly cardio, but Anzai is craftier, more experienced and hits much harder. The pick is Anzai by decision in a fun, back-and-forth fight.
Lightweights
Naoyuki Kotani (33-12-7; 0-4 UFC) vs. Kajan Johnson (20-12-1; 1-1 UFC)
Veteran journeyman Kotani takes on Canada's Johnson in a potentially fun lightweight matchup. Norman Parke and Yan Cabral finished Kotani in his last two outings, while Johnson beat Zhang Lipeng in May.
Kotani has well-rounded skills, with solid southpaw combination punching, decent takedowns and an excellent top game that features slick submissions, but he lacks athleticism, output and durability.
Johnson likes to strike but has picked up a nice takedown and top game during his time in the sport. He too struggles to take a punch at this point in his long career.
This has all the makings of a slow-paced, grinding fight with both fighters trading takedowns and top control. The Canadian seems less shot to me, so the pick is Johnson by decision.
Lightweights
Nick Hein (12-2, 1 NC; 2-1 UFC) vs. Yusuke Kasuya (9-1-2; 0-0 UFC)
German policeman Hein returns to the Octagon and draws the debuting Kasuya, a solid prospect coming out of Japan. A decorated judo practitioner, Hein lost a decision to James Vick last November but rebounded with a win over Lukasz Sajewski.
Hein boasts the strong clinch takedowns one expects from a judoka and has focused more on his southpaw striking game in the UFC. He packs brutal power in his left hand but could stand to be more active.
Kasuya has solid skills everywhere, with an increasingly slick combination striking game, a scramble-heavy style on the mat and a good nose for the submission, but he doesn't put the tools together into a coherent package and is quite hittable.
The German has never been taken down and has a substantial advantage in power and general athleticism. The pick is Hein by decision via a mixture of power punching and opportunistic takedowns, with a strong possibility of a knockout.
Welterweights
Keita Nakamura (30-6-2, 1 N/C; 0-3 UFC) vs. Jingliang Li (10-3; 2-1 UFC)
While he has flown under the radar, Jingliang Li is easily the best fighter the UFC signed during its exploratory period in China, sandwiching wins over Dhiego Lima and David Michaud around a close loss to Nordine Taleb. This will be Nakamura's second stint in the UFC after more than seven years in smaller promotions.
Li is a durable, high-output fighter with diverse skills. He is a solid striker with a particularly quick trigger on his counterpunching combinations, and he hits slick takedowns in the clinch as a change of pace. Nakamura is a solid southpaw with a crisp jab and left hand, but he makes his hay with relentless takedowns and hunting for submissions on the mat.
This matchup substantially favors Li. He's younger, hits harder, is as strong a wrestler and has a massive edge in offensive output. While Nakamura is durable, Li will light him up with combinations and put him down. The pick is Li by knockout in the second round.
Mizuto Hirota vs. Teruto Ishihara
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Featherweights
Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2; 0-2 UFC) vs. Teruto Ishihara (7-2-1; 0-0 UFC)
This bout marks the finale of the UFC's Road to UFC Japan series, which featured eight fighters in a TUF-like tournament. Hirota, a well-traveled UFC veteran, has won three in a row since a pair of decision losses bounced him from the promotion in 2013. Ishihara is a 24-year-old prospect with real power and potential.
Ishihara is a good athlete with a game reminiscent of a poor man's Kyoji Horiguchi. A southpaw, Ishihara likes to bounce around at range in a side-on stance while consistently feinting and then to leap in with a single punch, kick or knee. His timing on his counters is excellent; he takes clean angles and packs real power in his shots. On the downside, he is hittable when in range and tends to leave his chin up in the air.
Strong takedown defense is the bedrock of Ishihara's game. His tendency to operate at long range makes it difficult for an opponent to get a good shot at his hips in the first place, and he digs for underhooks on the sprawl with great strength. He has nothing to offer on the mat aside from the ability to scramble back to his feet.
Hirota is a veteran, meat-and-potatoes kickboxer who can do a bit of everything. He is most comfortable boxing in the pocket, working behind a long jab and following with a strong right hand. While he is there to be hit, he pulls his head off line as he throws and is hard to hit cleanly. Low kicks give Hirota options from outside his preferred range, but moving forward aggressively and throwing hands is his preferred stratagem.
