Fantasy Football 2015: Deep Sleeper Candidates Who Can Help Win Your League

What's deep? Deep is when the market is truly asleep. Deep is when you're drafting backs others leave for the waiver heap. Deep is when I see you, Seyi Ajirotutu. I didn't think a Biggie Smalls "What's Beef?"-inspired intro would work for a fantasy football article about deep sleepers, but I went for it anyway.

We know too much about the NFL these days. Or at least enough to potentially ruin the once celebrated concept of sleepers: players the market doesn't appreciate at a commensurate rate to production potential. Each summer, we witness tout-fueled average draft positions spike for specific players who pundits applaud.

Allen Robinson was going in the early ninth round in mid-June, but a rich route tree and the 73 articles hyping his upside as a potential target hog in Jacksonville have him regularly going in the fifth and sixth round these days. This isn't to say we still can't find strong ROI with players such as Robinson, but we should recognize the margins get tighter as ADP rises.

I was in an industry auction draft where Ameer Abdullah went for the same amount as Julio Jones. While this is an extreme example of arguably a 200 percent overpay, it's evidence that the helium of the hype machine can heavily inflate the market for certain players in the weeks leading up to the regular season. 

In this hyper-speed era of information sharing, finding under-the-radar assets in an ever-aware marketplace proves increasingly difficult as September approaches. With this in mind, we put together a list of players found with average draft positions lower than 150 overall on Fantasy Pros' consensus ADP board in an attempt to actually unearth some cheap gems. While these players are mostly lottery tickets, keep them in mind as you hit the final rounds of drafts.

Brandon Coleman: The Saints' Next Big Red-Zone Threat?

Bill Feig/Associated Press

Failing to catch a potential touchdown is rarely ideal, but I found it encouraging to see second-year wideout Brandon Coleman (ADP 233, WR 71) net a valuable end-zone target early in the Saints' preseason game versus the Patriots on Saturday night. 

Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills are no longer in New Orleans, taking with them 25 red-zone targets and 207 total targets (31 percent of Drew Brees' attempts) from last season's still-potent offense (third in passing yards, first in total yards). Graham enjoyed the most red-zone targets in the league over the past four seasons, including pacing the NFL in targets inside the 10- and 5-yard line. 

Enter Coleman, a 6'6" undrafted receiver out of Rutgers in 2014 who is gifted with an imposing physical profile that sees him qualify in the 98th percentile in height, 94th in weight, 92nd in arm length and 92nd in bench press among NFL receiving prospects since 1999. Michael Floyd and Marques Colston appear when seeking combine measurable comparisons.

Rookie inside linebacker Stephone Anthony recently appraised Coleman's physical prowess: “Incredible length—that’s the biggest challenge for a lot of DBs on our team, or for anybody,” Anthony told Brett Martel of the Shreveport Times. “A 6-6 guy being able to run like he can presents a great challenge. (The quarterback) just has to put the ball somewhere near him.”

Even in natural decline, we should remember we are witnessing a relative regression from Brees, who remains a special signal-caller. A recent piece by numberFire's Joseph Juan on Coleman's favorable prospects deftly highlights Brees' still-elite perch as a passer:

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Over the last three years, his top four targets in each season as a whole have averaged 13.5 yards per reception. Beyond this, when we consider all wide receivers playing with Brees over this timespan, this entire group has averaged an amazing 0.85 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target.

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Colston netted just 100 targets last season. The tight end options don't appear to be poised for high-volume usage (although Josh Hill could similarly claim a valuable share of Graham's red-zone void). The running backs will certainly get theirs. Brandin Cooks figures to be a threat for 80-plus receptions, albeit of the underneath variety.

There is a fairly massive void of unclaimed target shares—especially in the red zone—for the 2015 Saints. Coleman costs you basically nothing and currently claims the No. 3 receiver spot on a high-volume, high-efficiency passing offense.

Javorius "Buck" Allen: Baltimore's Best Receiving Back?

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

While obvious, if you draft Buck Allen (ADP 260, RB 79), you get a guy named Buck on your roster. Past the fun nickname, Allen is an interesting commodity in deeper PPR formats to consider.

Justin Forsett proved inefficient as a receiver last season, ranking 57th out of 68 qualifying backs (at least 100 routes run) in fantasy points per route run. The hallmark of the hype train for Forsett this offseason rests strongly on the infusion of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman and his target-heavy running back scheme. 

The inefficient receiving sample last season isn't wholly indicative of Forsett's skills as a receiver, but does suggest to me that there is risk in his production upside past inherent durability and availability concerns for a veteran tailback. 

A capable receiver on the college level, Allen tallied 63 receptions for 710 yards (11.3 yards per catch) the past two seasons at USC. As the 79th running back off the board, I'm netting shares of this intriguing rookie in the later rounds of PPR drafts.

Fantasy's Top Rookie Receiver? DeVante Parker Is Poised to Provide Profit

Injuries have already ravaged this rookie receiving class, with DeVante Parker's (ADP 155, WR 52) long recovery from offseason foot surgery a prominent example. Yet as the season approaches, Parker is poised to provide profits to patient investors. 

The Louisville product is a talented jump-ball receiver with an impressive catch radius. A large role could develop for Parker on a high-snap, Chip Kelly-inspired offense in need of capable outside threats, especially given the Dolphins' otherwise relatively small set of receiving peers. 

