UFC 329: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

The Mac is back. 

After five long years and a whole lot of talk, Conor McGregor is finally set to return to the UFC Octagon. The former two-division champion, far and away the biggest star in MMA history, will make his long-awaited comeback in the main event of UFC 329 this Saturday in Las Vegas. His opponent will be Hawaii's Max Holloway.

McGregor has beaten Holloway once before, but that was way back in 2013. Since then, both men have become UFC champions and produced some of the most iconic moments in the sport's history. McGregor has beaten Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Nate Diaz, Eddie Alvarez, and Donald Cerrone, to name a few. Holloway has been just as impressive since their first meeting, with two wins over Aldo, and recent defeats of other legends like Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Over a decade after their first fight, in a showdown that will define the future of several UFC divisions—and really the whole sport—they'll meet again. And that's not all that's on offer this Saturday in Vegas.

In the co-main event, England's Paddy Pimblett will look to rebound from a loss to Gaethje and reassert himself as a serious lightweight contender against France's Benoit Saint-Denis, a proven finisher on the feet and on the ground. We'll also see Cory Sandhagen attempt a second victory over Mario Bautista at bantamweight, and Brandon Royval take on Lone'er Kavanagh in a clash of top-ranked flyweights. Before that, the main card will kick off with a grudge match between lightweight veteran Bobby Green and arguably the most unpredictable fighter in the division, Terrence McKinney. 

Here's how the B/R squad sees it all going.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway II

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: It's always hard to predict how a returning fighter will perform.

McGregor's return comes after a tumultuous five-year spell outside the Octagon, marked by multiple controversies.

In my mind, there aren't many worse fights McGregor could take after such a long break. Max Holloway, the relentless volume puncher who has stood and banged with the best during McGregor's absence, will be as motivated as he's ever been to win this one.

Holloway's loss to the Irishman in 2013 still follows him everywhere, so levelling the score might even be a fitting way to start thinking about the end.

McGregor had no gas tank five years ago. That won't have improved. He was overconfident and left himself vulnerable during both losses to Dustin Poirier, the second of which ended in a horrific leg break. That's not going to make it easier either.

I think we'll see McGregor land a nice shot in the opening exchanges, then get hurt, clam up, and struggle for dear life before Holloway finishes him in the second.

Prediction: Holloway via TKO, Rd. 2.

Tom Taylor: I agree with Nick. It's hard to imagine a worse matchup for a returning McGregor than Holloway.

While the Irishman has been away, the Hawaiian has been consistently active against some of the best fighters in the world, and in the same timeframe, has reaffirmed himself as one of the sport's best volume punchers.

Even after all these years away, McGregor's one-punch knockout power gives him a shot at victory, but if he can't make something happen in the first round or two, Holloway is going to drown him.

That's how I, like many people, see this one going. McGregor will come out hot, land a few big shots, and give his remaining believers a couple of minutes of hope. Then, he'll start to fade, like he often does. When that happens, Holloway will start pouring on the offense, punishing the Irish star's body and head in tandem. A younger, hungrier fighter might be able to withstand the onslaught, but not a 37-year-old multimillionaire with a long career behind him.

Eventually, Holloway's punishment will prove too much. 

Prediction: Holloway by TKO, Rd. 3

Adam Kramer: For all the hoopla and hype, the reality of this fight comes down to one simple factor.

McGregor has not fought in more than 1,800 days. And he spent a good chunk of those 1,800 recovering from a serious injury that many assumed would end his career.

It didn't, and thank goodness for that. But that doesn't make the assignment any easier. And if we're being completely honest, he wasn't exactly in form five years ago, either. He has since gotten older, slower, and his life has grown more complicated.

Holloway, meanwhile, has fought some of the best fighters in the world, and he's largely delivered. He is a sizable favorite in the eyes of the sportsbook, and it's not hard to see why.

As for fight flow, this will be one for the fans. These two likely won't wait to exchange blows, and the action early on will be fierce. But how long will it last?

Maybe McGregor captures some early magic and catches Holloway, but I just don't see it. Holloway will be violent and tactical, and ultimately, the barrage of output will prove to be too much.

Prediction: Holloway via TKO, Rd. 2

Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: Paddy Pimblett is officially entering the danger zone with this one. This is a nasty matchup, especially after his first UFC loss to Justin Gaethje, because Benoît Saint Denis is exactly the type of fighter who can exploit Pimblett's shortcomings.

The Scouser's lack of defence in striking exchanges saw him pulverised last time out. Saint-Denis isn't that brutal, but he's more than capable of doing serious damage to the British fighter, whose durability could be tested again. I think the Frenchman comes out on top in a dogfight.

Prediction: Saint Denis by unanimous decision.

Tom Taylor: This is arguably the hardest fight on the whole UFC 329 bill to call. Saint-Denis and Pimblett are both extremely dangerous on the ground, and they've both got some decent striking to fall back on.

That said, I've got to lean Saint-Denis' way on this one. The Frenchman has a higher takedown success rate, a higher takedown defense rate, and attempts more submissions on the ground (per UFCStats.com).

Pair that with his clear power advantage on the feet, and it's really hard not to give him the edge.

I can see Pimblett having some success on the ground—Renato Moicano proved it's doable—but I still think he'll come up short, especially in a three-rounder.

Prediction: Saint Denis by unanimous decision

Adam Kramer: The last time we saw Paddy the Baddy, his face and body were utterly destroyed. Fighting Justin Gaethje will do that to you.