The rest of Hirota's game is good enough to get by. His takedown defense is solid, and he is strong in the clinch. The occasional takedown and period of top control serves as a change of pace from his usual fare.
Betting Odds
Hirota -240, Ishihara +180
Prediction
The veteran Hirota has a substantial edge in experience and quality of opposition, but the more important factor here is size. Standing only 5'4", Ishihara is a bantamweight at best and more likely a flyweight, while Hirota is a big featherweight. That size and length will be the difference, as Hirota will use his jab to keep Ishihara too far outside to be effective. The pick is Hirota by decision.
Diego Brandao vs. Katsunori Kikuno
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Featherweights
Katsunori Kikuno (22-7-2; 2-2 UFC) vs. Diego Brandao (19-10; 5-3 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 14 winner Brandao returns to action against Japanese veteran Kikuno. Brandao hasn't lived up to his great potential, but he saved himself from a pink slip with a win over Jimy Hettes in his last outing. Kikuno has alternated wins and losses in the UFC, most recently ending up on the wrong end of a Kevin Souza right hand back in March.
Brandao is an excellent athlete with well-rounded skills and big power. When he stays technical, he unleashes crisp combinations and powerful low kicks from both stances. He has a bad habit of getting wild on the feet, however, and is far too hittable for comfort. His habit of brawling leads him to forget his excellent takedowns and lethal top game.
Kikuno is a striker by trade with an unorthodox, karate-based style that focus on single kicks, counterpunches and a hands-low style. He leaps in and out of range as he constantly circles, cracking away with powerful strikes. He is competent elsewhere, with enough takedown defense to remain standing and a few submissions for variety.
Betting Odds
Brandao -230, Kikuno +190
Prediction
This is Brandao's fight to lose whether he forces a brawl on the feet or stays patient and works takedowns and top control. Kikuno would have to outlast Brandao, wear him down with body shots and stay away from the faster and more athletic fighter to have a real shot, but that seems unlikely. The pick is Brandao by submission in the first round.
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Takeya Mizugaki vs. George Roop
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Bantamweights
Takeya Mizugaki (20-9-2; 7-4 UFC) vs. George Roop (15-11-1; 4-5 UFC)
Japan's Mizugaki has been one of the steady mainstays of the UFC's bantamweight division, but consecutive losses to former champion Dominick Cruz and rising star Aljamain Sterling have destroyed the momentum he accrued over a five-fight winning streak from November 2012 to May 2014. Roop badly needs a win here as well after suffering two losses in his last three outings, both by knockout.
Mizugaki is the definition of a meat-and-potatoes fighter. He relies on crisp combination punching at range, with an emphasis on counters, and mixes in the occasional low kick for the sake of variety. Volume is his calling card, and while he isn't a power puncher, he has enough pop to make his opponents think twice. Defense isn't his strongest suit, and his aggressiveness tends to make him available to be hit.
Rock-solid takedown defense that holds strong against all but the most accomplished wrestlers allows Mizugaki to work his boxing game on the feet. He hits the occasional trip or shot takedown of his own as a change of pace, and he has a functional, if not outstanding, top game.
Roop is a rhythm striker who starts slow and takes time to find his groove, but when he does he makes great use of his gangly, 6'1" frame with a sharp jab, long front kick and cracking round kicks. Pace is his strong suit, and he does an excellent job of sticking shorter opponents on the end of his shots. He has virtually no defensive skills aside from his length and command of angles, and he struggles to absorb hard shots.
The rest of Roop's arsenal is entirely ancillary. He is an average defensive wrestler at best and can hit the occasional takedown of his own, while on the mat he is solid defensively and offers next to nothing offensively.
Betting Odds
Mizugaki -235, Roop +195
Prediction
Unless Mizugaki's two recent losses foreshadow a coming decline, this fight substantially favors him. He will pressure aggressively, and while Roop will have success landing shots at range, Mizugaki's durability, pace and combinations should be the difference. The pick is Mizugaki by competitive decision.