Last year was undeniably "The Year of the Rookie Receiver." This class simply isn't as rich, but Parker is one of the rare rookie wideouts I'm willing to reach for this season.

Move over Ladarius: Virgil Green Is the True Sleeper Tight End

John Froschauer/Associated Press

So I hear you are into young athletic tight ends who play with Peyton Manning. Makes sense. Owen Daniels is not that guy.

Investors are paying starting coin for Daniels; he's going as TE 11 on average at pick 115 overall. Call me a skeptic, but Daniels just finished a 15-game season with Gary Kubiak at the offensive helm and finished 18th at the position in fantasy points per game. Throw in the fact he's missed 30 percent of regular season games over the past six seasons, and Daniels' price proves untenable.

Meanwhile, Virgil Green (ADP 239, TE 26) sits second on the Broncos' tight end depth chart behind Owens, poised as an athletic standout ready to make the transition from trusted blocker to big-play maven, according to the Denver Post's Troy E. Renck. Green rates in the 99th percentile among tight end prospects since 1999 in the vertical jump, 98th in broad jump and 94th in the 40-yard dash.

Even if his NFL production pedigree is nonexistent, these are some impressive metrics. Maybe he's not the next Julius Thomas. Maybe he is. It doesn't cost much to find out.

Khiry Robinson Could Thrive If Given the Opportunity

Bill Feig/Associated Press

He had the third-highest elusive rating (forced missed tackles rate) among running backs with at least 50 carries in Pro Football Focus' database last season. We're talking about the Saints' Khiry Robinson (ADP 241, RB 72).

Robinson is available when your competitors are drafting kickers. Robinson has often flashed on game tape to me, yet he is clearly in a poor scenario for production opportunity behind Mark Ingram for early-down and goal-line rushing duties. I'm a fan of having insurance shares behind Ingram.

After Ray Rice's current ADP, you can land a guy who is an Ingram injury away from being the lead early-down and goal-line back on the league's top total yardage offense from last season. Ingram led all backs in rushes inside the 5 last season. Robinson averaged 17.3 touches in three games last season when Ingram sat out due to injury. Count me in for some cheap shares.

Get Shares of Brian Quick Quickly

Scott Kane/Associated Press

Brian Quick (ADP 192, WR 61) ranked ninth in PPR points per game among wideouts through Week 5 last season. While this assuredly should come with a small sample size warning, five weeks still registers as nearly 40 percent of the 13-week fantasy regular season. 

With some competence finally behind center in quarterback Nick Foles, Quick contends with a weak set of peers on the team's receiver depth chart. Recovery from a serious shoulder injury remains a concern as the season approaches, but with all of the risk already baked into his price yet with the requisite upside we covet, I'll quickly click on Quick from the 11th round on in drafts.

Tyler Lockett: The Little Big-Play Target

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Tyler Lockett (ADP 285, WR 86) is currently being drafted behind the Browns' fourth wide receiver. Lockett is a diminutive 4.4-speedster who plays much bigger than his 5'10" frame suggests. 

He already has a 103-yard touchdown this preseason and has drawn rave reviews from scouts and scribes alike for his work in practice and from his electrifying college film. 

The film junkies at College Football Focus are big fans of Lockett's work on the collegiate level: 

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Despite standing just 5-foot-10 and weighing 182 pounds, just made plays left and right, running smooth routes, making tough grabs and generally looking like a guy who should be drafted at the sharp end of the names called. In fact, there is very little to dislike about Lockett, even when watching the tape, with the only real knock being his size. If Lockett was four inches taller and 25 pounds heavier he would be a Top 10 pick.

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It might take some time for a fantasy-relevant role to develop, but boy this is a fun playmaker to pair with Russell Wilson's live arm.

Other ROI All-Stars: Eric Ebron, David Johnson and Cecil Shorts

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Eric Ebron (ADP 184, TE 20) isn't a balanced NFL tight end. He doesn't block effectively and has had drop issues in both games and practices in his young career. All that said, major draft capital from the front office and unique athleticism at the position should see him drafted higher than his current stock. NFL.com's Albert Breer suggests improvement is on the way:

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The man to watch here might actually be Ebron, who's turned heads internally with his improvement. If the 6-foot-4, 265-pound tight end can realize his considerable athletic potential, he can be the kind of chess piece Dallas Clark was for Caldwell in Indy, and Jimmy Graham was for Lombardi in New Orleans, which is exactly what the coaches had in mind when they drafted him 10th overall.

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David Johnson (ADP 160, RB 53) is competing on a depth chart with Samuel L. Jackson's character from Unbreakable and a dude who was unsigned to start to the month. Maybe that's a harsh evaluation of Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson, respectively, but the soft-handed rookie has a viable path to meaningful work. Johnson's strong preseason work, described by ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss, is noteworthy:

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Johnson shined in his preseason debut, showing off his upper-body strength with an array of stiff arms. While he still showed signs of rookie inexperience, especially in pass protection, Johnson developed a knack for finding the holes in the offensive line and getting through them.

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Succeeding in the face of inept quarterback play is sort of Cecil Shorts' (ADP 234, WR 72) thing, as he finished 22nd in both ESPN standard and PPR scoring in 2012 on the receiving end of Chad Henne's and Blaine Gabbert's legendary arms.

Chasing the second or third target on the Houston Texans doesn't sound so wise when you say it out loud, but as a WR 5 with a potentially worthy target share, the risk is mitigated by Shorts' bottom-dollar price.