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Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, College Football Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 8, 2015

KALAMAZOO, MI - SEPTEMBER 4: Connor Cook #18 of the Michigan State Spartans is pressured by Nathan Braster #53 of the Western Michigan Broncos in the first half at Waldo Stadium on September 4, 2015 in Kalamazoo, Michigan. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Michigan State is 8-4 against the spread in its last 12 home games, while Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road contests. Something has to give when the Spartans and Ducks meet for a rematch of an Oregon victory of last September this Saturday night, this time in East Lansing.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.1-24.9 Ducks

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

Oregon opened this season with a 61-42 victory over Eastern Washington, toying with the Eagles, scoring twice in the first seven minutes of the game and later leading by 26 before taking its foot off the gas.

The Ducks racked up over 700 yards of offense, as new quarterback Vernon Adams, the transfer from EWU who's been tabbed to replace Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, threw for 246 yards and ran for 94 more. OU has a dozen starters back from the team that beat Michigan State last year on its way to the national championship game, plus senior Adams.

Also, the last time the Ducks flew east of the Mississippi they trounced Virginia in Charlottesville two seasons ago, 59-10, covering as 23-point favorites.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

The Spartans opened this season with a 37-24 victory at Western Michigan, grabbing an early 20-point lead, leading by 24 after three quarters before calling off the dogs, eschewing the cover as 17-point favorites.

Michigan State outrushed the Broncos 196-18 and would have covered if it hadn't given up a 100-yard kickoff return for a score or been stopped on the Western Michigan 4-yard line halfway though the fourth quarter.

The Spartans returned 14 starters from the team that upset Baylor in the Cotton Bowl last season and will hit the field Saturday night with revenge on their minds after letting a two-score lead over Oregon in Eugene last season slip away.

Smart pick

Playing for revenge doesn't always work out, but in this case the conditions seem agreeable. The Michigan State defense might be a monster this season, and the Spartans get the Ducks on what could be a thick and/or slick grass field at Spartan Stadium. The smart choice here is with the Spartans.

Betting trends

Oregon is 3-0 ATS in its last three games against Michigan State.

Oregon is 12-1 straight up in its last 13 games on the road in September.

The total has gone over in Michigan State’s last four games against the Pac-12.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

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