Fantasy Football Week 1: Preview and Predictions

As fun as preseason chatter and speculation can be, it pales in comparison to the excitement of September. With the 2015 NFL season less than a week away, it’s time to get to actual previews and predictions.

Fantasy football is won on a week-by-week basis. It doesn’t take a genius to know that Andrew Luck will finish the season with a plethora of fantasy points, but what about the nitty-gritty details of your weekly lineup?

That’s where this article will come in handy. We’ll go over some of the top options at every position and name the players that are in line to either break out or bust. We'll also offer up a few bold predictions.

How many yards is Tom Brady going to throw for this week? Which fantasy stalwarts could bust in Week 1? (Hint: they play for the Washington Redskins and Indianapolis Colts.)

Let’s get to it.

QBs: The Rise of Ryan Tannehill

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Andrew Luck may be the No. 1 overall fantasy quarterback for the 2015 season as a whole, but when it comes to the first week of the season, he takes a backseat to a few of the most elite quarterbacks of the past decade: Aaron Rodgers (at CHI), Tom Brady (vs. PIT) and Peyton Manning (vs. BAL)

Even without favorite target Jordy Nelson, Rodgers has to be considered the top fantasy quarterback for Week 1. In two games against the Chicago Bears last season, Rodgers threw for 617 yards to go along with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. A 300-yard, three-touchdown game is almost a guarantee.

Behind Rodgers is Brady. In truth, I almost slipped Brady into the No. 1 slot given his situation and propensity for lighting it up when angry. But even if we didn’t have a riled-up Brady to look forward to, he would still rank highly going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, over Brady's past four games versus the Steelers, he has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for an average of 320 yards per game. He has also thrown 13 touchdowns (over three per game) and zero interceptions during those four games.

Luck and Russell Wilson are a little further down the list than some might have expected due to their difficult matchups, and Ben Roethlisberger ranks lower than he otherwise would have because of the suspensions that two of his top weapons—Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell—will be serving during Week 1.

Week 1’s Top 10 QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB at CHI)
2. Tom Brady (NE vs. PIT)
3. Peyton Manning (DEN vs. BAL)
4. Andrew Luck (IND at BUF)
5. Russell Wilson (SEA at STL)
6. Matt Ryan (ATL vs. PHI)
7. Ryan Tannehill (MIA at WAS)
8. Tony Romo (DAL vs. NYG)
9. Drew Brees (NO at ARI)
10. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT at NE)

Breakout QB of the Week: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Tannehill gets a favorable Week 1 matchup when the Dolphins square off against the Washington Redskins.

According to ESPN.com’s fantasy football database, the Redskins gave up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season—by far the worst in the league. Quarterbacks threw 35 touchdowns and just seven interceptions versus the Redskins last season.

And Tannehill has a ton of new weapons to play with.

Returning from last year are wideout Jarvis Landry and running back Lamar Miller—and those two should once again the be centerpieces—but Tannehill also has rookie wideout DeVante Parker and a slew of new teammates, including wide receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings and tight end Jordan Cameron.

QB Bust of the Week: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

On paper, Newton’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars looks like something fantasy owners should be jumping all over.

But it’s not as favorable as it appears. In reality, the Jaguars weren’t half-bad against the pass last season—literally. Jacksonville gave up the 15th-most points to fantasy quarterbacks, which put them in the top half of the league.

Of course, Jacksonville giving up the 15th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks does not make them a lights-out defense, but it does illustrate that, in this case, perception does not match reality.

Another reason to be wary of Newton heading into Week 1 is the sheer amount of question marks revolving around Carolina. The loss of wideout Kelvin Benjamin really threw a wrench into this offense, leaving Newton with a receiving corps of Philly Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, Ted Ginn and rookie Devin Funchess.

Newton does still have reliable tight end Greg Olsen at his disposal, but if the weapons surrounding Newton don’t make you at least a little nervous, you’re lying. If you can avoid it, give this situation a few weeks to play itself out before jumping in.

