Upset Meter for Every Men's 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Game
The opening weekend of the 2026 NCAA tournament is in the books, and the field of national championship contenders has been whittled from 68 teams down to the Sweet 16.
Most of the top seeds are still standing, but there are no easy games going forward, and matchups will start to mean more than just pure talent.
Ahead we've given our upset meter rating—low, moderate or high—for the chances of each underdog across all eight Sweet 16 matchups coming away with a victory.
The college basketball world now has a few days to catch its collective breath before the madness begins again next Thursday, so for now, let this serve as a preview of what's to come later this week.
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas
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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (7:10 pm ET on CBS)
Moneyline: Purdue (-325)
The Texas Longhorns backed their way into the NCAA tournament with a 1-4 record over their final five regular-season games and a loss in their SEC tournament opener to No. 15 seed Ole Miss.
Now they are rolling after surviving NC State in the First Four and then upsetting No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga to reach the Sweet 16.
They are playing some of their best defense of the season right now, and doing an excellent job protecting the ball on offense, but the biggest story has been the play of center Matas Vokietaitis. The 7'0", 245-pound post is averaging 18.3 points and 11.0 rebounds in his three tournament games.
He could have a tougher time banging against Purdue center Oscar Cluff, who is an imposing inside presence in his own right at 6'11", 255 pounds, and he has six blocks through two games.
A pesky Miami defense forced Boilermakers point guard Braden Smith into eight turnovers, but that's not a strength for the Longhorns who force just 9.2 turnovers per contest.
Upset Meter: Low. The Longhorns defense thrived facing teams with go-to scorers in AJ Dybantsa (BYU) and Graham Ike (Gonzaga). Slowing down a Purdue offense that averages 20 assists per game is a completely different animal.
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa
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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (7:30 pm ET on TBS)
Moneyline: Nebraska (-140)
After a 20-0 start to the year, the Nebraska Cornhuskers stumbled to a 2-4 record in their next six games, and that shaky stretch included a 57-52 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road.
They avenged that loss in the regular-season finale with an 84-75 overtime victory, and now the decisive third matchup will determine which Big Ten squad advances to the Elite Eight.
The 52 points the Cornhuskers scored in the first game were a season low, and they just held a high-powered Florida Gators offense below 75 points for just the seventh time this year in a 73-72 upset victory over the No. 1 seed.
Iowa star Bennett Stirtz had 25 points in the game the Hawkeyes won earlier this year, compared to 11 points in the game they lost, so Nebraska's ability to slow him down will be the key to preventing another Iowa upset.
Upset Meter: Moderate. The familiarity level here makes this a true coin toss, and both teams are coming off emotional, down-to-the-wire games.
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas
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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (9:45 pm ET on CBS)
Moneyline: Arizona (-335)
Can Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley and star freshman Brayden Burries do enough to slow down first team All-American Darius Acuff Jr. in a fantastic backcourt battle?
The Wildcats have a significant size advantage, which will be a factor on the boards and offensively with 7'2", 260-pound center Motiejus Krivas capable of stepping up his production when the matchup dictates more scoring.
However, Acuff can be the great equalizer.
The freshman phenom averages 23.3 points and 6.5 assists per game while shooting a blistering 44.6 percent from three-point range. He has scored 30 points six different times this season, including a 36-point, six-assist performance against upstart High Point on Saturday.
The impact of John Calipari is also worth mentioning, as he will no doubt have a game plan for how to attack Arizona's size advantage.
With all of that said, the Wildcats are one of only two teams in the nation that ranks inside the top five in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. In other words, it's hard to find a true weakness in their game.
Upset Meter: Moderate. A superstar like Acuff is capable of putting a team on his back, but that could be what it takes for Arkansas to have a shot.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois
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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (10:05 pm ET on TBS)
Moneyline: Houston (-145)
This is a matchup of two teams with legitimate national championship upside in the Sweet 16, and the winner here might immediately become the favorite to emerge from the South Region.
The Houston Cougars are a typical Kelvin Sampson squad, with excellent guard play, grind-it-out tempo and a defense that ranks No. 4 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They protect the ball extremely well, with freshman point guard Kingston Flemings (16.2 PPG, 5.2 APG) running the show, and limit the opposition to 62.3 points per game.
The Cougars went 24-1 when they held the opposition below 70 points, compared to 6-5 when they surrendered above that threshold.
On the flip side, the Illini rank No. 2 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and average 84.7 points per game. They have been held below 70 points just once all season.
Both teams average fewer than nine turnovers per game and do a fantastic job protecting the basketball, so this one will come down to execution rather than mistakes.
Upset Meter: High. The Illini can put points on the board like few teams in the country, and Houston's game plan hinges on keeping the score low.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John's
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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (7:10 pm ET on CBS)
Moneyline: Duke (-258)
With a 21-1 record in their last 22 games, the St. John's Red Storm are as hot as any team in the country right now.
