Fantasy Football 2015: Who Are This Year's Riskiest Draft Picks?

With fantasy drafts in full swing, it’s time to take a look at this year’s riskiest picks. There's nothing wrong with rolling the dice every once in a while—"no risk, no reward" does have some merit—but there are some players who are riskier than others for a variety of reasons: injury concerns, a new team, new teammates, faltering play or all of the above.

There's a certain level of risk associated with every draft pick, but if your Round 14 gamble on Tavon Austin doesn't pan out, odds are it's not going to derail your season. This article will look only at players typically taken in the early and middle rounds of fantasy drafts.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the eight riskiest picks in 2015 fantasy football drafts.

LeSean McCoy, Running Back, Buffalo Bills

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LeSean McCoy may find life a little harder in Buffalo than he did in Philadelphia, but his big name still has him going in the first round of fantasy drafts.

Not only does McCoy’s pedigree make him seem more valuable than he really is, but Rex Ryan, the new head coach in Buffalo, isn’t doing McCoy’s value any favors. Per ESPN, Rex Ryan said in earlier August that Buffalo will “probably [have] the biggest playbook in the history of man in our running back.”

A statement like this naturally causes fantasy football players’ ears to perk, but it’s important to remember the source: Rex Ryan is (in)famous for his bravado. In order for Ryan’s “history of man” assertion to become true, McCoy would have to top the 416 rushing attempts Larry Johnson posted for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2006. Don’t hold your breath.

With that said, based on volume alone—even if it’s not historic—McCoy has a good chance of finishing the season as a tail-end RB1, but there are other players being drafted near McCoy that are safer bets, including wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant.

The real risk of drafting McCoy is that he will be severely handicapped by poor quarterback play thanks to the grotesque carousel of Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. If you enjoy watching your first-round pick on the sideline because his quarterback keeps throwing interceptions, then perhaps McCoy is the player for you.

Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, New England Patriots

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Rob Gronkowski is the perfect example of “go big or go home.” He’s far superior to any other tight end prospect from a fantasy perspective, especially with Jimmy Graham now on the Seattle Seahawks, but there’s no denying his recent injury history.

For what it’s worth, Gronkowski is the only player on this list that is considered a higher risk because of injury concerns—but that’s not the only reason why he should be considered a risk in 2015.

The other angle: Tom Brady’s looming suspension.

Gronkowski may be 90 percent quarterback-proof, but the difference between Brady and second-year pro Jimmy Garoppolo is palpable, and Brady is expected to miss a sizable chunk (25 percent) of the season.

Yes, Gronkowski caught a touchdown from Garoppolo when the latter played during the fourth quarter of the blowout loss to Kansas City last year, but we’re not suggesting that Gronkowski will be useless with Garoppolo under center—that’d be a foolish claim.

It’s more about the indirect impact Brady’s absence will have on Gronkowski’s fantasy value. With no Brady, the Patriots offense figures to be less efficient, which will lower Gronkowski’s scoring chances during the first four games of the season.

Truth be told, with Gronkowski, the reward likely outweighs the risk. But with a first-round price tag in some formats, it’s natural for fantasy players to think twice before pulling the trigger on Gronk.

Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints

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Brandin Cooks is currently being drafted toward the end of the third round or beginning of the fourth as a tail-end WR1 or high-end WR2. Thanks to the departures of Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, Cooks is the favorite to see the bulk of the targets in Drew Brees’ offense. That alone makes Cooks worth a look in fantasy.

But fantasy players that draft Cooks are required to take a leap of faith because of how little they’ve seen him play. By definition, that makes him risky.

In 10 games last season, Cooks turned 70 targets into 53 receptions, 550 yards and three touchdowns. Extrapolated over 16 games, that equates to 112 targets for 85 receptions, 880 yards and five touchdowns. He would have to put up significantly better numbers to warrant WR1 consideration. The bright side is that statistics like this make Cooks more enticing in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues, where he’ll have a decent floor because of a steady stream of receptions.

However, not only has Cooks not assumed a team’s No. 1 wideout position before, but the entire New Orleans Saints offense looks different than it has in year’s past. The most important puzzle piece—Drew Brees—is still in place, but Graham was the other cornerstone of the offense. With C.J. Spiller now in town and Mark Ingram lining up for another big year, the Saints offense could be much more balanced than we’ve grown accustomed to.

That’s not to say the offense won’t pass the ball enough for Cooks to be an elite fantasy option, or that Cooks won’t rise to the occasion, but there are a lot of moving parts in New Orleans—Cooks being one of them—which makes him a risky pick this year.

Joseph Randle, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys

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Joseph Randle is a risky pick in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts mostly because fantasy players seem to be drafting Dallas’ offensive line—not Randle himself.

This is a natural thing to do. The Cowboys had the second-best run-blocking unit in the league last year, per Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). The addition of rookie La’El Collins—who put together this gem of a block in the first preseason game, captured by Deryk Gilmore on Twitter—only adds to the mystique.

In short, the Randle hype is easy to understand. He’s in line to start for a team that featured the No. 1 fantasy football running back just one year ago. He himself has put together a nice resume (little though it may be), with a 4.8 yards per carry (YPC) average throughout his career, including a 6.7 YPC average in 2014. 

But an elite offensive line does not automatically make Randle an elite fantasy running back. He also has only 105 carries in his career. For comparison, DeMarco Murray carried the ball 392 times last year alone. Randle has yet to prove that he can handle a workload worthy of high-end RB2 consideration.

Additionally, with Murray now off the team, it’s hard to see the Cowboys leaning on the run as much this year. The run-heavy approach in 2014 was likely the outlier, not the new norm.

