Predicting Each Major NCAA Basketball Conference's Leading Scorer in 2015-16
We're just going to go ahead and admit it right up front: Scoring isn't everything.
Take a look at last year's list of scoring leaders, and there are some names that just won't ring a bell to the average college basketball fan.
But in a sport that has been most criticized for its lack of offensive output/excitement, it bears recognizing that there are some fine basket-fillers out there in the major conferences.
And scoring, when done effectively, can mean a lucrative future. The nation's top scorer, Tyler Harvey, went from Eastern Washington to second-round NBA draft pick. The 11th player on the list, Cameron Payne, leaped from relatively unknown at Murray State to a No. 14 selection by Oklahoma City. Throw in Tyler Haws, formerly of BYU and now in a nice gig in Spain, and there's still plenty of motivation for shooters.
We'll examine the top-scoring candidates from each of the major conferences. There are some familiar names, even some up-and-comers.
And there are a variety of ways to get the job done. Sometimes it's a veteran continuing to step up. There are times when the parts that are being placed around the scorer, or have left, have a great impact.
We'll shoot for some answers and hope we swish a few.
AAC: Nic Moore, SMU
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There's plenty of opportunity for Nic Moore, a 5'9'' senior, to take his game to new scoring heights.
He was tied for fourth last year in AAC scoring with Tulsa’s James Woodard (14.5), and the top three scorers graduated.
What separates Moore from Woodard, and the field, was that Moore also was second in the league in assists, is an 89 percent foul shooter (compared to Woodard’s 70) and shot 41 percent from three-point range to lead the AAC.
His game should be further developed after a summer in South Korea with Kansas. He was an added member to the KUSA team that won gold at the University Games. The chance came because of a couple of injuries and ineligible (foreign-born) regular Jayhawks.
Moore started all eight games of the tournament, averaging 6.8 points. But he should gain a big boost in confidence back at SMU, because he'll play for Larry Brown—a mentor of Kansas coach Bill Self. Now that Moore saw the Jayhawks do a lot of similar things as the Mustangs, it wasn't just a field trip. There was good real-world experience.
“He’s just another image of Coach Brown," Moore said of Self to the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd earlier this summer. “I like the way he coaches, fast tempo. What he says is like second nature to me, because I hear it every day from Coach Brown and [assistant coach Tim Jankovich]. When I see Coach Self, I see them.”
The perpetually demanding Brown can ask even more of Moore now. Because Moore knows there are others like him doing similar, hard work. That's a good thing for the Mustangs and Moore's scoring numbers.
Also in consideration: Sterling Gibbs, UConn (transfer from Seton Hall but eligible immediately); Damyean Dotson, Houston (transfer from Oregon)
ACC: Marcus Paige, North Carolina
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You know the saying in football that if you have two quarterbacks—in other words, a key position up for grabs—that you really have none?
That is not the issue with scorers in the ACC. Boy, oh boy, are there some fun options despite a great deal of turnover from last year.
We'll lean toward North Carolina's Marcus Paige, who has a solid core around him (that should lead to stability in his game) and because of his general accuracy. The 6'1'' junior kept really sharp in spite of dealing with foot problems.
Just imagine him healthy. He could improve on numbers that had him, according to KenPom via Sports Illustrated, ranked third in the ACC during conference play in offensive efficiency rating (122.9), fourth in true shooting percentage (60.0 percent) and fourth in steal percentage (3.3 percent)—which could lead to some easy baskets along the way. He can do it from all over, shooting 39 percent from three-point range on a bad hoof.
There were some great options out there for a new scoring king, after Boston College's Olivier Hanlan (19.5) left a year early and now plays in Lithuania (he was a second-round NBA pick by Utah).
The top five are all gone, including Syracuse's Rakeem Christmas, Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Louisville's Terry Rozier and Notre Dame's Jerian Grant.
North Carolina State's Trevor Lacey (15.8) was the sixth-best scorer in the ACC last year. Xavier Rathan-Mayes of Florida State (14.9) also is in consideration.
Lacey was a slightly better three-point shooter than Paige. Rathan-Mayes, at least as a freshman, was streaky at best. (Though when he goes off, he goes off.) Though having freshman Dwayne Bacon should ease some of that burden.
A critical guy to watch: Louisville's Damion Lee. The Drexel graduate transfer will be able to offer scoring to a Cardinals lineup that sorely needs it and should start next to sophomore point guard Quentin Snider. Lee was fifth nationally in points per game, but the nightly ACC will be a whole different level.
