College Basketball Teams Most Likely to Disappoint in 2015-16
"Perception is reality." — Lee Atwater
Ol' Lee was ahead of his time, a political strategist who knew how to craft a message for his candidate and destroy his opponent's.
He knew all the buttons on the hype machine, which plays right into college basketball this time of year.
For better or worse, right or wrong, there is nothing but positive comments about teams—like it's spring training or something. Doesn't anyone get a little tired of the hype?
The raw truth is that there are going to be letdowns this winter. Ranked teams won't flourish. Expected stars will stutter. Up-and-comers won't arrive. Fast-rocketing freshmen will never quite reach the stars as we dream for them. We pick on one league in particular (you might know it better for football) because of some unique circumstances.
Like it or not, we're here to take the warm and fuzzy out of summer.
And if you've never heard of Atwater, maybe The Eagles are your jive when thinking of the 2015-16 season: "Somebody's gonna come undone./There's nothin' we can do."
Here are 10 teams that bound for some heartbreak, if not tonight, then by March.
Cal
1 of 10
The hype: Making some West Coast noise with young talent
The shortcoming: No real depth
What in the name of Jason Kidd is going on here? We're about to find out.
The problem with really strong teams on the West Coast is that it's tough for a majority of the country to watch them (time difference and all).
It'll be interesting to see if a lot of East Coasters feel compelled to use DVR space on this Golden Bears revival. Coach Cuonzo Martin is in rare Berkeley air, trying to compete with Arizona head-on with freshman talent.
Martin brought stellar wing Jaylen Brown from Georgia to play alongside local (Oakland) forward Ivan Rabb.
A couple of young studs mixing with an 18-15 team sounds like a decent bet, especially in an up-for-grabs Pac-12 after all of Arizona's losses.
But Cal's hype machine could break down on two levels.
This is a team that has talent in spades along the three-point line but isn't very tall, especially after losing 6'10'' David Kravish.
Then there's just not much quality depth. Brown and Rabb will have to take a bunch of people where no one has traveled—and Cal finished four games under .500 last year in league play.
That's a lot to put on those shoulders, along with a pretty tough early schedule that includes games against San Diego State, Virginia, Davidson and either West Virginia or Richmond (in Las Vegas) in a classic tone-setting slate.
But speaking of shoulders, if Rabb's physical development at Cal is any indication, maybe we'll be wrong on how much muscle the Bears will have this winter.
Mississippi State
2 of 10
The hype: Getting in NCAA at-large bid range
The shortcoming: Just not enough parts yet
The further we get away from his UCLA days, the more improbable it seems that Ben Howland never won a national championship.
Russell Westbrook. Kevin Love. Arron Afflalo. Darren Collison. The list goes on, as one of America's shiniest programs certainly had a mark left on it by a childhood fan who worked his way up and took the Bruins to three straight Final Fours (2006 to 2008) but never could get quite over the hump.
That hump sure has to look appealing, considering he's bound to take over a massive uphill battle.
Howland (who turned 58 in May) is off to a good start with recruiting. He'll have Malik Newman, a 6'3" guard who is ranked as the No. 5 player in the 2015 recruiting class. He's also considered the top shooting guard and top player from the state of Mississippi after averaging about 23 points and five rebounds in his final two high school seasons.
Throw in two Bulldogs veterans—guard Craig Sword and 6'9'' Gavin Ware—and MSU could be asking for more cowbell at basketball games, too.
Mind you, we're not here to judge Howland's ceiling for years two, three and four. But note that since the SEC expanded to 14 teams (2012-13) Mississippi State hasn't been better than 12th place. This is supposed to be an NCAA contender right away?
According to the Associated Press via USA Today, Howland "was hungry and ready to get back into coaching," athletic director Scott Stricklin said in March right after the hire, which ended Howland's two-year coaching hiatus. "I was really surprised he was still on the market, and I wanted to take advantage of that."
There's talk of this being a sleeper bubble team, but that may be asking too much in this particular SEC.
Sure, Kentucky won't be as stellar as last year's platoon, but Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Texas A&M will be in the running to a big degree for NCAA tournament bids and won't be in a position to overlook any league teams.