RBs: Hyde's Time to Shine

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Some of the game’s best running backs get juicy matchups right off the bat.

Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill squares off against the Oakland Raiders, a team that gave up 22 fantasy points per game (standard leagues) to running backs last season—worst in the league, per ESPN.com.

Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy put up 177 total yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last season. And with Jordy Nelson sidelined, the Packers could lean on Lacy more often this time around.

Additionally, Minnesota Vikings rusher Adrian Peterson returns to the field against the San Francisco 49ers and their depleted defense, which saw Patrick Willis, Chris Borland and Justin Smith retire this offseason.

We could see some huge numbers right away from the running back position.

Week 1’s Top 10 RBs

1. Jeremy Hill (CIN at OAK)
2. Eddie Lacy (GB at CHI)
3. Adrian Peterson (MIN at SF)
4. C.J. Anderson (DEN vs. BAL)
5. Marshawn Lynch (SEA at STL)
6. Jamaal Charles (KC at HOU)
7. Matt Forte (CHI vs. GB)
8. Justin Forsett (BAL at DEN)
9. Lamar Miller (MIA at WAS)
10. DeMarco Murray (PHI at ATL)

Breakout RB of the Week: Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers

Carlos Hyde will get his first serious crack at shouldering the load for the San Francisco 49ers when the team faces the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1. A 20-plus-carry game is not out of the question, as the 49ers will attempt to control the clock.

According to ESPN.com, the Vikings gave up 18.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season, 26th in the league.

Playing on Monday Night Football, Hyde has a great chance to introduce himself to the world of fantasy football in convincing fashion. 

RB Bust of the Week: Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins 

It’s not really Morris’ fault that he finds himself projected to be Week 1's Bust of the Week at the running back position. It’s more about the position his team will likely be in by halftime.

I fully expect the Dolphins to have a sizable lead in this game midway through the third quarter, which will put Washington on their heels as they attempt to play catch-up. This negative game flow means Morris could find himself blocking—or on the sideline—more often than not, as he’s never been much of a pass-catcher.

Add in the fact that Miami’s defense now features Ndamukong Suh, and there’s even more reason to dislike Morris this week.

WRs: Prime-Time Fireworks

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Antonio Brown easily tops the wide receiver rankings for Week 1. With his teammates Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell not playing against the New England Patriots on Thursday night, Brown may be asked to shoulder a bit more of the offensive load than usual in Week 1—which is saying something. Brown tied with Denver's Demaryius Thomas last season for most targets among wideouts (178), according to Pro Football Focus.

Atlanta’s Julio Jones gets a solid matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. The Eagles gave up 26.1 fantasy points per game against wide receivers last season—worst in the league, according to ESPN.com.

The New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys game should provide plenty of fireworks, as two of the top five players listed below will be featured: Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr.

The first four players on this list—and the breakout candidate of the week—all play in prime time on national television. As Terrell Owens would say, "Get your popcorn ready."

Week 1’s Top 10 WRs

1. Antonio Brown (PIT at NE)
2. Julio Jones (ATL vs. PHI)
3. Dez Bryant (DAL vs. NYG)
4. Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG at DAL)
5. Calvin Johnson (DET at SD)
6. Demaryius Thomas (DEN vs. BAL)
7. Randall Cobb (GB at CHI)
8. A.J. Green (CIN at OAK)
9. Mike Evans (TB vs. TEN)
10. Alshon Jeffery (CHI vs. GB)

Breakout WR of the Week: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Edelman is not really a “hidden gem,” but he does fly somewhat under the radar from a fantasy perspective.

With New England running back LeGarrette Blount suspended for the first week of the season and wideout Brandon LaFell opening the season on the PUP list (meaning he won’t be in the lineup on Thursday night), Edelman could be in for an increased workload.

As noted on the QB slide, New England quarterback Tom Brady has eviscerated Pittsburgh’s defense in each of their past four meetings. Additionally, the Steelers gave up the 22nd-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season.

