NCAA Upset Predictions 2026, Cinderella Picks for Men's March Madness Bracket

Has men's college basketball left its Madness era behind?

It's definitely too early to say that with any conviction, and certainly no one is hoping that's the case. Yet, Madness hasn't been much of a March staple since the transfer portal and name, image and likeness really widened the gap between college basketball's haves and have-nots.

Could that mean the 2026 NCAA Tournament will be as chalky as the last couple? Sure, but the single-elimination setup alone creates chaos-friendly conditions. Glass slippers might fit after all, and with the bracket now set, we even have ideas for who could slide those slippers on in time for some bracket-busting upsets.

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East: No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville

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KenPom senses a wide gap between its 19th-ranked Cardinals and 47th-ranked Bulls, but that might reflect their season-long credentials more than their current levels. Because with the status of Louisville star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. up in the air (back), this could be closer to a coin flip.

Brown paced the Cardinals in assists and steals this season while ranking second in points. His potential absence is a very big deal.

It's also not the only factor behind this prediction. The Bulls also happen to be on fire. They have won 11 in a row and are 17-3 in 2026 with those losses being decided by a total of five points. Their offense can run fiery hot, and it's entering in a good place with junior guard Wes Enis on a heater (23.4 points per game over his last five outings).

West: No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami

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While we'd advise keeping an eye on No. 12 High Point, the Panthers drew a tricky matchup with No. 5 Wisconsin. These aren't your father's Badgers; they can really fill it up. And while the Panthers are more than comfortable in a shootout, their best bet is overwhelming opponents with offense, and the Badgers just have more firepower.

So, instead we're looking at the 7-10 tussle and a disservice to the Hurricanes from the selection committee. This contest will be held in St. Louis—as in St. Louis, Missouri. As in just down the street (relatively speaking) for the Tigers and nowhere remotely close to the Hurricanes.

That is, admittedly, the biggest driver behind this prediction, as Miami is simply better, and Missouri is coming in colder (three-game losing streak, 3-5 over its last eight). But the longer this game stays close, the more this potential home-like environment could be a factor.

Midwest: No. 11 Miami (Ohio) over No. 6 Tennessee

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We're tiptoeing out over a limb here, since this matchup isn't even guaranteed to happen. Miami must take care of SMU in a First Four meeting just to set this up.

But if the Redhawks win as they have in 31 of their 32 games this season, they have a real chance to scare a Volunteers team that is far from being the model of consistency. Tennessee enters the tournament having lost four of its last six.

The Volunteers would have significant physical advantages, but if their sporadic offense sputters, the Redhawks' free-flowing attack could capitalize.

South: No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina

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Even without star freshman Caleb Wilson, the Tar Heels have more talent here—by a not insignificant margin. Yet, they've struggled with consistency all season and haven't played with the same physicality since Wilson went down.

The Rams have had some up-and-down stretches themselves, but they closed the year by sandwiching winning streaks of 10 and six games around a loss to ninth-seeded Saint Louis. They live at the foul line and take a lot of smart shots.

They'll go to small and quick lineups that can be vulnerable to size, but the Wilson-less Heels aren't guaranteed to take advantage of that. Instead, North Carolina could wind up getting spread out and picked apart.