Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 1: Opening-Season Locks and Flops of Fantasy Football

It's Week 1 of the NFL season, and that gives us special license in fantasy football. 

Normally, we would never waste your time telling you how good Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Dez Bryant are going to to be, because you don't need that kind of good-for-nothing advice. You know that Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Fame quarterback, Peterson is a potential 1,500-yard rusher and Bryant can score nearly every week.

But this is the first week of the season, so you need baselines. You need to understand who is a worthwhile selection and who needs to go to the bench and stay there for a good long while.

Player	Position	Team	Ranking
Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals	14
DeMarco Murray	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	5
Jonathan Stewart	RB	Carolina Panthers	14
Julio Jones	WR	Atlanta Falcons	2
Amari Cooper	WR	Oakland Raiders	17
Tyler Eifert	TE	Cincinnati Bengals	13

Player	Position	Team	Ranking
Andrew Luck	QB	Indianapolis Colts	7
Jeremy Hill	RB	Cincinnati Bengals	3
Mark Ingram	RB	New Orleans	13
Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Denver Broncos	10
T.Y. Hilton	WR	Indianapolis Colts	14
Delanie Walker	TE	Tennessee Titans	7

Quarterbacks

Locks: Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Sam Bradford

Flops: Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Brian Hoyer

In this Week 1 edition of locks and flops, we will include some of the well-known superstars, just because there have been changes since the end of last season. To some of you, there may be hesitation when it comes to Aaron Rodgers because his No. 1 receiver, Jordy Nelson, is out for the year after tearing his ACL.

We don't share that belief. We have studied quarterbacks in the NFL for more than 40 years on an up-close-and-personal basis and even further from a historical perspective. We can project with great confidence that when Rodgers reaches the age of 38 or 39, he will be compared with the all-time greats who have played the position.

He is the best quarterback in the game right now, better than Andrew Luck, better than Tom Brady and far better than Peyton Manning at this point in his career. But when all is said and done for Rodgers, he will rank with Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and, yes, Manning and Brady, among the game's all-time best quarterbacks.

Right now, most of you don't care about all-time ratings. It's all about this week, and nobody has a better opportunity than Rodgers against the Chicago Bears in Week 1.

The Bears have been among the worst defensive teams in the league for the last two years (30th in yards allowed in 2014), and while new head coach John Fox brought former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with him, the Bears still lack talent on the defensive side of the ball.

It doesn't matter what the scheme is if there is no pressure on the quarterback and the cornerbacks can't cover the receivers. The only semblance of pressure may come from former Minnesota Viking Jared Allen (5.5 sacks in 2014), who may have the savvy but doesn't have the quickness anymore. 

Meanwhile, Rodgers will be able to exploit the Bears secondary with Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Jeff Janis. Rodgers is a lock to open the season with a bang.

Our other two quarterbacks to get the full lock treatment are Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys against the New York Giants and Sam Bradford of the Philadelphia Eagles against the woeful Atlanta Falcons.

The Giants could have a high-scoring and explosive offense themselves, but their defense is no better than it was last year when it ranked 29th in yards allowed. That plays into Romo's hands, because he should be getting the ball back frequently in this game.

Bradford is in line to have an excellent first game with Chip Kelly's team. The Eagles head coach not only wants to win, he wants to be known for his sharp decision-making ability. He had a good situation with Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy, but he thinks its much better with Bradford and DeMarco Murray.

We haven't been in love with everything Kelly has done, but he seems to be on top of it here.

We are sitting Jay Culter of the Chicago Bears, Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions and Brian Hoyer of the Houston Texans this week. Cutler's tendency to throw interceptions and make crucial mistakes always seems to come to the fore against Green Bay, as he is 1-10 in a Chicago uniform with 21 interceptions against their NFC North rival. The Packers are in his head and there is no sign of that changing.

Running Backs

Locks: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Lamar Miller

Flops: Carlos Hyde, Tre Mason, Alfred Morris

Among the running backs, we are going with Peterson, Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs and Lamar Miller of the Miami Dolphins.

Peterson played only one game last season before he was placed on the commissioner's exempt list after child abuse charges were filed against him and later dropped in Texas, and that means he is fresh. He is the strongest and most powerful running back in the league, and defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer wants to establish the run.

Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is not a star, but he is good enough that opponents will have to respect the Vikings passing game. Peterson should have a chance to toast the reeling 49ers, who went through one of the most difficult offseasons in recent memory. It all started with the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh, and it got much worse with the unexpected retirements of linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland.

Charles is good enough to battle Peterson for the rushing title all season, and he is also a superb receiver. The Texans may be able to slow him down for a few series, but they won't be able to keep him in check for 60 minutes.

Miller has a chance to help the Dolphins reach the playoffs this year, and he gets to start off against the Washington defense. While Ryan Kerrigan is a stud at linebacker, the Redskins are relatively slow on defense. Miller will be able to exploit that weakness.

We have decided to sit Carlos Hyde of the 49ers, Tre Mason of the St. Louis Rams and Alfred Morris of the Redskins. We're not buying the hype that Hyde is going to step right in for Frank Gore and give the Niners a credible running game. A 333-yard rookie season does not have us convinced that he is anything more than just another guy at this point.

Mason and Morris are productive backs, but both have drawn very tough Week 1 matchups against the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins, respectively. They are going to have a hard time getting both carries and yards, and it's time to keep them on your bench.

Wide Receivers

Locks: Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr., Jordan Matthews

Flops: Brandin Cooks, Andre Johnson, Alshon Jeffery

If we're putting Romo in the lineup this Sunday, you can rest assured that Dez Bryant will also be in the lineup.

After catching 88 passes for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs last year and getting a five-year, $70 million contract extension in the offseason, Bryant is going to get his opportunities all season, especially in Week 1 against the vulnerable Giants defense. He caught 16 passes in the team's two games against New York last year, and eight receptions sounds about right for Week 1

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Odell Beckham Jr. of the Giants is going to pick up in Week 1 where he left off last year. Beckham has joined the league's elite receivers after catching 91 passes for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs last year, with four of his touchdowns coming against the Cowboys. 

Our third receiver is Jordan Matthews of the Eagles. As a No. 2 receiver last year, he caught 67 passes for 872 yards and eight TDs and that got the attention of Kelly and the coaching staff. He's the No. 1 receiver in the Philadelphia scheme this year since Jeremy Maclin has moved on to Kansas City, and Matthews should get started with a big game against the Falcons.

We are sitting Brandin Cooks of the New Orleans Saints, Andre Johnson of the Indianapolis Colts and Alshon Jeffery of the Bears. Cooks and Johnson have two challenging assignments on the road against the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills, respectively. We expect both to have good years, but neither one will have much to show for themselves in Week 1.

Jeffery has a more favorable opponent in the Packers, and if he were 100 percent healthy, the 6'3" wideout has the talent to exploit the Green Bay secondary. However, Jeffery missed practice Aug. 12 with a calf strain and didn't return until Sept. 9.

If he plays, he is not going to be at his best—and he will not be in our lineup.