Howland's rebuild will emphasize defense, but Newman won't be totally able to overhaul an offense that was atrociously inaccurate and, more specifically, careless with the ball.
South Carolina
3 of 10
The hype: Making another noticeable climb
The shortcoming: Too little scoring ability
You have to admire the work Frank Martin is doing in Columbia. A team that won two SEC games four years ago has at least won four, five and six in his opening three years, respectively.
There is realistic room for another leap with the return of some experience—Sindarius Thornwell in particular—but also because P.J. Dozier is a top-25 recruit who is staying home. That's going to bring some big-time buzz.
But the buzzkill could be this group's shoddy offense coupled with Martin's woes in league play.
A group that ranked 314th in effective field-goal percentage should be improved with Dozier and others around him.
Martin will have an interesting dynamic. The Gamecocks lost seven games last season by six or fewer points but also won five games over teams that went to the 2015 NCAA tournament.
Five players averaged better than 20 minutes per game, but there isn't a routine scorer in the bunch.
Can the freshman Dozier be the perfect missing link?
It's possible. But what's also possible is opponents can continue to make South Carolina shoot cockeyed. And for all of the buildup of recent years, Martin has still won just 27 percent (15-39) of his regular-season SEC games, including 6-12 last year.
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Kansas
4 of 10
The hype: Business as usual, plus a deeper NCAA run
The shortcoming: Too-quiet leadership, or point guard health
Disappointment could come in two stages this year for the Jayhawks.
Winning a 12th consecutive Big 12 title is no sure thing, considering the depth of the league. But even if you're conceding early March glory, that doesn't exactly mean KU won't find some heartbreak down the road.
This is one of Bill Self's most experienced teams. Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden haven't quite turned into NBA players, and that's to KU's benefit. Selden appeared to figure out his game in South Korea during the team's romp to gold at the University Games.
Frank Mason shined at point guard. Hunter Mickelson looked like the second coming of Jeff Withey (now someone must produce an anonymous Twitter account for Mickelson to rival this one) overseas. And the summertime flow didn't even include Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Brannen Greene and Devonte' Graham.
But there's a flip side to all of this.
Those countries that KUSA was playing at the WUG weren't exactly like going to Iowa State in January or February. Freshman forward Carlton Bragg looked lost at times against inferior competition. Cheick Diallo still hasn't been academically cleared by the NCAA. Self could use some forwards along the lines of the Morris twins, Thomas Robinson, etc., after missing them last year.
The big question mark is Ellis. He can be hit-and-miss with his value in games, though he was making a push to be Big 12 Player of the Year, as Sean Keeler of Fox Sports Kansas City wrote last February, until some late-season knee troubles.
Still, he's hardly an alpha dog that Self would crave. The 6'9'' senior can be quiet and stoic on the floor. It's not a question of his desire or abilities, but it is a poke at leadership and knowing how to take control.
Throw in a summertime torn quad to Graham (who is Mason's backup), and Kansas may not be all that and a bag of chips in the long haul.
Pepperdine
5 of 10
The hype: Hype itself
The shortcoming: No experience dealing with the "H" word
We transition from Kansas to...Pepperdine. And this makes a little sense if you'll follow along.
Kansas dominates the Big 12, yet the league doesn't get a tarnished reputation for it. Generally, the Jayhawks earn praise, and so do their understudies. That's not the case, exactly, in the West Coast Conference—where Gonzaga dominates and the country generally yawns (Gonzaga's NCAA tournament work gets praised but not so much the path to get there).
So now here comes Pepperdine with a reasonable chance to at least make it interesting out West.
Since 2001, Gonzaga's Mark Few has only failed once (2012) in winning a regular-season WCC title. But Pepperdine's Marty Wilson has an experienced team that did some good things last year as a launching point.
If only it could hold up.
You may recall during football conference realignment that BYU made one of the most daring moves—football independence and shuffling hoops to the WCC. That was supposed to help deepen the league. But really, only Gonzaga has consistently risen, while Saint Mary's (the champ in 2012) and BYU have played next-in-line and struggled to make the NCAA tournament.
