Will 2016 MLB Rookie Class Provide Encore to Electric 2015 Group?
This year's MLB rookie class may not feature an immediate superstar like Mike Trout or Jose Abreu in recent seasons, but in terms of depth, it's as good as any in recent memory.
All told, an impressive 25 position players and 17 pitchers in the rookie class have been good for at least 1.0 WAR so far this season, and that number figures to climb before the season is over.
The Rookie of the Year race is still very much up for grabs in both the American League and National League, as the final month of the season figures to be the deciding factor in who takes home the awards.
Shortstop Carlos Correa (HOU) looks like the favorite on the AL side of things, while Roberto Osuna (TOR), Nathan Karns (TB), Andrew Heaney (LAA) and Miguel Sano (MIN) are also in the mix.
The NL race is far more cluttered, as Kris Bryant (CHC) and Joc Pederson (LAD) looked like the favorites at the All-Star break.
However, they've both slowed after the break, opening the door for Matt Duffy (SF), Jung Ho Kang (PIT), Randal Grichuk (STL), Maikel Franco (PHI), Chris Heston (SF), Taylor Jungmann (MIL) and Noah Syndergaard (NYM)—all have a chance with a strong final month.
So that begs the question: Has the young player talent pool run dry as a result of such an influx of prospect talent, or can we expect an encore performance in 2016?
What follows is a ranking of the 10 prospects currently in position to make the biggest impact in 2016.
Players are ranked based on their expected 2016 performance. Current level of development relative to being big league ready and their path to a regular big league job in 2016 were the two biggest factors.
Also included is a full list of others who could join them in making this another deep rookie class, as well as one international prospect who should be remembered as part of the discussion as well.
Note: Players who have debuted already this season were not considered, but it's very possible some of them will end up maintaining their rookie eligibility and entering next season as part of the 2016 prospect class.
Others Who Could Make a Significant Impact in 2016
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Predicting who will make an impact as a rookie is always tough, as there will always be guys like Chris Heston who exceed expectations and come out of nowhere. With that in mind, take the following for what it is—a quick rundown of some other names worth knowing.
Position Players
- SS Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
- SS Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers
- SS Gavin Cecchini, New York Mets
- 2B Alen Hanson, Pittsburgh Pirates
- RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
- RF Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers
- C Tom Murphy, Colorado Rockies
- OF Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
- 3B Hector Olivera, Atlanta Braves
- 2B Jose Peraza, Los Angeles Dodgers
- SS Daniel Robertson, Tampa Bay Rays
- OF Domingo Santana, Milwaukee Brewers
- IF Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
- 1B Christian Walker, Baltimore Orioles
- OF Nick Williams, Philadelphia Phillies
- OF Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers
- SP Mark Appel, Houston Astros
- SP Aaron Blair, Arizona Diamondbacks
- RP Nick Burdi, Minnesota Twins
- RP Carl Edwards Jr., Chicago Cubs
- SP Marco Gonzales, St. Louis Cardinals
- SP Tyrell Jenkins, Atlanta Braves
- SP Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics
- SP Frankie Montas, Chicago White Sox
- SP Sean Newcomb, Los Angeles Angels
- SP Braden Shipley, Arizona Diamondbacks
- SP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
- SP Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
- SP Jake Thompson, Philadelphia Phillies
- SP Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
Don't Forget About Japanese Right-Hander Kenta Maeda
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International players have made a significant impact on rookie classes in recent years.
In 2012, Yoenis Cespedes (Cuba), Yu Darvish (Japan), Wei-Yin Chen (Japan) and Nori Aoki (Japan) all received votes for Rookie of the Year honors.
The following season, Yasiel Puig (Cuba) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (Korea) both factored into an exciting NL Rookie of the Year race that was eventually won by Miami Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez.