Before that, however, Pimblett was on a roll, showcasing an evolved skill set that seemed to translate in his fights. The reality, however, is that those wins came against opponents that he should have beaten. Michael Chandler, his most notable victory, hasn't won a fight since May of 2022.

And while Pimblett is extremely dangerous on the ground and capable on his feet, this feels like a matchup problem in the making.

His opponent, meanwhile, has made quick work of Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush, and Mauricio Ruffy over his last three fights. One could argue that few fighters have been more violent or dominant in this stretch than Benoit-Saint Denis.

Like Pimblett, Saint-Denis can fight anywhere. Only it just feels like his movements will be sharper and carry more weight. If Saint-Denis' conditioning is there, he could end this one early.

Prediction: Saint-Denis via TKO, Rd. 3

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista II

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: I'm a big fan of this matchup. Cory Sandhagen finished Mario Bautista with an armbar in 2019, but, like our main event, a lot has changed since then.

Both guys are strong across the board, so I'm going to lean towards Bautista, who will be desperate to get one back over the man who handed him his first professional loss. And what a statement it would be.

Prediction: Bautista by split decision

Tom Taylor: Bautista has gotten a lot better since he lost to Sandhagen in 2019, but I don't think he'll have much more success in their rematch.

Sandhagen has only lost to the best bantamweights in recent years—we're talking about guys like Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan—and I just don't think Bautista is on that level.

His wrestling might give him some success, but Sandhagen's significantly better striking and underrated grappling defense will be too much.

Prediction: Sandhagen by unanimous decision

Adam Kramer: Tactically speaking, this is a fascinating rematch. Yes, these two fought in 2019, although both of their games have evolved greatly since then.

For me, it boils down to competition. Sandhagen has fought a slew of tremendous fighters with some unique traits. And the fact that his two recent losses came to Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov speaks volumes.

Sandhagen will ultimately try to wrestle and grapple, and he should find success in that department, albeit against an incredibly gifted fighter.  Sandhagen controls the pace from the start, and the judges ultimately call his name.

Prediction: Sandhagen by unanimous decision

Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: This is a huge night for Lone'er Kavanagh, who is bound to be discovered by many English fans who are tuning in for McGregor and Pimblett. Casual watchers will be locked into this event, especially since England's 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal against Norway is scheduled to finish near the main card's start time.

That brings real pressure for the 10-1 Kavanagh. He had ice in his veins when he beat Brandon Moreno in Mexico, and should see this fight as a winnable reward for such a display on three weeks' notice. Brandon Royval is experienced and no pushover, but I expect Kavanagh's speed and output to beat him up.

Prediction: Kavanagh via unanimous decision.

Tom Taylor: I completely agree with Nick on this one. Lone'er Kavanagh proved himself as a serious contender when he styled on Brandon Moreno, one of the slickest fighters in the division. Moreno, of course, is a guy whom Royval narrowly defeated last time they met. Pair that with Royval's recent losses to Manel Kape and Joshua Van, and there's reason to believe he's on the decline. That's a bad time to be fighting a rising contender like Kavanagh.

The Englishman's slickness and speed are going to be way too much.

Prediction: Kavanagh via unanimous decision.

Adam Kramer: Don't be shocked if this turns out to be the best fight of the evening.

We've seen Royval in this position before, playing spoiler, and that's precisely what he'll try to do as an underdog going up against a fighter with a 10-1 record.

Kavanagh has been sensational, and his most recent win over Brandon Moreno felt like a sign of things to come. Going up against Royval, however, will be a much different assignment, even if Royval has dropped his last few fights.

Royval's diverse bag of trips will loom large here. Expect an incredible scrap with a mix of wild, violent exchanges. In a sizable upset, Royval comes away as the winner.

Prediction: Royval by split decision

King Green vs. Terrence McKinney

Nick Akerman: I'm really impressed by King Green's resurgence. Three consecutive wins since December, the last of which came via rear-naked choke against Jeremy Stephens in May, is a hell of a turnaround after he was humbled by Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy.

As the Irish fans might say: "This one's a banger." Green's chances improve exponentially the longer the fight goes on, but he needs to weather a firecracker of destruction in Terrance McKinney, whose last seven fights haven't escaped the first round. He's only ever won one that has, all the way back in 2018.

Green will get hurt, but he will also grind out another win.

Prediction: Green via TKO, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: Nearly every Terrence McKinney fight is a coin flip. He has incredible finishing ability on the feet and on the mat, but is also very easy to finish in both areas.

I would give a lot of veterans a good chance of beating McKinney. Unfortunately, I don't have much faith in Green's durability at this point, despite how impressive he's looked in his last few fights.

He can definitely take control of this fight if it goes past the first round, but I don't see him surviving the first few exchanges.

Prediction: McKinney by KO, Rd. 1

Adam Kramer: The oddsmakers see this one as essentially a toss-up. While plenty of bets will go on fighters, the odds against this fight going the distance are absolutely enormous. Of the combined last 10 fights these two were involved in, only one went to the judges.

King Green's game has evolved of late, although let's not overthink this. He wants to box, and he'll find success. As long as he can keep McKinney on his back foot—working in jabs and being on the offensive—King seems poised for another early finish.

But don't blink on this one. If you do, the fight might be over.

Prediction: King via TKO Rd. 1