But here come the Waves. Or they could.
Wilson returns every valuable player from a group that lost to a fantastic Gonzaga squad twice in the regular season, but only by a total of 10 points.
But then came the WCC tournament semifinal: Pepperdine had a day of rest after a quarterfinal win, a neutral court (though Gonzaga would have a huge fan edge in Las Vegas) and a 79-61 loss, including a 30-10 run in the second half that put the Waves in their place.
First place may not be realistic either. GU lost its four-year starting backcourt (Gary Bell Jr. and Kevin Pangos) but should still be the Zags to a high degree, especially inside.
Pepperdine's biggest problems are not appearing to have extra gears at either end of the floor. It's not a good scoring team and doesn't create many extra chances with steals.
Throw in a program-wide lack of history—it's coming off a postseason bid for the first time since 2002—and it'll be a wonder if Pepperdine can overcome heritage of the league's "Big Three" that know a little more about what it takes to win annually.
It would be good for the WCC's image to have another team in the mix, but Pepperdine will have to handle a lot of expectations.
LSU
6 of 10
The hype: A lot of it, centered on a stud freshman
The shortcoming: If followers forget what was lost
If it feels like we're picking on the SEC, good.
We are.
With reason, though.
Mississippi State is just too undermanned. South Carolina will be hard-pressed to take the next leap. LSU is another big reason to be critical.
It seems about as reasonable to expect a major March run out of the freshman-studded Tigers as it would be to get football coach Les Miles to "just be normal" during an entire football season.
There will be glitches in both.
As for hoops, remember that Ben Simmons can't do it alone, as good as he might be.
Simmons and fellow frosh Antonio Blakeney will have the time and chances to be excellent. The cast includes another newbie, Brandon Sampson, plus Keith Hornsby, Tim Quarterman, Josh Gray and Jalyn Patterson, who all played more than 24 minutes per game. LSU should be helped by a summer game tour of Simmons' native Australia.
But factor in this: The frontcourt law firm-sounding tandem of (Jordan) Mickey and (Jarell) Martin scored 43 percent of LSU's points last season and was responsible for 47 percent of the rebounds.
Remember this when thinking about Simmons: Kansas' Andrew Wiggins and Duke's Jabari Parker each faced his share of first-year struggles, and neither made it out of the NCAA tournament's first weekend in 2013 despite reasonable opportunities.
Asking any more of Simmons would be absurd under the circumstances.
Iowa State
7 of 10
The hype: The potential to be so, so good
The shortcoming: New "Mayor" could be a city councilman
On Aug. 17, new Iowa State basketball coach Steve Prohm retweeted an NFL Network picture of quarterback Robert Griffin III, which also noted that the beleaguered Redskins player "doesn't lack confidence."
In a roundabout way, the same could be said of Prohm. He certainly has a career on the incline these days (unlike Griffin, seemingly), but it sure takes some brass to want to replace an absolute legend.
That's why this season shapes up to not work out, which would make it one of the sadder stories of the season.
Fred "The Mayor" Hoiberg was a local star who went on to play in Ames and then the NBA and returned (sans coaching experience) to resurrect Hilton Coliseum into a magical place—with huge attendance numbers and four NCAA bids in five years. He rebuilt the thing and, most impressively, did it with unheralded recruits and brilliant transfer choices.
Hoiberg is in the NBA now.
That leaves the 41-year-old Prohm (only a year younger than Hoiberg, by the way) in for a major promotion after being at Murray State since 2006 (2011 as the head coach). He'll have a choice roster that features Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Georges Niang and Monte Morris.
Can it work? Style says yes. The Racers and Cyclones both shoot fast. Murray State had 6'2" sophomore Cameron Payne, who's now in the NBA, so Prohm can work with high-level talent.
One question is how he will fare in an elite coaching league. Another is how he'll handle replacing a hero.
And yet another concern is defense. While Hoiberg's Cyclones weren't sticklers for guarding, last year's Murray team was considerably worse—100 spots, according to KenPom's defensive-efficiency ratings.
