Predicting the Next Wave of NBA Stars to Request a Trade
Nothing jars the NBA trade market quite like a star player demanding a relocation.
And nothing keeps the speculation industry alive more than the knowledge that a landscape-shifting request is always a matter of when, not if.
Hoop heads know that a top-tier talent will tire of their situation and seek out greener pastures soon. They just don't necessarily know where that request will come from.
Maybe we do, though. Because with the right amount of tea-leaves reading, you can at least identify which situations seem uncomfortable enough—at least from the outside—to convince a star player that it has past the point of being tenable.
Some cases might be clearer than others, but it doesn't require too much imagination to picture any of these five stars to be the next to demand their ticket out of town.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
1 of 5
Is this considered cheating? You know, since Antetokounmpo has maybe, possibly requested a move already? Maybe, but if he has demanded a trade, he hasn't gone public with that push. Nor has he seemed particularly comfortable with the prospect of doing so.
"There will never be a moment that I will come out and say, 'I want a trade,'" Antetokounmpo told The Athletic's Sam Amick in January. "That's not ... in ... my ... nature. OK?"
You know what else shouldn't be in his nature? Spending the remainder of his prime—which feels more finite than ever after such an injury-impacted season—on a clear non-contender. When he played, he was awesome: 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists. Milwaukee was still a mess, going 17-19 with him in the lineup.
What could possibly convince him that things will get better from here? Ryan Rollins' breakout? That didn't impact this season. The incoming lottery pick? Without a jackpot prize, Milwaukee probably won't be in position to land a difference-maker. Myles Turner being generally better than he was this past season? He definitely disappointed, but he's a 30-year-old with zero All-Star selections on his resume, so he's never really been a needle-mover.
This relationship just no longer suits either side. Antetokounmpo needs roster support the Bucks can't provide. Milwaukee, in turn, needs the kind of roster-building assets that only a break from Antetokounmpo would provide. It doesn't make sense to move forward together, and at some point (presumably sooner than later), even Antetokounmpo will have to admit that.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
2 of 5
The Magic have had four seasons now to figure out whether the Banchero-Franz Wagner combo can work together. The jury is either still out, or it has already returned an unfavorable verdict. Orlando has, to this point at least, peaked at pretty good: consistently posting win totals in the 40s and then getting knocked out in the opening round.
Banchero isn't waving the white flag just yet, but he's clearly uninterested in continuing this Groundhog Day existence. When pressed whether the Magic were built to win big after they blew a 3-1 lead against the Detroit Pistons, he signaled exactly zero hope.
"I want to say yes, but this is the third straight time we haven't gotten out of the first round," Banchero told reporters. "So, if you are going off the last three years, the answer is no. ... Honestly speaking, I can't say we're good enough to be in the FInals or the Eastern finals because the last three years, we've had the same result. So, that's your answer."
That is rough. Especially when the Magic bet big on a breakout by brokering a blockbuster deal for Desmond Bane last summer. They placed pretty close to an all-in wager (four first-round picks and a first-round swap) and still suffered another first-round flop. It already cost Jamahl Mosley his coaching job (which maybe helps their chances of pacifying Banchero?), but it's fair to wonder whether the fall-out stops there.
This isn't a great offensive environment for everyone, but it might be worst for Banchero. He needs better playmakers to initiate more chances for him, better shooters to give him more room to operate and better finishers to up the potency of his passing. It's hard to say when, if or how the Magic can find those helpers, so it wouldn't be shocking if he just looks elsewhere for the assistance.
Anthony Davis, Washington Wizards
3 of 5
Wait, could Davis' entire tenure in Washington wind up being just a few months and zero on-court appearances? Uh...yeah, absolutely. Trade winds are already swirling, and he hardly sounds like someone interested in being part of a slow-and-steay rise to relevance.
"They know that I want to win," Davis told reporters in April. "I'm sure that they want to win as well. Nobody wants to lose. ... But I also understand I've been in this league a long time. I've been on losing teams, and it's very hard to be a losing team and then a championship contender."
The Wizards aren't merely a "losing team," by the way. They are, objectively speaking, the league's biggest losers for three years running. They've dropped 196 defeats over the past three seasons; no one else has 180 losses over this stretch and only four other teams have even cracked 150.
Having a healthy Davis, Trae Young and another lottery pick should help, but is that really all that's needed to transform Washington from a 65-loss debacle into a contending-caliber club? Excuse us for feeling real eyebrow-raising skepticism here, but the most polite response possible would be an "I'll believe it when I see it."
Does Davis, who is 33 years old and forever fighting the injury bug, want to stake the remainder of his prime on that far-fetched hope of contending? It definitely doesn't sound like it.
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Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets
4 of 5
This feels like another cheat-adjacent pick. Given how icky the vibes felt during Durant's first season in Space City, it's fair to wonder whether Houston might be the one that seeks out a split.
So, maybe this becomes more of a "You can't fire me, I quit!" situation than a totally self-generated demand, but it'd be a star trade request nonetheless. Because for everything that ran awry in Houston, Durant still hooped: 26 points per game on 52/41.3/87.4 shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.7 stocks (steals plus blocks).
While some suitors might avoid the risk of bringing him onboard and rocking their chemistry boat, he shouldn't have trouble sniffing out a landing spot. Not when he's still supplying elite production and plays such an easy style to fit with others.
NBA teams are forever on the hunt for big wings who contribute on both ends. Durant is one of the best to ever wear the label, and it still fits him like a tailored suit. He can, without question, impact next season's championship chase. He could also reasonably conclude that would only happen with a move away from the Rockets.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
5 of 5
Credit the Cavaliers for one thing: If they can't convince Mitchell to stick around, it won't be due to a lack of effort on their part. They've pumped resource after resource into correcting their wing shortage, and they threw caution to the wind with their deadline deal for James Harden.
It still might not be enough. Nothing from Cleveland's playoff showing so far suggests its long-awaited postseason breakthrough is happening. And if it doesn't, Mitchell might have serious questions about whether this club is capable of pushing him to the kind of postseason success that has eluded him thus far.
"If the Cavaliers again exit in the first or second round—as Mitchell has in each of his first eight seasons—will he be willing to commit to another extension in Cleveland? That seems unlikely," ESPN's Tim Bontemps relayed in January.
Mitchell might have a lot of the same questions about his fit with Harden as he did with Darius Garland. Or he could be worried about the redundancies with the Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen frontcourt. Or maybe he's unconvinced that even with all of the activity Cleveland has solved its problems on the wing.
Mitchell, who has never pushed past the conference semis, could be left wondering whether he needs a move out of Northeast Ohio to pave a championship path. And if he does, the time to make that leverage play is right now, since his current contract has just a single guaranteed season left.
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