Fantasy Football 2015: 8th-Round Values to Target and Reaches to Avoid

Potential starters at quarterback and wide receiver top the list of eighth-round values to target and reaches to avoid. Eli Manning, Allen Robinson and Ryan Tannehill can all post starter-worthy fantasy football numbers in 2015 for a bargain price.

Championship rosters are fortified in the late-middle rounds while the other guy is worrying about filling out his starting lineup. Avoid reaching on team defenses until at least the 12th or 13th, and save kickers for the last round of your draft (see the Honorable Mention slide).

Fantasy owners found gems like Lamar Miller (96th average draft position), Philip Rivers (95th), Greg Olsen (93rd) and Golden Tate (88th) in 2014’s eighth round, according to MyFantasyLeague.com. Busts lurked as well: Knowshon Moreno (92nd), Steven Jackson (91st) and Stevan Ridley (90th).

Use the following list as a guide to make sure you’re not taking someone too early or waiting too long as your fantasy draft marches on.

Guidelines

• Players listed are currently being drafted in the eighth round on average—the 85th through 96th position overall.
• Only the standard-scoring, season-long, redraft format was considered when compiling this list.
• Reach simply indicates the player’s average draft position (ADP) is well ahead of his expert consensus ranking (ECR), according to FantasyPros.
• Value means the opposite: Said player is dropping well below his ranking in ADP and should be targeted in between those two positions.

Honorable Mention

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Gostkowski's production, like all kickers, is difficult to predict and not worthy of a draft pick before the last round.

Reach: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

This isn’t meant to be a detraction from Stephen Gostkowski’s place as one of the best kickers in the league. It’s an indictment of fantasy owners drafting any kicker before the last round of their draft.

Don’t do it; it’s not smart.

Although one or two kickers seem to rise above the rest annually, there’s typically minimal difference between the remainder of the top 20.

Dan Carpenter finished fourth among kickers in fantasy scoring last season averaging 9.3 points per game, according to ESPN.com. Cairo Santos finished 19th averaging 7.3 PPG, only 2.0 PPG below a top-five rate.

For perspective, Peyton Manning finished fourth among quarterbacks at 19.2 PPG, compared to 19th-place Alex Smith at 12.8 PPG—a 6.4 PPG gap. At running back, Matt Forte (14.4) and Chris Ivory (7.8) finished 6.6 PPG apart. Wide receivers Dez Bryant (13.8) and Torrey Smith (8.6) were separated by 5.2 PPG, while tight ends Greg Olsen (8.2) and Mychal Rivera (4.3) differed by 3.9 PPG.

Drafting a kicker outside of the last round is a waste that could cost owners valuable depth and potential starters at other positions.

Reach: Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Dallas will likely take a committee approach with McFadden (center) and Randle (right).

The Cowboys backfield remains a speculative mess in the wake of DeMarco Murray’s departure to the Philadelphia Eagles. Joseph Randle is the presumed starter behind the strongest offensive line in the league—according to Pro Football Focus—but Darren McFadden is a tempting RB2 based on his ninth-round ADP (No. 100).

Fantasy owners are waking up to McFadden’s actual potential this season (ECR: No. 139) as his stock continues to drop, but even a ninth-rounder for a guy averaging 3.3 yards per carry over the past three seasons is too high.

ESPN.com's Todd Archer tweeted McFadden ran with the first team on Tuesday, but don’t forget he spent OTAs and the beginning of training camp sidelined with separate hamstring injuries.

Plus, Cowboys brass and coaches keep promoting a committee approach in 2015. Charean Williams of the Star-Telegram reported running backs coach Gary Brown said, “We’re going to try to spread [carries] out and keep guys fresh.”

Owner and team president Jerry Jones also hinted at a committee at running back when comparing the skills and experience of Randle and McFadden, according to Williams.

“To some degree, that’s the kind of back—if you add those two together—that we had in Murray.”

Taking McFadden in the eighth or ninth round will likely be a pick wasted considering Tre Mason, Ryan Mathews and Shane Vereen are projected to still be on the board. 

Draft-day takeaway: McFadden started only 63 contests in seven seasons with the Oakland Raiders. The No. 4 overall pick out of Arkansas in 2008 missed 29 games in total, playing a full season just once (2014).

Value: Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots

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Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell (19) against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon LaFell needed a change of scenery to become a relevant fantasy producer.

The Carolina Panthers’ third-round pick out of LSU in 2010 posted career highs with 74 receptions for 953 yards and seven touchdowns. He tied for 21st in fantasy scoring among wide receivers with A.J. Green and Anquan Boldin (8.5 points per game).

New England must be confident in LaFell’s potential for another strong season since the Patriots didn’t draft a wide receiver despite the considerable depth at the position among rookies. Or maybe it’s because head coach and general manager Bill Belichick got gun-shy after so many whiffs in late April, according to Oliver Thomas of 247Sports.

LaFell has not participated in New England’s OTAs or training camp due to an undisclosed foot injury, according to Shalise Manza Young of the Boston Globe on Twitter. He’s still on the physically unable to perform list, which isn’t an uncommon preseason precaution by the Patriots, according to the Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe.

Fantasy owners should take advantage of LaFell’s drooping ADP (99th overall) considering his seventh-round ECR (80th). His WR2 upside is greater than contemporaries getting drafted ahead of him: Victor Cruz (ADP: No. 88), Nelson Agholor (No. 89) and Torrey Smith (No. 95).