What largely worked in the Ohio Valley Conference will have trouble flying in the Big 12. Even with all the on-court experience, it'll be on the sidelines where the Cyclones have their biggest challenges to live up to the hype.
Marquette
8 of 10
The hype: A big recruiting class
The shortcoming: Too much "new" amid an experienced league
It seems like longtime Dukie-turned-second-year Marquette coach Steve Wojciechowski is going to really have the Golden (Eagle) touch soon.
But asking for an NCAA bid—while it's being talked about—is asking for too much out of this year's Big East Conference. Marquette is simply so new, though he does have a spectacular recruiting class coming in led by Henry Ellenson, a 6'10" in-state product whose brother also transferred to the Milwaukee campus.
Marquette went 13-19 last year and loses three starters. That isn't a death knell, considering this wasn't a highly functional offense. But Wojo's team being in "sleeper mode" means having to figure out ways to beat some quality league competition.
Villanova will have a sensational guard line and is only better with freshman Jalen Brunson.
Butler nearly beat Kentucky in the NCAA tournament and returns a large chunk of that team. It wouldn't be a shock to see Xavier or Georgetown right at the top.
Which leaves Marquette looking for a way in. Perhaps it figures out a few tricks while touring Europe.
So there's a decent chance this team won't be labeled a disappointment. But there's also a top-flight recruiting class that simply may not make the dent it wishes in Big East teams. The tables just don't seem set up in the Golden Eagles' favor to make a big jump.
Nebraska
9 of 10
The hype: Well, none really, except a great social media follow
The shortcoming: A lot of losing could be a reason to un-follow
This is easily the weirdest choice.
Even Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller pegged the Cornhuskers to finish 13th in the Big Ten this year. If you're scoring at home, there's just one lower place to land (sorry for now, Rutgers).
But the reason for disappointment is because there may not be much reason to pay attention to head coach Tim Miles.
And he's worth a follow on Twitter, as more than 86,000 can attest.
Miles was always an open book at Colorado State (even doing a weekly "reality show" diary when the Mountain West had its own network). He's been at places that aren't exactly basketball powers, so he's tried to find ways to get his name and his program's name out there to recruits and the community.
The media like him for obviously selfish reasons. He interacts with reporters too. Fans love him because he's personable.
There wasn't much to talk about down the stretch of last season. Nebraska lost its last nine games.
This year could be similarly tough. Terran Petteway declared for the NBA draft but didn't even get drafted. Walter Pitchford stopped hooping early. Tarin Smith transferred to Duquesne. That's three top scorers who didn't have to leave Lincoln.
Kansas transfer Andrew White III and freshmen Glynn Watson Jr. and Ed Morrow will lead the charge in keeping "Nebrasketball" relevant.
In the meantime, it's a joy following Miles' comments from the team's summer trip to Spain.
Maryland
10 of 10
The hype: All day, every day
The shortcoming: Recreating last year's balance and unity, plus a karmic balancing out
Being more realistic, here's a Big Ten team that could actually disappoint.
Maryland doesn't seem to have a chance to go anywhere but down these days.
Make no mistake, the Terrapins are loaded. Mark Turgeon certainly flipped the script on his hype machine quite fast. At the beginning of the season, critics wondered if the Terrapins would ever amount to anything. By the time Melo Trimble chose to stay for a sophomore year, people talked about the team for a national championship.
Of course, it won't be that easy. Even with a couple of transfers (Georgia Tech's Robert Carter and Duke's Rasheed Sulaimon), Maryland will have its work cut out to win the Big Ten, let alone achieve bigger dreams later in March.
The Terps lost seven seniors, which doesn't tell the whole story. Only three (led by 6'5'' Dez Wells) really contributed. But the bigger point is the 2014-15 team had great unity and purpose.
That led to really good mojo, especially in KenPom's luck category of winning close games.
We know Trimble will be a playmaker and make free throws. This team is going to be good...but as good as the outsiders think?
More talented teams (you could argue Maryland has upgraded this year overall) don't exactly make for better results. Maryland might unfortunately prove that theory.
Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports. Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com.
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