Then in 2014, we saw perhaps the best rookie performance of all time from an international signing when Jose Abreu (Cuba) ran away with AL Rookie of the Year honors. His biggest competition for the award was Masahiro Tanaka (Japan), before a UCL injury cut his season short.
Finally, it looks like Jung Ho Kang (Korea) will be in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year honors this season, as he's made the Pittsburgh Pirates look like geniuses for taking a chance on him.
The point being, the odds are relatively high that someone plucked from Cuba, Japan or Korea will wind up factoring into the Rookie of the Year race next season.
That someone may very well be Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda.
In eight seasons pitching for the Hiroshima Carp, Maeda has gone 91-66 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.051 WHIP and 1,185 strikeouts in 1,447.2 innings.
Here is what Ben Badler of Baseball America offered up as a scouting report on Maeda:
"Maeda is a slightly-built 6 feet, 160 pounds and throws around 87-93 mph with good sink and run, though he doesn't get great angle on his fastball. He's a good athlete, which helps him repeat his delivery and thrive when his command, which can be plus at times, is on point. Maeda doesn't have one knockout secondary pitch, but he has a solid-average slider and mixes in a curveball and a changeup as well.
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He profiles more as a No. 3-starter type than an ace like his fellow countryman Tanaka, but he could make a significant rookie impact nonetheless with his ability to step right into a big league rotation.
Maeda seriously considered making the jump to stateside last offseason, eventually opting to re-sign with the Carp, but he still appears to have his sights set on playing in MLB.
"I am thinking this [going to the majors] is close to becoming a reality. Hopefully I can go in the offseason next year," Maeda told the Japan Times after re-signing last winter.
10. CF Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians
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2015 Stats (High-A and Double-A)
108 G, 397 AB, .300/.398/.501, 24 2B, 16 HR, 62 RBI, 82 R, 39 SB
Player Outlook
Coming out of the University of San Francisco, Bradley Zimmer was pegged by some as the best college bat in the 2014 draft—a class that also included Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto and Trea Turner.
Expecting a Schwarber-esque impact right out of the box may be asking too much, but he has a chance to settle in as a legitimate impact player next season and should be the long-term answer in center field for the Cleveland Indians.
He already possesses a good mix of contact skills, on-base ability and speed, and his power should continue to develop as his 6'4" frame fills out.
He also has the glove to stick in center field, though he could eventually be pushed over to a corner spot if the team prefers Clint Frazier there, though he is at least a year behind Zimmer in terms of development.
At any rate, the Indians' recent trade of Michael Bourn to the Atlanta Braves has left a clear path to the starting center field job for 2016.
Utility man Abraham Almonte has been manning the position since Bourn was dealt, but a strong spring could be enough for Zimmer to break camp as the starting center fielder, leadoff hitter and a legitimate AL Rookie of the Year candidate next season.
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9. SS J.P. Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies
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2015 Stats (High-A and Double-A)
90 G, 360 AB, .281/.375/.406, 17 2B, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 55 R, 8 SB
Player Outlook
When the Philadelphia Phillies selected J.P. Crawford with the No. 16 pick in the 2013 draft, all signs pointed to him replacing Jimmy Rollins as the everyday shortstop once his contract was up following the 2015 season.
The trade of Rollins this past offseason changed whom he'll be replacing, as Freddy Galvis stepped into the starting job in place of Rollins.
All signs still point to Crawford stepping into a significant role in 2016.
"Crawford has an impressive all-around skill set and can impact the game on both sides of the ball," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch. "There is no question about his ability to stay at shortstop, as he is a smooth fielder with sure hands, a plus arm and good range. He is a disciplined hitter with good on-base skills and the speed to steal bases."
Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola have already broken through with strong rookie performances this season, and Crawford figures to join them as significant pieces of the rebuilding process in Philly.
8. 1B Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
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2015 Stats (Double-A)
116 G, 409 AB, .242/.379/.421, 31 2B, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 68 R, 4 SB
Player Outlook
Matt Olson is going to strike out a ton, he's going to walk a ton, and he's going to hit a lot of home runs.
