UFC 329: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

The Mac is back. 

After five long years, and a whole lot of talk, Conor McGregor is finally set to return to the UFC Octagon. The former two-division champion, far and away the biggest star in MMA history, will make his long awaited comeback in the main event of UFC 329 this Saturday in Las Vegas. His opponent will be Hawaii's Max Holloway.

McGregor has beaten Holloway once before, but that was way back in 2013. Since then, both men have become UFC champions, and produced some of the most iconic moments in the sport's history. McGregor has beaten Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Nate Diaz, Eddie Alvarez, and Donald Cerrone, to name a few. Holloway has been just as impressive since their first meeting, with two wins over Aldo, and recent defeats of other legends like Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Over a decade after their first fight, in a showdown that will define the future of several UFC divisions—and really the whole sport—they'll meet again. And that's not all that's on offer this Saturday in Vegas.

In the co-main event, England's Paddy Pimblett will look to rebound from a loss to Gaethje and reassert himself as a serious lightweight contender opposite France's Benoit Saint-Denis, who is a proven finisher on the feet and on the ground. We'll also see Cory Sandhagen attempt a second victory over Mario Bautista at bantamweight, and Brandon Royval take on Lone'er Kavanagh in a clash of top-ranked flyweights. Before that, the main card will kick off with a grudge match between lightweight veteran Bobby Green, and arguably the most unpredictable fighter in the division, Terrence McKinney. 

Here's how the B/R squad sees it all going.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway II

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: It's always hard to predict how a returning fighter will perform.

McGregor's return comes after a tumultuous five-year spell outside the Octagon, marked by multiple controversies away from the cage.

In my mind, there's not many worse fights McGregor could take after such a long break. Max Holloway, the relentless volume puncher who has stood and banged with the best in the time McGregor has been away, will be as motivated as he's ever been to win this one.

Holloway's loss to the Irishman in 2013 still follows him everywhere, so levelling the score might even be a fitting way to start thinking about the end.

McGregor had no gas tank five years ago. That won't have improved. He was overconfident and left himself vulnerable during both losses to Dustin Poirier, the second of which ended in a horrific leg break. That's also not going to make it easier.

I think we'll see McGregor land a nice shot in the opening exchanges, then get hurt, clam up, and struggle for dear life before Holloway finishes him in the second.

Prediction: Holloway via TKO, Rd. 2.

Tom Taylor: I agree with Nick. It's hard to imagine a worse matchup for a returning McGregor than Holloway.

While the Irishman has been away, the Hawaiian has been consistently active against some of the best fighters in the world, and in the same timeframe, has reaffirmed himself as one of the sport's best volume punchers.

Even after all these years away, McGregor's one-punch knockout power gives him a shot at victory, but if he can't make something happen in the first round or two, Holloway is going to drown him.

That's how I, like many people, see this one going. McGregor will come out hot, land a few big shots, and give his remaining believers a couple of minutes of hope. Then, he'll start to fade, like he often does. When that happens, Holloway is going to start pouring on the offense, punishing the Irish star's body and head in tandem. A younger, hungrier fighter might be able to withstand the onslaught, but not a 37-year-old multimillionaire with a long career behind him.

Eventually, Holloway's punishment will prove too much. 

Prediction: Holloway by TKO, Rd. 3

Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: Paddy Pimblett is officially entering the danger zone with this one. This is a nasty matchup, especially after his first UFC loss against Justin Gaethje, because Benoît Saint Denis is exactly the type of fighter who can take advantage of Pimblett's shortcomings.

The Scouser's lack of defence in striking exchanges saw him pulverised last time out. Saint Denis isn't that brutal, but he's more than capable of doing serious damage to the British fighter, whose durability could face another testing night. I think the Frenchman comes out on top in a dogfight.

Prediction: Saint Denis by unanimous decision.

Tom Taylor: This is arguably the hardest fight on the whole UFC 329 bill to call. Saint Denis and Pimblett are both extremely dangerous on the ground, and they've both got some decent striking to fall back on.

That said, I've got to lean Saint Denis' way on this one. The Frenchman has a better takedown success rate, a better takedown defense rate, and also attempts more submissions on the ground (per UFCStats.com).

Pair that with his clear power advantage over on the feet, and it's really hard not to give him the edge.

I can see Pimblett having some success on the ground—Renato Moicano proved it's doable—but I still think he'll come up short, especially in a three-rounder.

Prediction: Saint Denis by unanimous decision

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista II

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: I'm a big fan of this matchup. Cory Sandhagen finished Mario Bautista by armbar in 2019, but like our main event, a lot has changed since then.

Both guys are strong across the board, so I'm going to lean towards Bautista, who will be desperate to get one back over the man who handed him his first professional loss. And what a statement it would be.

Prediction: Bautista by split decision

Tom Taylor: Bautista has gotten a lot better since he lost to Sandhagen in 2019, but I don't think he'll have much more success in their rematch.

Sandhagen has only lost to the best bantamweights in the world in recent years—we're talking about guys like Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan—and I just don't think Bautista is on that level.

His wrestling might give him a bit of success, but Sandhagen's significantly better striking and underrated grappling defense will be too much.

Prediction: Sandhagen by unanimous decision

Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Nick Akerman: This is a huge night for Lone'er Kavanagh, who is bound to be discovered by many English fans who are tuning in for McGregor and Pimblett. Casual watchers will be locked into this event, especially as England's 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal with Norway is due to finish near to the main card's start time.

That brings with it some real pressure for the 10-1 Kavanagh. He had ice in his veins when he beat Brandon Moreno in Mexico, and should see this fight as a winnable reward for such a display on three weeks' notice. Brandon Royval is experienced and no pushover, but I expect Kavanagh's speed and output to beat him up.

Prediction: Kavanagh via unanimous decision.

Tom Taylor: I completely agree with Nick on this one. Lone'er Kavanagh proved himself as a serious contender when he styled on Brandon Moreno—one of the slickest fighters in the division. Moreno, of course, is a guy who Royval narrowly defeated last time they met. Pair that with Royval's recent losses to Manel Kape and Joshua Van, and there's reason to believe he's on the decline. That's a bad time to be fighting a rising contender like Kavanagh.

The Englishman's slickness and speed are going to be way too much.

Prediction: Kavanagh via unanimous decision.

King Green vs. Terrence McKinney

Nick Akerman: I'm really impressed by King Green's resurgence. Three consecutive wins since December, the last of which came via rear-naked choke against Jeremy Stephens in May, is a hell of a turnaround after he was humbled by Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy.

As the Irish fans might say: "This one's a banger." Green's chances improve exponentially the longer the fight goes on, but he needs to weather a firecracker of destruction in Terrance McKinney, whose last seven fights haven't escaped the first round. He's only ever won one that has, all the way back in 2018.

Green will get hurt, but he will also grind out another win.

Prediction: Green via TKO, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: Nearly every Terrence McKinney fight is a coin-flip. He has incredible finishing ability on the feet and on the mat, but is also very easy to finish in both areas.

I would give a lot of veterans a good chance of beating McKinney. Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of faith in Green's durability at this point—as impressive as he's looked in his last few fights.

He can definitely take control of this fight if it goes past the first round, but I don't see him surviving the first few exchanges.

Prediction: McKinney by KO, Rd. 1