CBB Recruiting Notebook: An Inside Look at the Recruiting Rankings Process

College basketball fans are enamored by the possibility of landing coveted 5-star recruits, but many fans are likely unaware of how those rankings are decided.

Recruiting rankings are entrenched in college basketball by this point, but it's still a bit of a mystery to the common fan even though rankings can have such a significant impact on the sport.

Top programs recruit top players, and where a player is ranked sometimes affects which schools target which players. The job security of college coaches can also be impacted based on how many highly-rated recruits they are able to bring in.

This puts a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of the people behind the four major national rankings, which come from 247Sports, ESPN, Rivals and Scout.com

"Our rankings are based on how good we think that player is going to be long-term," Evan Daniels, Scout.com's director of basketball recruiting said to Bleacher Report. "My mom can put together a list of the most productive players. With our rankings, it's trying to evaluate guys and factor in upside with current abilities to pick out the best player five years from now."

While the scouts who spoke with Bleacher Report all shared takes similar to Daniels and Scout.com on how their rankings come to a starting point, how the rankings end up a finished product varies greatly between companies. Scout.com and ESPN have teams of scouts that put together collaborative lists to form their rankings, while 247 Sports and Rivals opt for a single decision-maker.

It's led to dissenting opinions and a lot of debate about who the future stars of basketball might be.

Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images

"I don't think anybody has any concrete set of guidelines. We're dealing with teenagers who are constantly evolving. As much as we know, there are still many more unknowns," Eric Bossi, national basketball analyst for Rivals.com said. "Creating rankings is a combination of experience, trends and skill sets that you've noticed have translated. Position for size on the next level, current production and potential down the road. It's a feel for combining those different things."

Rankings are far from an exact science, but the major outlets have done remarkably well in identifying the best talent. According to Gary Parrish of CBS Sports, an astounding 92 percent of top-10 prospects from the class of 2006 to class of 2010 played in the NBA. 

As you get further down the rankings, it becomes more difficult to accurately predict a player's potential, but the rating is still very important. The small separation between a 4-star and 5-star prospect—which could mean the difference in being selected for coveted senior all-star games like the McDonald's All American Game or Jordan Brand Classic—is really at the discretion of who is creating the rankings. One of the biggest questions becomes: How many true 5-star prospects are a part of a specific class?

"I think in the top 100, it's kind of broken up into tiers. Usually we have somewhere in the range of 22 to 28 5-star prospects, and it's kind of a separator," Daniels said.

"When you get close to that 4-star, 5-star line, what separates them, for me, I'm either really sure the 5-star is going to make an impact, or I feel like the long-term potential of the 5-star is maybe a little bit better than the 4-star. It could be any number of variables that separate 4-star from 5-star," Bossi said.

With four sets of rankings in the picture for people to sift through, it also leads to fans hearing from multiple viewpoints. But it can also lead to groupthink among the scouting industry, as many scouts watch the same players putting on the same performances in the same events.

"There's not as many differences between the services anymore because we're seeing a lot of the same kids," Bossi said. "One of the biggest complaints is, 'everybody ranks everybody the same,' which I don't think we are. But if one of us has an opinion on a kid that is different from the industry, then we're viewed as crazy. It's kind of funny how that works." 

Nothing in life is a sure thing, and scouts are also becoming increasingly leery of missing on players that look like potential pros.

"I'm hesitant to call a prospect a "pro" nowadays after being in this business for a few years," Daniels said. "I don't think a lot of people realize how hard it is and how much work it takes to make it to the professional level."

Rankings will always be fun debate fodder for college basketball fans, and there are plenty of times when they are incorrect, but like it or not, there isn't a better tool out there when it comes to identifying future pros and impact players.

Are the UCLA Bruins Relying Too Much on Magic?

Head coach Steve Alford and the UCLA Bruins have it rolling on the recruiting trail as the program landed another 4-star commitment from point guard Jaylen Hands this week. 

Credit: Adidas

The addition of the 6'0" Hands gives the Bruins three commitments in the class of 2017, meaning that UCLA is already way ahead of the pack when it comes to future talent entering the program. But some UCLA fans are a little concerned that Alford is relying too much on recruiting from the Compton Magic AAU program. 

The famed grassroots program from the Adidas circuit has produced a litany of talented West Coast players over the years, but Hands represents the fourth UCLA commitment to come from the Magic in the 2016 and 2017 classes. With UCLA also still heavily involved with 5-star class of 2016 forward T.J. Leaf—of, you guessed it, the Compton Magic—some UCLA fans are leery of the Bruins relying so heavily on one grassroots program to get players.

"I think there's some skepticism around how much Alford leans on the Magic," UCLA Rivals reporter Edward Lewis said to Bleacher Report. "What happens when the talent pool dries up in that program?"

UCLA fans can be a fickle bunch, and they expect national championships. With fans looking for Alford to compete with Duke, Kentucky and other blue bloods for elite, 5-star talent, will it come back to hurt Alford if he recruits one program so heavily?

Alford has also recruited outside of the Magic—most notably the trio of Ball brothers, headlined by 5-star 2016 point guard Lonzo—but lately he's hit the Magic hard.

"The thing people want to see more of from Alford is getting guys he shouldn't get," Lewis said. "It's one thing to land the Balls and Compton Magic kids, but it's another to get elite kids that he shouldn't be getting."

How Texas AD Drama Affects Longhorns' Recruiting

It's been an interesting start to the Shaka Smart era at Texas the last five months as the man who hired Smart away from the VCU Rams, Steve Patterson, resigned from his post as athletic director this week. With positive comments from Texas President Greg Fenves and interim AD Mike Perrin, Smart's job appears to be plenty safe, but Patterson's replacement will be making some key decisions that could affect Smart's recruiting strategies.

"The things the future AD will have to deal with is the apparel contract—Nike's exclusive window for negotiating with Texas is up on October 1st—and the basketball arena," Texas Rivals reporter Dustin McComas said.  

While the basketball arena could be tied up for years as Texas tries to work with the city of Austin, the new apparel contract—which could be record breaking if a bidding war between Nike and Under Armour begins—is an immediate issue that will have to be resolved. This apparel decision could come to define how Texas athletics operates at some levels for the next few years, and it could have an impact on recruiting if Texas moves away from the Swoosh.

All of the bidding and arena issues are out of Smart's hands, so his main focus will be on the present and bringing in talented players to Austin.

Big Ten Makes Big Move Up Team Recruiting Rankings

Credit: 247Sports

This week ended with some huge momentum for the Big Ten as both the Michigan State Spartans and Penn State Nittany Lions moved into the top 10 in the 247Sports class of 2016 team recruiting rankings with commitments. 

With the Spartans grabbing in-state 4-star point guard Cassius Winston, Michigan State now sits atop the 247Sports latest team rankings, as Winston fits nicely with 5-star shooting guard Josh Langford and 4-star big man Nick Ward.

Penn State made its surprising move into the top 10 by securing 4-star forward Lamar Stevens. The four-man class for the Nittany Lions is headlined by 4-star guard Tony Carr, but adding Stevens in the front court with 3-star forward Joe Hampton and 3-star wing Nazeer Bostick is a big coup for head coach Patrick Chambers.

These team rankings will obviously change as more commitments start to pop, but the big takeaway here is that Michigan State is fighting for the No. 1 spot in the class while Penn State is putting together a potentially program-changing group that should still find itself in the top 20 when things finish up.

Recruiting ratings via 247Sports.

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes and information were obtained firsthand.