New 2026 MLB Trade Deadline Predictions
There comes a point when the MLB trade deadline no longer feels far away. With the 2026 season now about one-third over, that point might as well be now.
Want predictions? Well, we've got predictions.
There are hundreds of different possibilities at play ahead of this year's August 3 deadline, but the idea here was to really focus the microscope on eight outcomes: four that won't happen, and four that will.
Let there be no confusion as to what went into these predictions. Various tea leaves helped with some readings, but this was mostly a gut-feeling exercise. Nobody is contractually obligated to abide by any of these.
With that said, let's start in New York.
The New York Mets Will Resist Selling Entirely
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Why It Won't Happen
For most of their existence, all the New York Mets have really been good for is a bit of schadenfreude. And so it definitely goes this year, as all their roughly $500 million payroll has bought them is another "LOL Mets" season.
And yet:
Well, darn it if that doesn't look like a team on an upswing. And there may well be lasting power here, as the Mets are one of few teams that can only get healthier as the year moves along.
What Will This Cost the Market?
This is the other big reason why the Mets should be counted on not to sell. Because when it comes down to it, what would they even have to offer?
There is Freddy Peralta, who has mostly kept his stock high ahead of a date with the free-agent market. But the Mets are otherwise short on attractive rentals, especially with Bo Bichette not exactly trending toward using the opt-out in his deal.
Meanwhile, more controllable players don't have a ton of trade value to cash in right now. That mainly means Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, and there might not be takers for Kodai Senga even if Steve Cohen literally ate the remainder of his $75 million contract.
There Won't Even Be Any Mike Trout Rumors
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Why It Won't Happen
Believe us, we wish there would be. Trout deserves better than to languish in Anaheim, where the Los Angeles Angels have been going nowhere fast for over a decade. Nobody wants to see him retire having played in only three playoff games.
Still, we'll defer to Jon Heyman of the New York Post on this one. As part of a recent B/R live stream, he said there's only a five percent chance of Trout getting traded.
That tracks, and not just because both Trout himself and Angels owner Arte Moreno seem to have some kind of sacred pact to remain together in Anaheim. The three-time AL MVP still has four years left on a $426.5 million contract, which notably features a no-trade clause.
What Will This Cost the Market?
If it does become apparent that Trout is going nowhere, the summer trade market will basically be missing out on a lottery ticket.
Because Trout is 34 years old and prone to both injuries and strikeouts, he would be a volatile asset even if he wasn't also pulling in $37 million per year. Even amid his return to form this year, he's been more good than great outside of that one series in New York.
Even so, we're talking about a guy who still has elite power and is apparently still playable in center field. It's rarely a bad thing to have one of those on your side for a playoff run.
The Minnesota Twins Will Stop Short of Trading Byron Buxton
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Why It Won't Happen
Remember when the Minnesota Twins were 11-7? Well, they're 12-20 ever since then. The arrow is pointed at a second straight deadline sell-off, with such prizes to be won as Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Ryan Jeffers.
There's also maybe Byron Buxton as well, but that "maybe" is doing the kind of heavy lifting that is liable to hurt the spine.
His name does pop up in the occasional trade rumor, and he didn't sound as loyal to the Twins in February as he had been last August. And because of the no-trade clause in his seven-year, $100 million contract, he does ultimately control his own fate.
Still, the guess here is that the Twins wouldn't move Buxton for less than a king's ransom. And because of Buxton's own Trout-like volatility as an aging, injury-prone player with a propensity for whiffs, it figures to be hard to find one.
What Will This Cost the Market?
Even if Buxton is Trout-like in some respects, he's still the younger, cheaper version of Trout in the scheme of things.
The power, speed and ability to play center field are there. And whereas Trout is 34 and making close to $40 million, Buxton is 32 and making $15 million. Those are two very different numbers.
There's even a case that the Twins rebuffing suitors or driving too hard a bargain on Buxton would deprive the market of its best possible position player…but we can get deeper into that discussion in just a minute.
Yordan Alvarez Won't Be Going Anywhere
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Why It Won't Happen
Even relative to the mediocrity that has engulfed the American League, the Houston Astros are bad. They're 11 games under .500 and have been outscored by 56 runs.
Between that and the sheer number of pitching injuries they have sustained, it's about time to abandon all hope and enter into sell mode. Christian Walker can go. And maybe Josh Hader if he's healthy come late July.
As for a Yordan Alvarez trade, well, that's the nuclear option. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the return for Houston might have to be nothing less than a Juan Soto package.
But that's also the catch. The package that sent Soto from Washington to San Diego in 2022 was an all-timer. And even if he's just as good a hitter, Alvarez is A) older, B) more injury-prone and C) not actually cheaper than Soto was then.
What Will This Cost the Market?
OK, enough poo-pooing of Alvarez. Because the stone-cold truth of the matter is that he might be the best pure hitter in MLB when he's right.
He's batting .301/.399/.574 over the last five seasons, which only looks unimpressive compared to Aaron Judge. And between the two of them, Alvarez at least has bragging rights as being the harder hitter to strike out.