All of these factors—Brady’s historical success against the Steelers, Pittsburgh’s subpar effort against wideouts last season and the increased importance Edelman will have to New England’s offense in Week 1—make Edelman a prime candidate to break out. 

WR Bust of the Week: Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts

I’m actually expecting big things from Andre Johnson this season, but his Week 1 matchup is less than desirable. Johnson and the Colts will face off against Rex Ryan’s Buffalo Bills.

In 2014, the Bills gave up only 206 passing yards per game—third-best in the league, according to NFL.com. With Ryan now pulling the strings, it’s not hard to imagine Buffalo’s defense being even better in 2015.

Those hoping Johnson will put up solid WR2 numbers for their fantasy squads may need to wait a week (or two, because the Colts play the New York Jets in Week 2) before that vision is realized.

TEs: Jordan Cameron to Make a Splash for the Dolphins

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The names at the top of the list are predictable—Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce—but there are some other tight ends worth watching in Week 1.

Denver’s Owen Daniels slips into the top 10 this week. We’ve yet to truly see what he can do in Denver’s offense, but we’ve seen enough of Peyton Manning’s tight ends succeed to feel comfortable including Daniels as a fantasy starter right off the bat.

Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller also makes the list, as he could be in line for additional targets with Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant sidelined with suspensions.

Week 1’s Top 10 TEs

1. Rob Gronkowski (NE vs. PIT)
2. Greg Olsen (CAR at JAX)
3. Jimmy Graham (SEA at STL)
4. Travis Kelce (KC at HOU)
5. Martellus Bennett (CHI vs. GB)
6. Jason Witten (DAL vs. NYG)
7. Delanie Walker (TEN at TB)
8. Health Miller (PIT at NE)
9. Jordan Cameron (MIA at WAS)
10. Owen Daniels (DEN vs. BAL)

Breakout TE of the Week: Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins 

Don’t be surprised if Cameron puts up huge numbers in his first game with the Miami Dolphins. Washington gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, per ESPN.com.

Recent injuries have fantasy footballers approaching Cameron with cautious optimism this season, but don’t forget that Cameron was a top-five fantasy tight end just two seasons ago.

TE Bust of the Week: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles 

Things are looking up for Ertz on the season as a whole, but look for him to get off to a slow start against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1.

It’s not that the Falcons were a dominating force against tight ends last season that could hold Ertz back (although Atlanta was top-10 material in this category). It has more to do with the fact that the Eagles could find running the ball and passing to their wideouts to be more fruitful endeavors against the Falcons.

According to ESPN.com’s data, the Falcons gave up 3,135 yards to receivers last season—second-most in the league. They also gave up 19 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the most in the league.

This means Ertz could take a backseat in Week 1 as Philadelphia’s wideouts and running backs do the heavy lifting.

Ks: MNF, SNF Provide Solid Kicker Options

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Don’t expect that names near the top of this list to change much this season. Kickers are not matchup-proof, but it is the position that requires the least amount of attention.

Stephen Gostkowski should be a fixture atop of the kicker rankings all season long, as the New England Patriots often find themselves in scoring position. The same can be said for Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens.

With fireworks expected between the Cowboys and Giants on Sunday Night Football, Dallas kicker Dan Bailey slips into the No. 2 slot for Week 1 while Giants kicker Josh Brown squeezes in at No. 10. It’s a similar story for Matt Bryant (Falcons, No. 4) and Cody Parkey (Eagles, No. 8), who will play against each other on Monday Night Football.

