10 MLB Overreactions Worth Taking Seriously
It's important to be measured during the first month of the regular season. It's a cliche, but the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint, so you can't have the same major takeaways on each game as you do in the NFL, for example.
With that said, with 20-ish games in the book for each team, there's enough of a body of work to begin to make some assessments, even with the acknowledgement that the overwhelming majority of the season is still to come.
Here's a look at 10 overreactions from the early weeks of the 2026 MLB season that might actually have some merit.
Jordan Walker Has Finally Figured Things Out at the Plate
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After the Cardinals traded away Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan in Chaim Bloom's first offseason as president of baseball operations, it was clear that 2026 was going to be a transition year for a franchise not accustomed to doing anything other than competing.
That's still likely true, although one of the reasons the RedBirds currently find themselves above .500 is that Jordan Walker has gotten off to a scalding-hot start.
Walker has been one of baseball's most frustrating players the last two seasons. After hitting 16 home runs and driving in 51 runs as a 21-year-old rookie in 117 games during the 2023 season, Walker posted an unsightly .595 OPS between the 2024 and 2025 campaigns.
With 2026 a make-or-break year for Walker in St. Louis, he's gotten out of the gates about as quickly as any hitter in baseball. At the time of publication, Walker already has eight home runs, and according to FanGraphs, he's among the top five position players in WAR.
There are still some shortcomings in Walker's game. He's striking out in 28.7 percent of at-bats this season. He actually has four defensive runs saved so far this season, although with minus-20 DRS in his career in right field, it's going to take a little larger body of work to think that Walker's long-term future is still in the outfield.
But where it felt like it was getting late for Walker in St. Louis heading into the season, his April resurgence makes you think that the 23-year-old could be a long-term cog as the Cardinals try to build their next great team.
Cam Schlittler Is Now One of the Game's Best Starting Pitchers
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If you thought Cam Schlittler might be a one-hit wonder after he burst onto the scene to strike out 12 Boston Red Sox across eight shutout innings in Game 3 of the ALWCS, his April output has squashed that idea.
In fact, Schlittler has been arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball through his first five starts of the season. Across 27.2 innings pitched, Schlittler has posted MLB-best marks in terms of FIP (0.88) and WAR (1.5), according to FanGraphs.
The 25-year-old's incredible start to the 2026 season should scare the rest of the league, because while he and Max Fried are already a strong one-two punch, imagine how good this rotation is going to be when both Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Carlos Rodón (bone spur removal surgery) rejoin Aaron Boone's club.
Pete Crow-Armstrong's offense is a problem
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So far this season, Pete Crow-Armstrong has just a 61 OPS+. 100 is the league average, so that gives you an indication of how much PCA has struggled at the plate to begin 2026.
It's a particularly concerning start for Crow-Armstrong when you consider that after he started in the All-Star Game last summer, he hit just .216 with a .634 OPS in the second half of the season.
Even in the first half of the 2025 season, Crow-Armstrong posted just a .302 on-base percentage. He was still able to ride an .847 OPS into being an early-season NL MVP candidate because he homered 25 times, but Crow-Armstrong is overly reliant on hitting the ball out of the park offensively. When he's not doing that, he doesn't provide a ton of value because he doesn't draw walks or hit for a high batting average.
The good news for the Cubs is that regardless of what he's doing at the plate, Crow-Armstrong is arguably the top defender at any position in baseball, as evidenced by the six defensive runs saved and four outs above average that he's already accumulated in 2026.
Still, the Cubs have to be worried that Crow-Armstrong isn't going to ever sniff the offensive output that he posted during the first half of the 2025 season.
The League Appears To Have Missed on Munetaka Murakami
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Concerns about his ability to hit velocity and limited defensive flexibility led to Munetaka Murakami's market cratering this past offseason.
Initially expected to get well over $100 million as he came over from Japan to the United States, Murakami had to settle for a two-year, $34 million contract with the Chicago White Sox.
As it turns out, Murakami's power has translated from Nippon Professional Baseball, Japan's top league. He homered in all three games against the Athletics this past weekend, and his eight homers on the season trail only Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge:
Murakami has mostly played first base, and has been serviceable there. Frankly, whether it's first base, DH or some combination, teams will put up with limited defensive flexibility if you have 40-homer potential, which Murakami looks like he does.
If the White Sox are smart, they'll move pretty quickly to extend the 26-year-old, who will be a coveted free agent if he continues to deliver this type of power production and reaches the open market after the 2027 season.
There's Reason To Be Concerned About Bo Bichette (Among Other Things With the Mets)
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It's not particularly shocking that Bo Bichette is still getting adjusted at third base after spending the first seven seasons of his career playing shortstop. And for what it's worth, Bichette actually hasn't graded out poorly at third base, with zero defensive runs saved and one out above average in the early going.
What is concerning is that Bichette—twice the American League leader in hits—is batting just .217 with a .538 OPS in his first season with the New York Mets.
According to Sports Illustrated's Pat Ragazzo, "scouts who have watched Bichette don't think he looks fully healthy when running the bases and believe he's still nursing the PCL sprain in his left knee from late last season."