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Chico Camus
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Flyweights
Kyoji Horiguchi (15-2; 4-1 UFC) vs. Chico Camus (14-6, 1 NC: 3-3, 1 NC UFC)
Former title challenger Horiguchi returns to action against Wisconsin's Camus in a solid booking of Top 10 flyweights. Champion Demetrious Johnson dominated Horiguchi from the opening bell to the last-second armbar in April, but prior to that the Japanese fighter had won four in a row to kick off his UFC career. Camus looked great in a win over Brad Pickett last November and lost a close fight to Olympian Henry Cejudo in June.
Camus has developed into one of the division's best strikers. He moves constantly at range, circling and cutting smooth angles while leaping in and out with crisp punching combinations. He excels at throwing back-stepping counters as he retreats, which makes it dangerous to pressure him. His combination of circular motion, angles and head movement makes him difficult to hit.
Takedown defense is a real strength of Camus' game, and he excels at floating his hips into incoming shots and hipping out if planted on the mat. He is also difficult to hold in the clinch. While not much of a takedown artist, Camus is a surprisingly good grappler, with great instincts in the scrambles and a competent top game.
Like Camus, Horiguchi is a range striker by trade. He leaps in and out with single shots that are impossible to time and predict, with a variety of jabs, right hands, round kicks at all levels and front kicks. Exceptional athleticism and brutal power reminiscent of his mentor Norifumi Yamamoto make this a viable strategy for Horiguchi, but he doesn't throw much volume and can be clipped as he comes in.
Prior to his fight with Johnson, Horiguchi's defense had been outstanding, and it's hard to hold those shortcomings against him considering the quality of opposition. While he rarely uses them, he can hit the occasional trip or throw, and he packs serious power in his ground strikes.
Betting Odds
Horiguchi -335, Camus +275
Prediction
While Horiguchi should be the favorite, the wide betting odds undersell Camus' chances. The Japanese fighter has a bad habit of slipping into periods of inactivity, while Camus makes the most of his chances by throwing combinations and putting volume on his opponent. This is likely to be a slow-paced bout given both fighters' habit of operating at long range, and it wouldn't be surprising if Camus simply outworked Horiguchi.
Still, the more likely outcome is the more dynamic Horiguchi landing a big shot. The pick is Horiguchi by tight decision.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah Hall
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Co-Main Event: Middleweights
Gegard Mousasi (37-5-2; 4-2 UFC) vs. Uriah Hall (12-5; 4-3 UFC)
The enigmatic Mousasi draws The Ultimate Fighter 17 standout Hall in an intriguing matchup of fighters who have yet to fully reach their considerable potential. Mousasi has run off a pair of wins since falling victim to a Jacare Souza guillotine, while Hall rebounded from a contentious decision loss to Rafael Natal by blowing out debutant Oluwale Bamgbose last month.
Mousasi has complete skills in every phase. He was an accomplished amateur boxer and has K-1 kickboxing experience, and while he doesn't pack enormous power, he is steady, consistent and extremely technical. A piercing and constant jab is the centerpiece of his game, which he follows with a clean right hand and the occasional kick.
The Dutch-Armenian is nearly impossible to hit cleanly. He pulls his head off the center line as he throws strikes and consistently moves it at range. His use of the jab to control the range, technical footwork and use of angles make it difficult to get a good shot at him in the first place.
As good as he is on the feet, Mousasi is just as dangerous elsewhere. While takedown defense was a problem early in his career, he has drastically improved and now only struggles with chained attempts against the fence. If planted on the ground, he owns a lethal and aggressive guard that melds triangles, armbars and sweeps.
Offensively, Mousasi has an effective array of reactive singles and doubles along with trips and throws in the clinch. On the mat, he is silky-smooth and technically sound. He passes smoothly and has great posture, which gives him real power in his ground strikes and pairs nicely with the threat of top-side submissions. Mousasi's move to the back is lightning-fast, and the rear-naked choke is his best finisher.