That makes an Adam Dunn comparison awfully easy.
Dunn struggled to live up to his contract in the final years of his career, so it's easy to forget just how good he was in his prime. Olson is capable of making a similar impact once he arrives in Oakland.
The No. 47 pick in the 2012 draft out of high school, Olson shot up prospect rankings with a huge season at the High-A level in 2014. He posted a .947 OPS with 31 doubles, 37 home runs and 97 RBI.
His .262 average didn't exactly turn heads, but thanks to an 18.5 percent walk rate, he led all of minor league baseball with 117 walks on his way to a .404 on-base percentage.
Olson's average has slipped to .242 this season, but he's still posting a 17.8 percent walk rate and showing a good approach at the plate against higher-quality pitching.
The Oakland Athletics thrive on getting the most out of their cheap, controllable talent, and Olson could be just that next year.
Ike Davis, Mark Canha and Max Muncy have seen the bulk of the playing time at first base in Oakland this season, with the position contributing a combined .243/.315/.380 with 10 home runs and 53 RBI.
That's below-average production from a premium offensive position. Olson could give them a serious shot in the arm next season.
7. SP Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals
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2015 Stats (High-A and Double-A)
17 G, 15 GS, 4-6, 3.09 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, 31 BB, 109 K, 93.1 IP
Player Outlook
Things have not gone according to plan for the Washington Nationals this season, and they have some big decisions to face this coming offseason.
Starters Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, shortstop Ian Desmond and center fielder Denard Span are all set to reach free agency.
The biggest decision appears to be whether the team decides to shell out the money to re-sign Zimmermann, and young arms like Joe Ross and Lucas Giolito are replacement options should he walk.
Giolito has only made four starts at the Double-A level, posting a 4.18 ERA and 1.352 WHIP, so he still has some work to do in the minors. He's getting close, though, and in terms of overall ceiling, there may not be a better pitching prospect in baseball.
The big 6'6", 255-pound right-hander slipped to No. 16 overall in the 2012 draft because of a UCL sprain that eventually required Tommy John surgery. However, he's returned healthy and has elite stuff, with a fastball that touches triple digits, a plus-plus curveball and an improved changeup.
The Nationals have brought him along slowly as a result, and there's a good chance he'll open next season in the minors. However, the 21-year-old could force their hand with a strong start, and his impact will be significant once he arrives.
6. CF Travis Jankowski, San Diego Padres
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2015 Stats (Double-A and Triple-A)
97 G, 379 AB, .335/.413/.425, 17 2B, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 69 R, 32 SB
Player Outlook
Travis Jankowski helped lead Stony Brook to a surprise trip to the College World Series in 2012, hitting .414/.475/.620 during his junior season. In the process, he boosted his draft stock significantly, going to the San Diego Padres with the No. 44 overall pick.
He's responded well with the jump to the high minors this year, and he's actually been better since making the jump from Double-A to Triple-A. He has a .392/.464/.495 line in 24 games since joining Triple-A El Paso.
Jankowski began the season as the team's No. 29 prospect, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, but it's fair to say he's boosted his stock significantly with his play this season.
With Justin Upton headed for free agency and Wil Myers likely to slide over to a corner spot where he's better suited, center field looks to be wide open for the Padres heading into 2016.
Expect Jankowski to get a long look at filling that vacancy.
"He has good instincts in all phases of the game, enhancing his chances of becoming a regular in the big leagues," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch.
Contact and speed are his two best tools, and he's capable of getting on base and stealing 30-plus bases on top of posting a strong batting average.
A grand total of 10 different players have hit out of the leadoff spot for the Padres this year, and none of them really profiles as a prototypical leadoff hitter. He could finally bring some stability to that spot.
