American Pharoah Imposing Favorite in Travers at Saratoga

Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is looking to keep the ball rolling on Saturday at Saratoga and will be the overwhelming favorite to do just that, as he takes on nine rivals in the Grade 1, $1.6 million Travers.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the colt rolled into Saratoga on Wednesday afternoon and has been the star attraction at the upstate New York racetrack.

On Friday morning, the colt attracted a crowd of over 15,000 just to watch him in his final gallop for the Midsummer Derby. A sellout crowd of 50,000 will cheer him on Saturday along with millions more on NBC during a two-hour telecast that gets underway at 4:00 p.m. ET.

"We had a nice little gallop today and it looked like everything went really smooth," Baffert said via Karen Johnson of Bloodhorse. "I could tell he really liked the track. He was floating around there like he usually does. I feel very happy with the way he went today.”

The colt comes into the Travers riding an eight-race winning streak and comes back just four weeks after taking the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on Aug. 2.  

The Travers may be his next-to-last race. His final race will be the Grade 1, $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 31. It is possible his connections could prep for the Classic in either the Grade 1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita or the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park, both in late September.

American Pharoah will be the fourth Triple Crown winner to attempt to win the Travers. The only horse to accomplish the feat was Whirlaway in 1941.  

Saratoga is known as the "Graveyard of Champions” with many top horses getting upset over the years. Among the horses that have tasted defeat at the Spa are Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Gallant Fox.

The colt faces a solid group that includes last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Grade 2 Jim Dandy runner-up Frosted, as well as Haskell runner-up Keen Ice, but it sure looks as if the American Pharoah Show will continue on Saturday at the Spa.

Here are my predictions for the top-three finishers for the Travers:

Win: American Pharoah

American Pharoah is going to be such a short price, and the temptation as a horseplayer is to bet against him, but the colt is coming into this race as well as he has all year, and if trainer Bob Baffert thinks he has not lost his edge despite making his seventh start this year, it is tough to take a stand against him.

He has the race shape in his favor as there is no early pace in here, and he looks very capable of taking this field gate to wire. He earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure last out winning the Haskell Invitational, where he opened up a clear lead heading for him and was geared down late, winning by 2 1/4 lengths. However, the winning margin could have been much larger. In fact, his only really testing race was in the Kentucky Derby. Other than that, most of his wins came rather easily. There is still plenty left in the tank.

Baffert has started five runners in the Travers, his lone winner being Point Given in 2001. He sent out Bayern last year, who had won the Haskell, but failed to fire, checking in 10th.

Place: Keen Ice

Keen Ice was no match for American Pharoah in the Haskell in a runner-up finish, but he still ran very well and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure. He has finished behind the Triple Crown winner in three straight starts without being much of a threat, but he has been showing more in each outing, and another move forward puts him in the mix here at least for the runner-up spot at a decent price.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux is off to ride Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Texas Red for his brother, but we get a very suitable replacement in Javier Castellano, the leading rider at the Spa in 2013 and 2014.

Show: Texas Red

Texas Red was no match for American Pharoah last fall in the Grade 1 FrontRunner, beaten by 3 3/4 lengths, but returned to romp in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile while the champ sat out with a foot injury. The Keith Desormeaux had his own foot issues, and that knocked him off the Kentucky Derby trail this spring.

The colt came back off a five-month break with a runner-up finish in the seven furlong Grade 3 Dwyer and then earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure winning the Grade 2  Jim Dandy over the main track at the Spa on the stretch out. The colt looks primed for a top effort in his third start off the bench but is likely going to get bet down a bit off the 8-1 morning line.

Morning line odds courtesy of Equibase

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