It's definitely problematic if Bichette's left knee—which caused him to miss much of September and all of the AL playoffs last year before returning for the World Series—isn't healed after a whole offseason. It makes you wonder how the 28-year-old is going to age, and perhaps makes a team like the Philadelphia Phillies happy in hindsight that Bichette didn't accept their seven-year offer in the winter.
But the Mets gave up second and fifth-round picks, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money, to sign Bichette to a three-year, $126 million deal with player opt outs after each season. If Bichette doesn't heat up, then he probably won't opt out. But the Mets signed him thinking he would play well enough to opt out, with the thought being that even if he only spent a year in Flushing, he could help them to compete for a World Series.
So far, the Mets have gotten the hits machine that played for the Toronto Blue Jays for seven seasons. Lingering concerns about his health give you reason for pause when trying to evaluate whether Bichette can overcome this slow start.
This, of course, is one of just many issues facing the Mets, who entered the season with World Series aspirations but now have lost 11 consecutive games. Carlos Mendoza's seat has to be scalding hot, even if it's uncommon for managers to get fired this early in the season.
If Mike Trout Stays Healthy, He Will Compete for the AL MVP
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Aaron Judge said this of fellow three-time AL MVP Mike Trout last week to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
"If he (plays) 160 games," Judge said, "he's going to put up MVP numbers."
That might seem obvious, but Trout is going to turn 35 in August. We knew entering the season that he could still be a really good player, but at this stage of his career, it was fair to wonder whether MVP-level Trout was still in there.
Well, the show that Trout put on last week at Yankee Stadium this past week answered that question.
Can Trout play 160 games? It's fair to be skeptical of that, because Trout hasn't played more than 134 games since the 2018 season. But these glimpses remind you that he's still one of the game's elite talents when he's available.
The Dodgers Have Developed Another All-Star
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As if Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Kyle Tucker weren't enough, the Dodgers seem to have developed another All-Star level player in Andy Pages.
On the heels of his World Series Game 7-saving catch last fall, Pages already has two defensive runs saved. What's more, he's tearing the cover off the ball, as he leads baseball in batting average, hits and RBIs. According to FanGraphs, he leads all NL position players in WAR.
With every MLB team guaranteed to have at least one All-Star, it's difficult for someone other than one of the established stars on the Dodgers to make it to the Midsummer Classic. But if the 25-year-old's hot start is any indication, the senior circuit squad is going to have to find a spot for him on the roster this July.
Yordan Alvarez Is Back to Being One of Baseball's Scariest Hitters
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Even after he was limited to 48 games last season, Yordan Alvarez still checked in on B/R's top 25 players for the 2026 season at No. 20. The only regret from that list in hindsight is that Alvarez might not have been high enough.
The three-time All-Star has already homered nine times, and at the time of publication, he is leading baseball on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases.
From 2021-2024, Alvarez hit 31 or more home runs every season. That seems to be the baseline for him, if healthy. His highest AL MVP finish came at No. 3 in 2022. Still only 29 years old, Alvarez could prove to be the biggest competition to the aforementioned Judge for AL MVP.
The Vibes Coming From the Phillies Are Bad
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The Phillies aren't in quite as dire of a situation as the division-rival Mets, but the two-time defending NL East Champions have had a pretty brutal start to their season as well.
At the time of publication, the Phillies are 8-12, with an MLB-worst minus-36 run differential.
What's crazy is that so much of the offseason was spent debating president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski's comments about whether or not Bryce Harper is still elite. After getting out of the gates slowly, Harper has been on fire in April, a month where he has a 1.105 OPS. And almost no one has cared, because the production around Harper has been so poor.
Alec Bohm—who is embroiled in a lawsuit against his parents—has just a .203 slugging percentage.
Bryson Stott has followed up a the .855 OPS he posted in the second half of last season with a .493 OPS so far this season.
Jhoan Duran landed on the IL with a left oblique injury over the weekend, while José Alvarado has a 9.00 ERA through a rocky first 10 appearances.
There are areas where the Phillies are going to improve. Jesús Luzardo isn't going to finish the season with a 7.94 ERA. Based on their histories, Bohm, Stott and Alvarado will be better, it's just a matter of to what degree.
Still, it's hard to shake just how badly the Phillies have played in April, and wonder whether the window has closed on a team with so many players on the wrong side of 30.
Nolan Arenado Looks Finished Offensively
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During his first month as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Nolan Arenado has still had some flashes of the being the guy who won 10 Gold Gloves in a row to start his career and was six times named the Platinum Glove winner as the senior circuit's top defender.
There hasn't, however, been much to like offensively. Arenado has homered three times in 2026, but he's hitting just .214 with a .579 OPS. The five-time Silver Slugger Award winner has struck out in 22.2 percent of at-bats, a noticeable increase from his career average of 14.6 percent.
Arenado is going to have a compelling Hall of Fame case when his career concludes. But his slow start—coupled with the .697 OPS he posted during his final two seasons with the Cardinals—doesn't leave you with a good feeling about how the last two campaigns of his nine-year, $275 million contract are going to play out.