The team is still helmed by Tony Romo, and Dez Bryant’s mega-contract only serves to reaffirm that Dallas saw its future in Bryant and a passing attack. Romo-to-Bryant fades from the 1-yard line should be burned into your retina by now, and if you own Randle in 2015, the image may give you nightmares.

If Randle falls to you in the fourth round, the potential reward is worth the risk. However, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Randle is currently costing fantasy football owners a third-round pick, a fact that only makes the risk even greater.

Peyton Manning, Quarterback, Denver Broncos

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Peyton Manning a fantasy football risk? For perhaps the first time in his career—except for maybe 2012, when he was returning from injury on a brand-new team—yes, Manning is a risk.

Manning’s struggles down the stretch last year are well documented. His mind may have been as sharp as ever, but his body clearly couldn’t keep up. A full offseason of rest will undoubtedly have Manning looking like, well, Manning to start the season, but as the freshness wears off, you have to wonder when—not if—the regression will commence.

Per data from Pro Football Focus, through 11 games last season, Manning had 11 top-12 finishes among quarterbacks in fantasy leagues. Over the final five games of the season, Manning did not post a single top-12 performance. In fact, not only did he fail to put up a QB1 effort during those final five games, he also scored fewer total points than players such as Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Kyle Orton, Geno Smith and Shaun Hill in that span.

Has Manning fallen so far from grace that he’s now pulling up the rear with that cast? No. But his decline was evident, and it came at the worst possible time for fantasy owners—the fantasy playoffs.

Manning is currently the third quarterback being taken in fantasy drafts, per Fantasy Football Calculator, and he’s going in the fourth round. Only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are going before Manning, which means players such as Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Tony Romo are going several rounds later.

It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Manning finish as a top-five quarterback, thus vindicating his current ADP. It also wouldn’t be all that surprising to see any of the other quarterbacks mentioned above finishing in the top five, which makes Manning a risk not just because of the questions surrounding his longevity but also because of his current price. 

T.Y. Hilton, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts

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T.Y. Hilton just landed a huge contract—which speaks volumes about how much the Indianapolis Colts like the wideout—but there are a few things that should make you think twice before drafting Hilton as your WR1.

For starters, it's hard to see Hilton improving on his impressive 2014 outing. There's a reason he just signed a new deal: Odds are he'll never be as valuable as he is right now. Read another way, that means it's downhill from here.

It won't be a rapid descent, of course, but there's a good chance we've seen the best Hilton has to offer. He snagged 82 balls for 1,345 yards and seven scores last year, making him a tail-end WR1. Drafting him as a WR1 again in 2015—which is what's happening—means you are expecting another career year out of Hilton.

That, in and of itself, is risky. When you combine that expectation with the other happenings in Indianapolis, including the additions of wideout Andre Johnson and running back Frank Gore, it makes Hilton's price tag look steep. And don't forget the Colts spent a first-round draft pick on wide receiver Phillip Dorsett this year as well.

In addition to the extra mouths Andrew Luck now has to feed, there's a legitimate chance there will be fewer touchdowns to distribute as well. Only one quarterback in NFL history has thrown for 40-plus touchdowns in back-to-back seasons: Drew Brees in 2011 and 2012, per Pro Football Reference's database. Luck will look to become the second, but history is not on his side.

If Hilton were being drafted as a mid-pack WR2, he wouldn't be labeled a risk. But considering he will need to have another career year to just meet—let alone exceed—his current ADP, there's cause for concern.

Latavius Murray, Running Back, Oakland Raiders

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Similar to Joseph Randle, Latavius Murray is risky because we don’t know all that much about him. His Week 12 outburst in which he gained 112 yards and scored two touchdowns on just four carries last season rightfully turned heads, but outside of that performance, Murray was subpar.

That game earned Murray an increased role in Oakland’s offense. Over the first 12 games of last season, Murray carried the ball only 14 times and averaged 11.9 YPC. During the final four games, Murray carried the ball 68 times but averaged just 3.8 YPC.

That statistic highlights why small sample sizes can be deceiving. This categorical fact is exactly why Murray is a risky pick.

The Oakland Raiders also added Roy Helu this offseason, who will, at the very least, steal targets away from Murray. That’s the best-case scenario. On the other end of the spectrum, Murray and Helu could share the backfield, or Helu could win the job outright if Murray doesn’t live up to expectations during the first few weeks.

There’s no denying Murray’s potential. There’s also no denying the risk.

Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Detroit Lions

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Stafford is a risk because a perception exists out there that he is a stat-machine, but that isn't the truth. His fantasy value hasn’t stabilized after peaking in 2011, when Stafford tossed 41 touchdowns and broke the 5,000-yard mark. 

To be sure, Stafford is still capable of putting up big numbers; he's just much less consistent than people think. Stafford is wont to blow up one week but disappear the next. Anyone who has owned Stafford at any point over the past three seasons can attest to this, and inconsistency is one of the most maddening things in fantasy.

In 2014, Stafford had twice as many games with zero touchdowns (four) as he did with three (two). He also threw for only one touchdown in another four games, meaning that in exactly half of his outings last year, Stafford underperformed in the touchdown department.

This inconsistency wasn't just a one-year problem, either. In 2013, Stafford threw for either one or zero touchdowns in seven of 16 games. In 2012, he had 11 such games. Stafford's recent seasons look decent on the surface, but when you look under the hood, a different picture materializes.

Stafford, then, should be considered a risk because he's currently being drafted as a QB1. If the past three seasons are any indication, this is a bad move because he's going to be a weak spot in your roster more often than not.

Stafford's ceiling (2011 season) is enticing, and it's why people think he's worth the risk, but there are other quarterbacks being drafted near Stafford—such as Miami's Ryan Tannehill—who are trending upward as Stafford slides down.

Perceptions can change. Remember when Stafford was considered an injury risk? Perhaps this is the year another Stafford narrative changes.