Fresh NFL Mock Draft Trends for Notable Prospects Rising and Falling

At the point in the predraft process, NFL teams have done their work. They've watched the film, attended the workouts, and conducted their interviews. Their opinions on prospects are largely set, and the hay, as they say, is in the barn.

In the finals weeks leading up to the draft, however, we inevitably hear about prospects who are late risers and fallers on draft boards. There are several reasons for this phenomenon.

Most of the time, media members and draft analysts have gathered fresh intel and alter their opinions to more closely match those of team decision-makers. Sometimes, teams intentionally provide misinformation in the hopes that a coveted prospect will fall within a desired draft range.

Regardless of why mock draft trends change long after games, workouts, and interviews have been completed, they can provide a more accurate picture of how things may unfold on draft day. With this in mind, let's swallow a grain or two of salt and examine some risers and fallers with the draft just over a week away.

Falling: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

AP Photo/Melissa Tamez

We know that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is extremely likely to go to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1 overall. However, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is the No. 1-ranked prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's 2026 draft board.

Downs is a complete do-it-all safety who can fill any role at the pro level and who carries a low bust potential. In another year, he might be a top-10 lock, but he could fall outside of the top 10 this season due to positional value.

"As good as Downs is, he also plays a position that tends to be devalued in the NFL," Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport wrote. "There hasn't been a safety drafted in the top 10 since Jamal Adams went sixth overall to the New York Jets in 2017."

Downs landed with the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 10 in Davenport's mock draft. That's also where he landed in The Ringer's Todd McShay's mock from a few weeks ago and in a recent mock from NFL Media's Rhett Lewis.

However, Bleacher Report's Brent Sobleski had Downs falling to the Miami Dolphins at No. 11 in his recent mock, while ESPN's Peter Schrager had him falling to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 12. NFL Media's Chad Reuter, on the other hand, had Downs landing with the New Orleans Saints at No. 8 overall.

Rising: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

While one standout safety appears to be falling due to positional value, another appears to be on the rise. Oregon's Dillon Thieneman isn't viewed as a top-20 prospect in every mock draft, but after a three-year career and a strong combine performance, he appears to be trending in that direction.

ESPN's Jeff Legwold recently explained:

"There are a few players in every draft with an extensive enough body of work to make league evaluators comfortable. Then there are the players who shake things up a bit at the Senior Bowl or the combine, forcing evaluators to take another look. Thieneman fits into the latter bucket and has likely moved from a mid-to-late Day 2 pick into the first round."

There's a very real chance that when the draft commences next week, only a handful of picks separate Downs and Thieneman.

Thieneman landed with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 18 in Lewis' mock, in McShay's mock, and in Sobleski's mock. He went a little lower in Reuter's mock, landing with the Chicago Bears at No. 26 in a projected trade. Schrager had him landing with Miami at No. 30.

At this point, it'll be a fairly big surprise if Thieneman doesn't hear his name called on opening night.

Faller: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

There was a time in the predraft process that Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson felt like a lock for the top half of Round 1. Tyson is the top-ranked receiver on the B/R Scouting Department's board, and he possesses all the tools and traits to be a No. 1 receiver at the next level.

However, injuries remain a significant concern with Tyson, who suffered a significant knee injury, a broken collarbone, and lingering hamstring issues in college. The hamstring issue also prevented him from running at the combine or Arizona State's pro day. These concerns appear to have Tyson trending toward the back end of Round 1 or later.

At the very least, ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller believes that Tyson will fall out of the top 20.

Not everyone agrees, however. Sobleski and McShay mocked Tyson to the Los Angeles Rams at No. 13, while Lewis paired him with the New York Jets at No. 16. Reuter sent him to the Browns at No. 22, while Schrager had him landing with the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9.

Davenport, though, didn't have him going in the first round at all.

In other words, it's hard to know exactly how Tyson is being valued—and his value likely varies from team to team. Things could become a little clearer this week, as Tyson is scheduled to hold a private workout for teams on Friday.

Riser: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Projections for Georgia tackle prospect Monroe Freeling vary greatly, but it feels like he'll be drafted much higher than most would have predicted early in the pre-draft process.

Freeling is only the 48th-ranked prospect on the B/R board, but the lack of quality linemen in the draft, coupled with Freeling's growth, could make him an early first-round pick.

"Scouts who monitor the SEC said they could see Freeling's pass-protection technique improve in real time," Legwold wrote. "His hand placement got better throughout the season against some of the most explosive defensive players on this draft board."

Sobleski mocked Freeling to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 27, while Schrager sent him to the Carolina Panthers at No. 19. Lewis mocked Freeling to the Detroit Lions at No. 17, as did McShay.

Reuter, meanwhile, had the former Bulldog going to the Cleveland Browns all the way up at No. 6 overall.

"Freeling is one of the few true left tackles available in this draft," Reuter wrote. "His length and athleticism should catch the attention of the Browns, who must find a blindside blocker for whoever is leading the offense going forward."

While Freeling would probably be a Day-2 prospect in another draft class, he's probably cemented himself as a Day 1 pick in 2026.