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UFC 103: Is Rich Franklin in Over His Head against Vitor Belfort?

Bryan HaasSep 15, 2009

It may lack the sexiness of a fight involving Chuck Lidell or Brock Lesnar, but Saturday's matchup between Rick Franklin and Vitor Belfort at UFC 103 is bound to reshape the face of the middleweight division of the company.

Franklin (27-4-0, 1 no-contest), a former UFC middleweight champ, comes into this fight off a victory over seasoned UFC fighter Wanderlei Silva back in June.

Belfort (18-8) is coming off a win of his own, a January KO over Matt Lindland.

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Even though the bout (like Franklin's fight against Silva) is being contested at a catchweight of 195 pounds, neither fighter is a stranger to the middleweight division, which is currently being completely dominated by UFC middleweight champ Anderson "The Spider" Silva.

Widely considered to be the best fighter in the world at the moment, Silva has already defeated Franklin twice, the first time in October of 2006 for the UFC title, and then a little over a year later, when he defended the belt.

Both times he stopped Franklin via TKO.

So the question here is, could Franklin win, meaning a third fight on the horizon between Silva and Franklin?

The simple answer is no.

First off, there is speculation that Franklin eventually wants to move up to the light heavyweight division to make a run at champion Lyoto Machida, who defeated him in 2003. Franklin has even hinted that this weight class shift could happen.

More immediately, however, Franklin needs to deal with Belfort.

The 32-year-old Brazilian has proven to be unstoppable at times, and that likely will not change in this fight. Belfort has lightning fast hands, and the agility to run circles around the slightly older and slower Franklin.

In the fight against Lindland, which he won in only 37 seconds, Belfort floored his opponent with a stiff left to the chin, and followed it up with a succession of rights that can only be termed "lightning fast." Lindland went completely limp after the last punch, at which point Belfort hesitated a second or two before the referee stepped in to stop the onslaught.

A fighter who can throw punches with the speed and power that Belfort does is a rarity in today's MMA world. Franklin will need to draw upon every bit of experience he has in order to just keep up with Belfort.

In addition, Franklin sometimes has a tendency to shrug off fighting defensively in favor of a strong attack. That attitude cost him in the second fight against  Silva when he was dropped in the second round with a hard knee strike to the head.

Also, Franklin has been known to end a portion of his matches via submission, which is unlikely to happen against Belfort, whose lone submission loss came against Alistair Overeem more than four years ago.

Also, three of Belfort's last four fights have ended in KOs, with the longest of those affairs going late into the second round against Terry Martin.

His three-round decision win over James Zikic at Cage Rage 23 was Belfort's longest fight in nearly three years.

My prediction for this fight is that Franklin will make it out of the first round, albeit while stepping in post-holes. Belfort will come out with all his cylinders clicking in the second and drop Franklin to the mat shortly thereafter.

I also have some advice for Silva: Watch this fight closely because, soon enough, Vitor Belfort is coming for you.

But knowing The Spider, he's not worried at all.

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