Should we also mention that Alvarez is also a World Series champion with a career .944 OPS in October? Yeah, probably.
Luis Arraez Will Be the Best Giant Traded
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Why It Will Happen
The San Francisco Giants are ostensibly contenders, but come on. Their 20-30 record and -52 run differential barely make them look better than the Colorado Rockies.
A report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today earlier this month claimed that the Giants would "love to unload" some of their big contracts, but don't count on that. Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee might only be salary-dump candidates, while Rafael Devers might be downright impossible to trade.
Luis Arraez? He's a different story.
He's only on a one-year, $12 million contract, and he's back to batting .319 after a weird down year in 2025. And for once, his bat isn't the only thing that could elevate a contender. He's really turned a corner defensively this year, too.
Where He Could Go
The Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds, New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates could use a bat-to-ball hitter of Arraez's caliber. Each is among the 10 most strikeout-prone teams in MLB, whereas Arraez has fanned seven times in 200 plate appearances.
Contenders who are deficient at second base include the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays. There's also the San Diego Padres. Their decision to move Fernando Tatis Jr. to second base has cleared playing time for Nick Castellanos in right field, but his bat (.194 AVG, .560 OPS) should have his job on borrowed time.
Prediction: Traded to Padres
Sandy Alcantara Will Finally Get Traded
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Why It Will Happen
This one is…kind of a no-brainer? Sandy Alcantara is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and he and the Miami Marlins are in very different places.
After a couple years lost in a post-Tommy John wilderness, Alcantara is back to being a frequently dominant workhorse. He's made 10 starts and has a 3.53 ERA and 63.2 innings to show for them. Not quite Cy Young-caliber stuff, but good enough to be a No. 1 or No. 2 on a lot of staffs.
The Marlins aren't that bad, but their 22-28 record is about what anyone could have expected at this point in the season. And with the Mets making their move, a last-place finish in the NL East might be Miami's most likely outcome.
The Marlins aren't hurting for prospects, as B/R's Joel Reuter ranked their farm system No. 8 in MLB back in April. However, their competition in the NL East gives them no choice but to try to build a super-team from within.
Where He Could Go
Sheesh. How much time do you have? Because if it's a question of which contenders need an above-average workhorse, the answer is usually "all of them."
That said, the Padres and Chicago Cubs are succeeding in spite of threadbare rotations so far. And even though they've fallen behind in the AL East, the Blue Jays can rightfully see a big rotation addition as their potential salvation.
Prediction: Traded to Cubs
Ketel Marte Will Be the Best Hitter Traded
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Why It Will Happen
Heck, yeah. Let's get weird…er, bold.
Though they ultimately pulled him off the market, the Arizona Diamondbacks did kind of make a show of fielding offers for Ketel Marte over the winter. He has since earned 10-and-5 rights that allow him to block any trade, so the only way he's going anywhere this summer is if both he and the team want it.
For the team's part, the D-backs are stuck in the same mediocrity loop that swallowed them up after the 2023 World Series. And while Marte sure seems ticketed for a rebound from a slow start, the three-time All-Star is getting neither younger nor cheaper. He's 32 and owed $76 million between 2027 and 2030.
For his part, a trade out of Arizona might be Marte's best bet to chase after the ring that eluded him in 2023. And besides, there's been some tension between him and his D-backs teammates in the past.
Where He Could Go
As he's also a second baseman, Marte could have a market similar to that of Arraez. Except with Marte, the power will be the main appeal.
He should be on the Blue Jays' radar, as they need more pop arguably just as much as they need starting pitching. He should also appeal to the Boston Red Sox, especially if Marcelo Mayer's future is back at shortstop. Both clubs were linked to Marte over the winter.
Prediction: Traded to Blue Jays
Fine, We'll Bite on a Tarik Skubal Trade
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Why It Will Happen
Rest assured, the Detroit Tigers are only going to go this route if everything falls apart for them between now and August 3. And if Tarik Skubal is even healthy, of course.
That second part is where good news has come much quicker than expected after Skubal had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow two weeks ago. The two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner has already thrown two bullpen sessions.
The signs point toward the Tigers getting Skubal back well before the deadline, in which case they'll be able to hope for a friendlier tide. They're 20-30 so far but, you know, with their ace back…what could stop them?
Well, how about the rest of the team? Among AL clubs, their -21 run differential says they're more like a bottom-five team than a top-five team. And with a 4-14 record in May, they've dug themselves quite a hole amid Skubal's absence.
Where He Could Go
Skubal is, of course, a pending free agent after 2026. If he is going to get traded, it figures that only legitimate World Series contenders are going to risk it.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees both come to mind, as do the Atlanta Braves. But the Yankees reportedly didn't have the right chips to make a deal during the offseason, and Atlanta's farm system isn't especially strong either.
Just sayin': When Reuter ranked the farm systems in April, he had the Dodgers at No. 3.
Prediction: Traded to Dodgers
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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