Draft-day takeaway: NumberFire.com and Pro Football Focus both graded LaFell 33rd among wide receivers in 2014.

Value: Eli Manning, New York Giants

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Improved arm strength, a favorable schedule and a low asking price make Manning an excellent value in the seventh or eighth round.

WFAN’s Mike Francesa interviewed both Eli Manning and co-owner John Mara on Monday, confirming both sides want Manning to finish his career with the Giants.

"We're going to try to lock him up,” Mara said. “We're still having discussions with his agent. Our goal is to still try to reach a contract before the regular season starts. There's no deadline on it. We want him to finish his career as a Giant, and that's something we think he wants, too.”

Manning added there is “no doubt” he wants to be a Giant for life.

Fantasy owners can rest assured contract negotiations should not be a distraction far into the 2015 season, if at all.

Coaches and teammates are impressed with Manning’s improved arm strength, according to Dan Salomone of Giants.com.

“It is lively, very lively,” head coach Tom Coughlin said. “He has worked hard on that.”

“He overthrew me twice, and I don’t ever recall that happening," wide receiver Rueben Randle said. "That is something we noticed down at Duke working with him. We noticed that his arm got stronger, and that is exciting for us.”

“Eli has put a lot of time and effort into his footwork and his training there and to his upper body and his strengthening and maintenance in those types of things,” offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo said. “I like the look in his eye right now. His offseason has been encouraging.”    

Improved arm strength will be important as Manning enters 2015 with even more receiving weapons alongside Randle, Larry Donnell and Odell Beckham Jr. New York signed running back Shane Vereen in the offseason for his versatility as a receiver out of the backfield, and Victor Cruz is expected to be fully recovered from a torn patellar tendon by Week 1.

Manning and the Giants will be better acclimated to McAdoo’s offense in year two, and he faces the second-most favorable schedule among fantasy quarterbacks, according to Aaron Watson of numberFire.com. 

His ADP is creeping upward (85th overall), but Manning still makes a great value considering his seventh-round ECR (74th). He hasn’t missed a start in 11 seasons and will be a reliable QB1 in 2015. 

Draft-day takeaway: His goal is to drop the interception number into the single digits over a full season for the first time in his career, according to NJ.com's Jordan Raanan on Twitter.

Value: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Robinson is so undervalued he would be a steal in the seventh round as well.

Jacksonville spent its “organic” second-round pick in 2014 on receiving prospect Marqise Lee out of USC, trading back into the second round later to snatch Allen Robinson out of Penn State with hardly a note of fanfare. But now it’s Robinson leading the Jaguars’ young receiving corps while Lee struggles with injuries.

Robinson is not immune to injury, ending a promising rookie season in Week 11 with a broken foot. But Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union reported the second-year pro is impressing in training camp.

“[Robinson] picked up where he left off last November against Dallas in London. Robinson has shown fluidity as a route-runner and is making the tough and routine catches look similarly easy.”

Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked passing offense from 2014 isn’t expected to erupt in Blake Bortles’ second NFL season, but a complete 16-game effort from Robinson could yield WR2 rewards. He could end up the best value in the middle rounds, going 87th in ADP despite his 65th-ranked grade in ECR.  

Draft-day takeaway: Robinson finished just five receptions below team leader Cecil Shorts III in receptions (48 to 53) and 129 yards behind Allen Hurns in receiving yardage (548 to 677) despite playing in only 10 games.

Value: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

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If Tannehill improves his deep-passing accuracy, he'll reward patient fantasy owners with a complete QB1 skill set.

Ryan Tannehill’s development is remarkable through just five seasons as a starting quarterback in college and the pros. He graded 11th among quarterbacks in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. He finished 10th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.

The three-year veteran managed a 16.7-point increase in passer rating from 76.1 in his rookie year to 92.8 last season, good for 14th among qualified quarterbacks. He accomplished this behind the worst offensive line in football, according to PFF. Durability is not an issue, as he hasn’t missed a start despite taking 139 career sacks.

Tannehill’s legs are underrated, finishing fifth in rushing among quarterbacks with 311 yards. His ability to rack up more valuable yardage on the ground is a boon to his fantasy prospects among his second-tier contemporaries: Matt Ryan (145), Tony Romo (61), Tom Brady (57), Eli Manning (31) and Ben Roethlisberger (27).

Dolphins general manager Dennis Hickey surrounded his quarterback with weapons this offseason, trading for Kenny Stills, signing Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron in free agency then drafting DeVante Parker and Jay Ajayi. Then he extended Tannehill’s rookie contract for four years and $77 million more.

Head coach Joe Philbin told USA Today he still expects Tannehill to develop, according to Lindsay H. Jones:

"

The focus is decision making, throwing the ball accurately and making big plays. If he can do those three things—and that's what we've been preaching to him when he got here—the good thing I think, from my chair, is that he's gotten better in all those areas. But there is still room to grow. That's a positive, not a negative.

"

Tannehill currently ranks 73rd in ECR—a high seventh-round grade—but fantasy owners are letting him slip to 90th in ADP, near the back of the eighth. Targeting Tannehill in the seventh or eighth as part of a “zero quarterback” strategy could pay solid QB1 dividends for a fantasy lineup stacked at the other positions. 

Draft-day takeaway: Tannehill’s durability is not in question since he hasn’t missed a start taking 139 career sacks, including 210 combined sacks, hits and hurries in 2014, per PFF.

Average draft position and consensus ranking courtesy of FantasyPros, NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, fantasy stats provided by CBSSports.com, contract and salary-cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.