Week 1’s Top 10 Ks 

1. Stephen Gostkowski (NE vs. PIT)
2. Dan Bailey (DAL vs. NYG)
3. Justin Tucker (BAL at DEN)
4. Matt Bryant (ATL vs. PHI)
5. Blair Walsh (MIN at SF)
6. Steven Hauschka (SEA at STL)
7. Mason Crosby (GB at CHI)
8. Cody Parkey (PHI at ATL)
9. Matt Prater (DET at SD)
10. Josh Brown (NYG at DAL)

Breakout K of the Week: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

It should be a high-scoring affair when the Eagles take on the Falcons, giving Parkey plenty of chances to rack up the points. Parkey’s groin injury is worth monitoring, but he should be good to go in Week 1, with both Parkey and Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly asserting that Parkey’s rest in the preseason “was a precautionary move and that he could have kicked if needed,” according to the Philadelphia Inquirer's Bob Brookover. 

K Bust of the Week: Greg Zuerlein, St. Louis Rams

Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein is known around the fantasy world for his ability to kick long field goals, but his Week 1 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks—the fifth-best teams against kickers last season, per ESPN.com—should have you looking for another option.

D/STs: Carolina Top Streaming Option in Week 1

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If you aren’t streaming defenses, you are doing it wrong.

The only exception to this rule could be the Seattle Seahawks, but pigeonholing yourself into a single defense means you miss out on some great week-to-week matchups.

The top defense for Week 1—the Carolina Panthers—is the perfect example.

Carolina is not considered to be one of the best D/STs from a fantasy perspective this season, but their Week 1 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars should catch your attention. Opposing D/ST units scored 13.3 fantasy points per game when facing Jacksonville last season—by far the most in the league, according to ESPN.com.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also slip into the top five given their Week 1 matchup against rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans.

As you can see, most of the D/STs on this list are going up against offenses with question marks at quarterback.

Week 1’s Top 10 D/STs

1. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
3. Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins
4. New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Tennessee Titans
6. Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders
7. Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
8. Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
9. Green Pay Packers at Chicago Bears
10. Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Breakout D/ST of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Tennessee Titans) 

As noted above, the Buccaneers get a solid Week 1 matchup against rookie Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. Not only does Tennessee sport a rookie quarterback, but their running game—led by Bishop Sankey—doesn’t pose much of a threat either. Throw in the fact that this is a home game for Tampa Bay, and you have the makings of a solid D/ST effort.

D/ST Bust of the Week: Tennessee Titans (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 

Yes, the Titans are also going up against a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston, but it’s a different story.

For starters, Winston has considerably better weapons at his disposal, including two hulking wideouts in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Tampa Bay’s running game has also looked strong in the preseason. 

Bold Predictions: Jeremy Hill to Have Massive Week 1

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So, what are some of my bold predictions for the week? Let’s go with the “go big or go home” approach here. The word “bold” should actually mean something, shouldn’t it?

• Jordan Cameron scores two touchdowns. I noted on the TE slide that Cameron could be in line for a big week. How about two-touchdown big? The Redskins gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, and also ceded three multitouchdown games to the position. 

• Amari Cooper tops 100 yards and scores a touchdown in his rookie debut. Cooper’s solid preseason—eight catches for 124 yards—has me eager to see what he can do in the regular season. He put together those preseason stats on 74 snaps, per Pro Football Focus, which is about one game’s worth. It would be just the 12th time in NFL history that a rookie receiver went for over 100 yards and scored in Week 1, according Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

• Carson Palmer puts up QB1 (i.e., top 10) numbers in Week 1. I don’t have him ranked in the top 10—because rankings and projections are not one and the same—but Palmer could be in line for big Week 1 numbers as he faces the New Orleans Saints, who gave up 17.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season, fourth-most in the league.

• Tom Brady throws for over 400 yards and four touchdowns. This would actually almost be par for the course in recent games against Pittsburgh. Angry Tom Brady on national television with his starting running back suspended means Week 1 could end up being Brady’s best game of the season.

• Jeremy Hill has over 175 rushing yards. As noted on the RB slide, Hill’s first game comes against the putrid Oakland Raiders. My bold prediction was going to be 200-plus yards, but I decided to be bold and realistic by sticking to 175. Nobody would be complaining if Hill “only” puts up 175—unless you happen to be playing against him.