Hall is an outstanding athlete with seemingly limitless potential, but he has consistently struggled to pull the trigger. Simply put, he thinks too much, particularly when pressured. He often lets the perfect become the enemy of the good; instead of scoring with what his opponent gives him—a jab or low kick or what have you—Hall hunts for a fight-ending shot that might never come.
It's unfortunate, because he has real talent. Hall is exceptionally fast and packs serious power in all his strikes, and when he finds his rhythm he is a joy to watch. His jabs are smooth and piercing, and his counter right is a thing of beauty. He is even more talented as a kicker, with a lethal arsenal of front, round and spinning kicks. He is vulnerable to low kicks, however, and relies heavily on angles and range for defense.
The rest of Hall's game is competent. He defends takedowns well and has a few takedowns of his own, which he executes with great timing and explosive finishes. Nobody will confuse him with Jacare on top, but he has great posture and packs potent force in his ground strikes.
Betting Odds
Mousasi -450, Hall +360
Prediction
This is Mousasi's fight to lose. Hall is too inconsistent and mercurial to beat a steady, smooth and diverse fighter with the Dutch-Armenian's experience against elite competition. Mousasi will use his excellent footwork to score on the feet, cut off Hall's angles and force him toward the cage, where he can work takedowns and top control. The pick is Mousasi by wide decision.
Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson
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Main Event: Heavyweights
Josh Barnett (33-7; 5-2 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (21-11; 7-7 UFC)
The venerable Barnett returns to action for the first time since suffering a devastating knockout loss to Travis Browne in December 2013, and he draws the hard-hitting Nelson in an entertaining and relevant heavyweight bout. Nelson has been on a rough run of late, losing four of his last five, albeit to the heavyweight elite. The winner will be only a fight or two away from a title shot given the division's lack of depth.
While he is mostly known for his diverse and lethal grappling, Barnett is more than competent in every phase of the fight. He is essentially a pressure fighter who does his best work moving forward behind a crisp, rangy jab, mixing in strong kicks with uppercuts and looping right hands as he attempts to back his opponent against the fence.
Once he has his opponent's back to the cage, Barnett really goes to work. He is one of the best clinch fighters in the division, with brutal strength and great leverage once he gets his hands on his opponent. Elbows, knees, uppercuts and hooks arrive in a constant, vicious stream that overwhelms less technically sound adversaries.
Barnett's takedowns are not as effective as they were early in his career, and he depends heavily on the fence to chain attempts together until he can drag his opponent to the ground. Once on the mat, Barnett shines. His catch wrestling base gives him incredible pressure from the top, and he mixes smooth passes with potent ground strikes and top-side submissions. Few opponents can deal with his pace and technical acumen on the ground.
By contrast, Nelson is essentially a one-note puncher. Despite the commentators' constant reminder that Nelson holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Renzo Gracie, it's been years since he made effective use of it, and his bombing hands are the beginning and end of what he offers in the cage.
With that said, Nelson's portly frame, plodding gait and awkward approach shouldn't suggest that he's unskilled. Far from it—he has actively improved his setups and overall approach in the last several years, using a crisp jab and left hook to drive opponents toward his favored overhand. The occasional kick also helps set up the right hand.
On the downside, Nelson offers little as a wrestler and only slightly more in the clinch, which renders his black belt and suffocating top game meaningless. He's one of the most hittable fighters in the history of the sport, and his once-legendary chin has finally cracked. His formerly surprising speed is now largely gone as well, which makes him even more vulnerable to his strikes than ever.
Betting Odds
Barnett -270, Nelson +230
Prediction
Both Barnett and Nelson are on the down slope of their careers, but Nelson is slipping away much faster than the Washington native. Barnett's continued skill growth and intelligent game-planning have mostly disguised his decline, while Nelson is basically the same fighter he's always been.
While Nelson can always land the right hand and put anybody in the division to sleep, that seems less likely than a methodical and vicious performance from Barnett carrying the day. He will work his way forward behind the jab, push Nelson up against the fence and wear him down with knees to the body in the clinch.
Once Nelson has tired, Barnett will go to work with takedowns and his dangerous top game to secure the finish. The pick is Barnett by submission in the third round.
Author's Note: All betting odds via Odds Shark.
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