Frank Jackson Decision: Odds for Top Contenders to Sign 5-Star PG

Fresh off a weekend trip to Durham, North Carolina, 5-star 2016 recruit Frank Jackson—rated by 247Sports as the fourth-best point guard in next year's class—will be announcing his decision Tuesday, September 1, as first reported on Twitter by Aaron Falk of the Salt Lake Tribune.

An exceptionally talented scoring guard, Jackson averaged 24.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game on the Adidas circuit and 26.9 points per game during his junior season at Lone Peak, according to Evan Daniels of Scout.com, who also notes that a press conference has been set for 6:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Jackson is the type of player who could end up spending just one season at the collegiate level, but that certainly hasn't stopped schools from recruiting the heck out of him, as he could really be the catalyst that pushes a program to new heights for that one year.

Given the timing of the announcement and the fact that 247Sports has had Duke listed as the favorite to land Jackson for several months, most are operating under the assumption that the Blue Devils will be acquiring his services.

It's not quite a foregone conclusion, though, and we'll be taking a look today at the list of his final candidates to make some educated guesses on projected lineups, how he would fit into them and which team he is most likely to sign with.

4. Utah Utes

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Projected Starting Lineup: Frank Jackson, Kenneth Ogbe, Chris Reyes, Brekkott Chapman, Kyle Kuzma

How He Fits

To say that there's room for Jackson in Utah's projected lineup is about as massive an understatement as saying there's room for a five-year-old child's foot in one of Shaquille O'Neal's shoes.

The Utes lost Delon Wright and Dallin Bachynski this offseason. They'll definitely be losing Brandon Taylor, Jordan Loveridge and Dakarai Tucker next offseason, and there's a better than extremely good chance that Jakob Poeltl will also be leaving town. This coming year's recruiting class is ranked 10th-best—aka third-worst—in the Pac 12, and they haven't even signed anyone yet in the 2016 class.

That leaves Brekkott Chapman as the only player on the roster who has shown enough promise to not be at risk of losing a starting job to an average JUCO transfer.

There's no question that Jackson would get to play a ton and likely lead the team in scoring, but as things currently stand, he probably wouldn't even be enough to lead Utah to the 2017 NCAA tournament.

Odds He'll Sign: 150-1

3. Stanford Cardinal

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Projected Starting Lineup: Frank Jackson, Marcus Allen, Marcus Sheffield, Reid Travis, Michael Humphrey

How He Fits

After losing Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown and Stefan Nastic, Stanford could be headed for a rough 2015-16 season. Don't call it a rebuilding year, though, because the Cardinal already reloaded with a very strong 2014 recruiting class.

They just might need the upcoming season to really jell as a unit before getting ready to explode the following season—a lofty prediction that becomes a near-lock to happen if they're able to add Jackson to that rotation.

Assuming everyone stays—Reid Travis is probably the biggest threat to leave early, but we wouldn't call that a very likely scenario—this is a roster that will be absolutely loaded in the frontcourt, but could use some help on the perimeter.

Between Travis, Michael Humphrey, Marcus Sheffield, Josh Sharma and Cameron Walker, Johnny Dawkins has more forwards than he can possibly put to proper use. While Robert Cartwright is a perfectly capable ball-handler who could have a bit of a breakout 2015-16 season, upgrading to Jackson would probably elevate Stanford to a strong Sweet 16 candidate or better.

Moreover, Dawkins clearly isn't afraid to operate with a primary ball-handler who looks to create his own shot, as exhibited by the past two seasons of Randle.

Despite the solid personnel fit, I don't see it as his best personal one. If Jackson wants to get on the fast track to the NBA, Duke is the choice. If he wants to stay close to home, play multiple seasons or adhere to his religious tenets, BYU makes the most sense.

Odds He'll Sign: 15-1

2. Brigham Young Cougars

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Projected Starting Lineup: TBD

How He Fits

With players both leaving for and returning from Latter-day Saints missions, figuring out BYU's roster more than one year in advance can be a Rubik's Cube.

The real reason the Cougars' projected roster is listed as TBD, though, is because Frank Jackson very well might be one of those players who goes on a mission.

"Ever since I was a little kid it's something I dreamed about doing," Jackson told Brandon Gurney of Deseret News this past April. "So for me, it's an easy decision. Serving the Lord for two years is my first priority and it's always been that way. So it's really not something I even think about not doing."

Just a few months later, it didn't sound like a first priority anymore. Jackson told Jason Jordan of USA Today in early July, "It's going to be a tough decision for sure. At first I had decided to go ahead and do the mission, but in the last few weeks I started to think about it more and I'm not sure about that."

If he does decide to put off his basketball career for two years, BYU certainly has a ton of experience in working with players who go on a mission. Tyler Haws was one of the top scorers in the nation in each of the past three seasons, and he served his two-year mission after his freshman season.

BYU welcomed him back into the starting rotation with open arms, but there's no telling when a top-notch program like Duke will have a bit of a logjam of high-ranking recruits. Grayson Allen would have started at virtually any school in the country last season, but he barely saw the court for the Blue Devils.

Can Jackson really be sure of a starting job at Duke in 2018?

Back to the subject of Haws, though, the pipeline of talent from Lone Peak to BYU is very strong. Just in the past six years, the Cougars have signed Tyler Haws, Nate Austin, T.J. Haws, Nick Emery and Eric Mika from the high school in American Fork, Utah. They also originally got a commitment from Jackson after his freshman year of high school before he decided to reopen his recruiting.

The smart money is on Duke, but there are a good number of signs still pointing to BYU. If Jackson decides not to sign with the Blue Devils, it could mean the Cougars are getting their highest-rated recruit ever. 

Odds He'll Sign: 5-1

1. Duke Blue Devils

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Projected Starting Lineup: Derryck Thornton, Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum, Chase Jeter, Sean Obi

How He Fits

For as difficult as BYU's projected roster is to figure out a year in advance because of LDS missions, Duke's might be even more challenging because of NBA missions.

Brandon Ingram is very likely a one-and-done player, but what about the other three 5-star talents in this year's class? Whether those guys stay or go, what do we make of the long-rumored package deal that would have Harry Giles and Dennis Smith Jr. joining Jayson Tatum with the Blue Devils?

Head coach Mike Krzyzewski obviously wants Frank Jackson, but does he need him?

Sure, there's a scenario where Thornton bolts for the pros after one season, Smith signs elsewhere and Duke is suddenly in desperate need of a point guard. However, there are three other scenarios in which one or both of those highly rated point guards is still on the roster for the 2016-17 season and Jackson is lucky to play 10 minutes per game.

Then again, what if Jackson is committed to going on his mission and Krzyzewski is already working on his starting point guard for the 2018-19 season?

Whether or not Jackson actually ends up being a great fit in Duke's rotation is something we'll need to wait either 15 or 39 months to find out. But considering this announcement comes roughly 72 hours after his official visit to Duke, there's a pretty good chance that we'll eventually find out how he looks in royal blue.

Odds He'll Sign: 3-4

Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.