In their last three games alone, they have a 20-point blowout victory over UConn in the Big East championship, a 26-point win over upset-minded Northern Iowa in the first round and a 67-65 win against Kansas on Sunday.
Now another blue blood awaits in Duke in the Sweet 16.
The Blue Devils were the best team in college basketball during the regular season and claimed the top overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but the lights looked a little bright in a 71-65 scare against No. 16 seed Siena in the first round.
That seemed to be an important lesson learned, as they looked far more like the team many are picking to win it all with an 81-58 victory over TCU on Saturday. They outscored the Horned Frogs by a 43-24 margin in the second half, and appear to finally be hitting their stride.
Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor facing off against ACC Player of the Year Cameron Boozer will be the story of this game, and Ejiofor is the type of shutdown interior defender who could force the rest of the Blue Devils roster to step up by slowing down the likely National Player of the Year.
Upset Meter: Moderate. The Blue Devils have enough weapons to still pull out a victory even if Boozer is kept in check, but this St. John's team is capable of beating anyone right now.
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (7:35 pm ET on TBS)
Moneyline: Michigan (-490)
This matchup hinges on whether the Alabama Crimson Tide can push the tempo, because they can't outsize the Michigan Wolverines, but they might be able to out-run and out-shoot them if they get a chance to play their style of basketball.
The Crimson Tide play with the fastest tempo of any team in this year's NCAA tournament field. They entered Sunday night's game against Texas Tech averaging 91.7 points per game, and they butted right up to that NCAA-leading mark in a 90-65 victory on Sunday night.
They also shoot more threes than any team in the nation, and knock them down at over a 35 percent clip. The loss of Aden Holloway does leave Alabama without one of its top outside threats, but that has not slowed them down so far during March Madness.
On the other side, the Wolverines are the nation's No. 1 defensive team, and they can bully opponents on both ends of the floor behind the trio of 6'9" Yaxel Lendeborg, 6'9" Morez Johnson Jr. and 7'3" Aday Mara who often share the floor. They have allowed more than 80 points just three times all season, while giving up exactly 80 twice to a Purdue team capable of elite offensive production.
This is a dream matchup for anyone who loves the prototypical offense vs. defense clash.
Upset Meter: High. If Alabama controls the tempo and gets hot from beyond the arc, Michigan's vaunted defense might not be able to put out the fire.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State
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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (9:45 pm ET on CBS)
Moneyline: UConn (-110)
After No. 15 seed Furman gave them everything they could handle in the first round, the UConn Huskies put together a far more dominant showing against No. 7 seed UCLA on Sunday night.
The Huskies got a career-high 27 points from senior Alex Karaban, and another double-double from center Tarris Reed Jr., who finished with 10 points and 13 rebounds on the heels of his 31-point, 27-rebound performance in the first round.
Rebounds could be a major factor in the Sweet 16.
The Michigan State Spartans are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, but the Huskies have the bodies to negate that advantage, and they held a dominant 36-24 edge on the glass in their 73-57 win over the Bruins.
If they are unable to carry an edge on the boards, and give away a few possessions with their 11.6 turnovers per game, the Spartans could have a tough time pulling off an upset.
This UConn team is not the same juggernaut we saw a few years ago, but they match up well with Michigan State's style of play, and they do a better job protecting the basketball.
Upset Meter: Moderate. If Michigan State can step up the physicality a notch and take care of the basketball, this one is a coin toss.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee
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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (10:10 pm ET on TBS)
Moneyline: Iowa State (-180)
No Joshua Jefferson, no problem for the Iowa State Cyclones to this point in their NCAA tournament run.
The All-American forward was sidelined with an ankle injury in the opening minutes of their first-round matchup against Tennessee State and watched from the sidelines on Sunday against No. 7 Kentucky, but the Cyclones have still won their first two games by a combined 53 points.
The defense wreaked havoc against the Wildcats on Sunday, forcing 19 turnovers and turning them into 25 points on the other end. Point guard Tamin Lipsey led the charge with five steals, also adding a career-high 26 points and 10 assists.
Now he will be tasked with slowing down Tennessee star Ja'Kobi Gillespie.
The Volunteers point guard averaged 18.0 points and 5.5 rebounds during the regular season, and he has 50 points and 15 assists through his first two games of the 2026 NCAA tournament.
Vanderbilt star Tyler Tanner gave Gillespie fits when they faced off earlier this month, forcing him into five turnovers and limiting him to 5-of-22 shooting and 1-of-11 from beyond the arc. The Volunteers lost that game 86-82.
Upset Meter: Low. If the Cyclones defense shows up the way it did against Kentucky, another SEC team could be sent packing.
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