5. 1B Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2015 Stats (Double-A and Triple-A)
113 G, 432 AB, .308/.377/.433, 22 2B, 6 HR, 69 RBI, 55 R, 8 SB
Player Outlook
The first base position has been a revolving door for the Pittsburgh Pirates since Adam LaRoche held down the spot from 2007-09, and the team has not had an All-Star at the position since Jason Thompson in 1982.
That should soon change thanks to Josh Bell.
A legitimate top-10 talent in the 2011 draft, Bell slipped to the second round because of what appeared to be a rock-solid commitment to the University of Texas, but the Pirates lured him away with a $5 million signing bonus.
After making the move from corner outfield to first base last year, Bell now looks to have a clear path to the majors, and he could get the call as early as next season.
The sky is the limit as far as his offensive potential is concerned, and while it has not necessarily shown up in games just yet, there is tremendous power potential packed into his 6'2", 235-pound frame.
The 23-year-old Bell has shown plate discipline and contact skills beyond his years, with a 10.2 percent walk rate and just a 12 percent strikeout rate.
The Pirates will have Pedro Alvarez and Michael Morse both back next season, but neither guy will stand in the way of the switch-hitting Bell once he's deemed ready.
4. SP Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
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2015 Stats (Double-A and Triple-A)
23 GS, 11-5, 3.18 ERA, 1.111 WHIP, 36 BB, 143 K, 141.1 IP
Player Outlook
The Minnesota Twins boasted the worst starting rotation in the majors in 2013 (5.26 ERA) and 2014 (5.06 ERA), but the team appeared to have turned a corner this season and found itself in contention as a result.
While the Twins are technically still in the hunt for an AL wild-card spot, the wheels have fallen off for the rotation since the All-Star break, as it has again been one of the worst in the majors.
For a team that doesn't generally spend huge money in free agency, developing talent is incredibly important.
With that in mind, keep an eye on Jose Berrios.
The 21-year-old out of Puerto Rico has impressed at every level of the minors, going a combined 33-20 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.148 WHIP and 432 strikeouts in 415.1 innings.
He began the season ranked as the No. 36 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America, and he was bumped up to No. 19 in the midseason update.
With Mike Pelfrey headed for free agency in the offseason, there figures to be at least one open spot in the Twins rotation. Don't be surprised if it goes to Berrios—and sooner rather than later.
3. SP Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2015 Stats (Low-A, Double-A and Triple-A)
18 GS, 5-4, 2.22 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 34 BB, 113 K, 89.1 IP
Player Outlook
With a lanky 6'8" frame and a repertoire that includes a high-90s fastball and a solid curveball/changeup combination, Tyler Glasnow certainly looks the part of a future front-line starter alongside Gerrit Cole in the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation.
The Pirates have brought Glasnow along slowly since selecting him in the fifth round of the 2011 draft, but he has dominated every step of the way at 26-15 with a 2.01 ERA, 1.060 WHIP and 478 strikeouts in 363.1 innings of work.
He was promoted to Triple-A at the end of July, and he's posted a 1.29 ERA over his first four starts.
However, the ERA comes with a 1.619 WHIP and a 5.6 BB/9 rate, so he still has some work to do on his overall command.
Still, with A.J. Burnett and deadline pickup J.A. Happ both headed for free agency in the offseason, don't be surprised if Glasnow gets a serious look this coming spring at breaking camp in the big league rotation.
One way or another, he figures to debut in 2016, and his electric stuff should allow him to make a serious impact from the get-go.
2. SS Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
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2015 Stats (Double-A and Triple-A)
115 G, 448 AB, .317/.367/.451, 22 2B, 8 HR, 54 RBI, 67 R, 29 SB
Player Outlook
According to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, shortstop Ian Desmond turned down a seven-year, $107 million extension from the Washington Nationals prior to the 2014 season.
That seemed like reasonable money when he was a perennial 20/20 player, but with a .229/.278/.389 line and 1.2 WAR in his contract year this year, it now looks like a significant bullet dodged by the Nats.