We'll lean on Paige being much healthier, and he already has a lot of respect in-house. He was the recipient of UNC’s Dean Smith Most Valuable Player award for the second consecutive season.
That made him just the sixth Tar Heel to ever win it multiple times. Pretty stellar company: Lennie Rosenbluth, Billy Cunningham, Antawn Jamison, Tyler Hansbrough and some guy named Michael Jordan.
Also in consideration: Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia; Zach Auguste, Notre Dame
Atlantic 10: DeAndre’ Bembry, Saint Joseph’s
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To the minutes leaders go the spoils. The points, in other words.
DeAndre' Bembry, a 6'6'' junior from Saint Joseph's, will surely be in the mix if he's still averaging nearly 39 minutes a game like last year—leading the nation.
His work is being recognized. This summer, he was one of 20 collegiate players invited to the Nike Basketball Academy, getting taught in southern California by such names as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.
Last year, Bembry was the A-10's top scorer (17.7) and even better in league games (19.0), becoming the first Hawk to win a scoring title (surely Joe Lunardi loved it).
Bembry could stand to play a little more efficiently this year. He shot 43 percent from the field and 32 percent from three-point range. It remains to be seen if better shooting would require fewer minutes (more rest) or simply an improved skill set created in the offseason. He averaged six more minutes last year, and both key shooting numbers were down noticeably compared to 2013-14.
He had three straight double-doubles in conference play and even ranked eighth in assists, so you can't just double-team him because he'll make you pay.
He'd be a shoo-in if he figures out the foul line: 63.8 percent.
Also in consideration: Jordan Price, La Salle; Kendall Pollard, Dayton; E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island
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Big 12: Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
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Like the ACC, the Big 12 could go a number of directions with a number of scintillating talents.
But we'll stick with the incumbent.
Oklahoma's Buddy Hield led the league last year (17.4). His game's protected a little because Isaiah Cousins (11.7 PPG last year, 12th in the league) is still around. But there are shots to be had after the graduation of senior transfer TaShawn Thomas (11.6).
Now, we know that having a scoring champion doesn't equate to a league champion. Hield's situation will be a fascinating case study. He could've left early for the NBA. Will that weigh on him, or will he thrive? He was a pedestrian 11th by KenPom numbers in effective field-goal percentage during conference play.
Other Big 12 teams will come at you with presumably more balance. Iowa State has Georges Niang and Monte Morris, who were both in the top 11 in league scoring. Kansas is that way, too (Wayne Selden had a very productive summer honing his game; Perry Ellis was seventh last year, and Frank Mason III was ninth).
Baylor's Rico Gathers or Taurean Prince could be right in the mix, even as the Bears need a new point guard. Gathers is fun to watch because of his ability to create extra chances off rebounds.
We're taking a stab that Hield will live up to the expectations. Personalities like him don't come around very often, as the Tulsa World's Guerin Emig pointed out a while back.
You just get the feeling Hield will keep smiling, talking and firing away but not to the detriment of the Sooners.
Also in consideration: Phil Forte, Oklahoma State
Big East: Kris Dunn, Providence
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He gets guys involved. He creates extra possessions. He scores.
it's hard not to root for Providence's Kris Dunn, especially as he chose to return when he could've potentially been a high NBA draft pick this summer.
Dunn's decision to return to school prompted some raised eyebrows, considering he's had a history of shoulder problems. Maybe he should've taken the money and run.
His game is loved by KenPom, though, while his field-goal percentage (48 percent) was the second-highest among last year's top 10 Big East scorers. And Sir'Dominic Pointer (formerly of St. John's) is now in the NBA.
This pick is a bit of a gamble. Providence was sliced hard by losses. LaDontae Henton and Carson Desrosiers graduated. Tyler Harris transferred. Dunn will be surrounded by sophomores, including 6'7" wing Jalen Lindsey, 6'8" Ben Bentil and 7'2" Paschal Chukwu.
A safer choice would be Butler's Kellen Dunham, who was a better scorer than Dunn last year. But losing its frontcourt may mean less extra chances.
That's why we'll figure Dunn can, um, shoulder the extra load.
Also in consideration: D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown; Jalen Brunson, Villanova; Roosevelt Jones, Butler
Big Ten: Melo Trimble, Maryland
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Oh, man, we're going to hear it from Indiana for sure.
Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. are in the picture, certainly.
And the Big Ten lost the top five scorers from last year—Penn State’s D.J. Newbill, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, Frank Kaminsky of Wisconsin, Nebraska's Terran Petteway and Aaron White from Iowa.
Guess who finished in the fifth and sixth spots.
Ferrell and our selection, Melo Trimble of Maryland.
Ferrell could arguably be considered a better all-around offensive player. He's a slightly better three-point shooter and even a better assist man than the Maryland sophomore.
But the edge goes to Trimble because of the roster-balance shifts. Ferrell will have more help with Blackmon, and newcomer Thomas Bryant fills a massive hole inside. Melo and Co. lost Dez Wells, so there's some burden to be passed around.
Trimble is barely a better foul shooter (86.3 percent) than Ferrell, and they ranked 1-2 in the Big Ten (83.0 for Ferrell).
The real difference is free points.
Trimble ranked seventh nationally in free throws attempted. He shot 86.3 percent, too, which was slightly higher than Ferrell and with nearly twice as many attempts.
It's hard to beat it when you can't guard it. Advantage: Melo.
Also in consideration: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
Mountain West: Jalen Moore, Utah State
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Utah State's Jalen Moore made an ESPN list last season of top hairstyles.
We're going to nominate him for an even bigger honor: top scorer in the Mountain West.
Going on last year's stats, it's a two-man race.
Marvelle Harris of Fresno State was a slightly better scorer.
Having David Collette as a wing man could help or hurt Moore. He was a slightly more efficient shooter than the 6'4" Harris, and both are solid foul shooters for their size (about 74 percent). Collette, however, was a more efficient shooter than both.
Moore, who will be a 6'8'' junior, seemed to come into his own in the final year of longtime coach Stew Morrill's tenure. The adjustment to a new coach shouldn't be big.
Tim Duryea was on the Aggies staff the past 14 seasons. So the message may be simple: Get the ball to Jalen.
Also in consideration: Josh Adams, Wyoming; James Webb III, Boise State; Chris Smith, Utah State; Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV
Pac-12: Allonzo Trier, Arizona
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In what should be a wide-open league, it's fair to expect wide-open scoring debates.
But when push comes to shove, when potential comes to points, we'll take Arizona. And in this case, Allonzo Trier, a freshman, should fill it up from the get-go.
The 6'5'' guard is a coup in Tucson, especially after all of the roster losses last year, such as point guard T.J. McConnell or one-and-done Stanley Johnson—who was 14th in the Pac-12 (13.8 points) before becoming the No. 8 pick in the NBA draft.
The scoring title is up for grabs with so many departures. Joseph Young of Oregon and Stanford's Chasson Randle poured in right around 20 points a night.
Cal's Tyrone Wallace was fourth (17.1) and the top returner. But he has some stud freshmen, Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, around him who could bolster numbers. The 6'5'' Golden Bears senior was 88th nationally in shots taken.
His effective field-goal percentage (about 45 percent) was last among the top six Cal contributors last season. So figure some of those shots are going elsewhere, barring drastic improvement.
Jakob Poeltl will be a focal point for Utah and opposing defenses.
Trier may have just enough around him—and certainly enough talent and skill—to win a scoring title.
Also in consideration: Bryce Alford, UCLA; Jordan Mathews, Cal; Josh Hawkinson, Washington State
SEC: Danuel House, Texas A&M
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It's not the perfect start to the season. That won't sway this prediction, though.
The SEC's best scorer will not be from Kentucky or Ole Miss' Stefan Moody (16.3 PPG last year, the top returner) or even LSU freshman superstar Ben Simmons.
Danuel House, a 6'7'' senior forward, averaged 14.8 points last season and will be a top league player on a team that went 21-12 and was knocking on the door of an NCAA tournament bid. House missed the stretch run of last season with a foot injury and had a knee problem in August that kept him out of action during the team's tour of Italy.
Maybe it's a blessing in disguise. Coach Billy Kennedy could check out less experienced players or South Florida transfer Anthony Collins, who may be the Aggies' point guard.
We're giving House the nod for his 52 percent effective field-goal percentage.
It should rise with the talent around him.
Also in consideration: Damian Jones, Vanderbilt; Jamal Murray, Kentucky
Advanced stats and rankings courtesy of KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.
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