Finding a franchise shortstop to lock down the position is not easy to do, but the Nationals seem to have done just that when they jumped in on a three-team trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres and walked away with 2014 first-round pick Trea Turner.
After a standout career at NC State, Turner was taken with the No. 13 pick in the 2014 draft. He has just 184 minor league games under his belt, but a .319/.382/.450 line has him knocking on the door for a potential September promotion.
"If you don’t trust yourself or have confidence in yourself, it’s going to be hard to succeed, especially at that level, so if that does happen, I gotta go up there and do whatever’s asked of me," Turner told Scott Allen of the Washington Post. "I’ll pinch run all day, I’ll play defense all day, it doesn’t matter to me. Whatever they need."
That may be all he's asked to do in 2015, but all signs point to him taking over as the everyday shortstop from the jump next season.
He's polished enough to be an immediate upgrade over what Desmond has produced this season, and he could be among the favorites for top rookie honors in the National League.
1. SS Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2015 Stats (Double-A and Triple-A)
109 G, 428 AB, .297/.347/.477, 31 2B, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 66 R, 4 SB
Player Outlook
The Dodgers took a patient approach with Joc Pederson last season, leaving him in the minors despite stellar numbers before promoting him in September and then handing him the starting job out of camp in the spring.
They've taken a similar approach with shortstop prospect Corey Seager so far this year, and all signs point to him taking over for Jimmy Rollins as the everyday shortstop next season.
Seager hit .349/.402/.602 with 50 doubles, 20 home runs and 97 RBI between High-A and Double-A in 2014, and he's continued to rake for Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2015.
"Seager has a smooth, balanced lefty swing as well as bat speed, strength and a mature all-fields approach. He can get a bit aggressive at times but has what it takes to hit for both average and power," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch.
Meanwhile, Rollins is hitting just .225/.279/.359 with a minus-0.3 WAR in what is his first and likely only season with the Dodgers.
Seager may not make much of an impact, if any, at the big league level this season. The shortstop job will be his to lose next spring, though, and he'll likely begin the 2016 season as the odds-on favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors.
2015 vs. 2016
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For comparison's sake, let's take a look at how this year's all-rookie team stacks up to what could be next year's all-rookie team.
| James McCann, DET | Catcher | Tom Murphy, COL |
| Ben Paulsen, COL | First Base | Josh Bell, PIT |
| Devon Travis, TOR | Second Base | Jose Peraza, LAD |
| Matt Duffy, SF | Third Base | Hector Olivera, ATL |
| Carlos Correa, HOU | Shortstop | Corey Seager, LAD |
| Randal Grichuk, STL | Outfield | Travis Jankowski, SD |
| Joc Pederson, LAD | Outfield | Bradley Zimmer, CLE |
| Billy Burns, OAK | Outfield | Domingo Santana, MIL |
| 3B Kris Bryant, CHC | Utility | SS Trea Turner, WAS |
| SS Jung Ho Kang, PIT | Utility | SS J.P. Crawford, PHI |
| Taylor Jungmann, MIL | Starting Pitcher | Tyler Glasnow, PIT |
| Noah Syndergaard, NYM | Starting Pitcher | Jose Berrios, MIN |
| Chris Heston, SF | Starting Pitcher | Lucas Giolito, WAS |
| Nate Karns, TB | Starting Pitcher | Robert Stephenson, CIN |
| Andrew Heaney, LAA | Starting Pitcher | Kenta Maeda, ??? |
| Roberto Osuna, TOR | Relief Pitcher | Carl Edwards Jr., CHC |
We've seen one of the deepest rookie classes of all time this season, led by some genuine superstar-caliber talent. That doesn't mean the pipeline has gone dry, though, as there looks to be another crop of terrific rookie talent on the way in 2016.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted, and accurate through Tuesday, Aug. 18.
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