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New Win-Loss Predictions for Every NBA Team
March is the last full month of the 2025-26 NBA regular season, and we're due for an update on the win-loss predictions we released in the middle of February.
The sheer number of teams affected by the tanking epidemic makes this projection trickier than usual, as half of the games on every night's schedule seem to feature some combination of scheduled rest, suspicious injury or minute-management. We'll soldier on anyway, trying to game out how each team will finish up the season in the standings.
Strength of schedule, recent play and overall performance this season are all factors. Injuries, unfortunately, will also play a major role.
The good news is that returns to health are looking likely in a couple of key cases, which could juice record projections for teams like the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.
Atlanta Hawks: 41-41
1 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 46-36
Dec. 1 Prediction: 45-37
Feb. 16 Prediction: 39-43
It helps that they drew the Washington Wizards twice since we last projected their record, but the Atlanta Hawks still get a bump after winning five of their last six games.
Jonathan Kuminga's insertion into the rotation gave Atlanta an additional scoring threat who is clearly playing with a chip on his shoulder. Kuminga made at least half of his shots and averaged 21.3 points per game across his first three appearances for Atlanta, flashing the breathtaking athleticism and forceful attacking style that so tantalized Golden State Warriors fans.
A home-heavy stretch through the middle of March could help the Hawks climb toward the No. 7 seed in the East, but they'll find it harder to hold opponents to barely 100.0 points per 100 possessions going forward. That's the best defensive rating in the league since we last made predictions.
Again: They played the Wizards twice.
Boston Celtics: 56-26
2 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 37-45
Dec. 1 Prediction: 36-46
Feb. 16 Prediction: 54-28
The Boston Celtics got their major record correction last time, but it's possible the jump from 36 to 54 wins wasn't enough of a swing.
All the Celtics did over the past couple of weeks was rack up five wins in six tries, post the best point differential in the league and set an all-time scoring-efficiency mark. Their 148-111 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Feb. 27 saw them drain 52 of their 78 attempts from the field, including a 64.7 percent clip from deep. All together, that amounted to an effective field-goal percentage of 80.8 percent, the highest ever recorded in the shot clock era.
Shooting nights like that are hard to come by, but the Celtics are all the way up to No. 2 (and closing fast on the Denver Nuggets) in offensive efficiency. After erring on the conservative side all year, we're taking a swing in the other direction by adding a few more victories to Boston's total from last time.
Now just imagine what might happen if Jayson Tatum decides to come back.
Brooklyn Nets: 19-63
3 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 16-66
Dec. 1 Prediction: 17-65
Feb. 16 Prediction: 19-63
Everything is going to plan for the Brooklyn Nets lately, as evidenced by their 0-7 mark and league-worst net rating since Feb. 16.
Brooklyn has now lost eight straight and has won just three times since Jan. 18. The closest the Nets came to a victory during this most recent stretch was a four-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 1, but they made sure to send the Cavs to the foul line 15 times in the fourth quarter. That helped turn a one-point lead at the end of the third into a four-point loss.
You could practically hear the tanking Nets sigh with relief, especially with NBA commissioner Adam Silver pointedly telling general manager Sean Marks that this sort of behavior will be a lot harder to get away with next season.
Brooklyn's recent performance indicates it's maximally committed to winning this season's race to the bottom. It'll be a miracle–one they definitely don't want to see—if the Nets get their win total out of the teens.
Charlotte Hornets: 46-36
4 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 29-53
Dec. 1 Prediction: 31-51
Feb. 16 Prediction: 45-37
The offense just keeps humming in Charlotte, where Kon Knueppel is setting rookie shooting records, LaMelo Ball chaotically presides over the most fearsome scoring lineup in the league and Brandon Miller often outplays both of his better-known teammates.
The Hornets are firmly within the top 10 in scoring efficiency, and their preferred starting five—Ball, Knueppel, Miller, Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabaté—has, by far, the highest offensive rating of any high-usage five-man unit. The kicker: Charlotte's defense is fifth-best in the league since Dec. 1.
If you want to throw cold water on Charlotte's surge, you can easily do so by pointing out that it hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since Feb. 5 when it took down the Houston Rockets on the road. That said, the Hornets are getting it done on both ends and have what appears to be a legitimately elite attack. They've put real distance between themselves and the 11th-seeded Milwaukee Bucks for the final Play-In spot and could easily climb as high as seventh in the East.
Chicago Bulls: 31-51
5 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 38-44
Dec. 1 Prediction: 39-43
Feb. 16 Prediction: 32-50
One way to ensure the losses mount is to throw the ball all over the gym on offense, and the Chicago Bulls seem to have opted for that strategy as they nose-dive down the stretch.
Nobody posted a higher turnover rate than the Bulls' 20.7 percent since we last made record predictions, and that lack of ball security produced five losses in the team's most recent six games. Josh Giddey coughed it up five times against the Pistons on Feb. 21 and had at least four turnovers in three of his next four games.
Chicago's other glaring issue is up front, where Jalen Smith, Guerschon Yabusele and Patrick Williams have manned the consistently undersized power forward and center spots. This was a choice, as the Bulls dealt away Nikola Vučević at the deadline, thinning an already weak front line.
It is a little odd that Chicago has held up relatively well on defense lately, while the lack of big-man options is actually a bigger problem on the other end. But hey, losses are losses, and that's what the Bulls are after these days.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 52-30
6 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 57-25
Dec. 1 Prediction: 51-31
Feb. 16 Prediction: 52-30
The Cleveland Cavaliers haven't blown the doors off since adding James Harden, sitting at a solid 4-3 since the All-Star break. Look a little closer than that, and things are actually going pretty well.
All three of those losses were by single digits. Two of them were against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons. The only inexcusable slip was a two-point defeat at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks on Feb. 25, and that featured a missed layup by Dennis Schroder (which he should have made) and a split-second-late putback by Jarrett Allen that would have tied the game. Oh, and neither Donovan Mitchell nor Harden played that night.
We're not in the excuse-making business, but that context matters. As long as Harden's thumb fracture doesn't cost him too much productivity, and as long as Cleveland keeps getting electrifying play from its new starters—Harden, Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley and Allen—it'll be hard for the win total to come in under 50.
One key note: Mitchell's groin injury has held him out since Feb. 24. If that lingers, 50 wins would be a fine outcome.
Dallas Mavericks: 26-56
7 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 33-49
Feb. 16 Prediction: 26-56
Cooper Flagg should be back shortly after you read this, which will at least make the Dallas Mavericks more watchable than they've been without their star rookie.
Whether it makes them any better is a different question.
Dallas won road games against the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets since we last made predictions, emerging victorious in a battle against a pair of fellow tankers. The Mavs had lost 10 straight games before that, seven of which included a healthy Flagg.
He's certainly not the reason the Mavericks skidded like that, but it's pretty hard to argue that a teenager is good enough to overcome the rest of the issues on this roster.
A lengthy road trip lies ahead, and Dallas will be lucky to win more than once through the middle of March.
Denver Nuggets: 49-33
8 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 53-29
Dec. 1 Prediction: 57-25
Feb. 16 Prediction: 49-33
The Denver Nuggets haven't won two straight games since January, and a head-to-head defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 1 knocked them down to the No. 5 spot in the West.
Defense remains the team's biggest concern. Nikola Jokić is playing like the guy who inspired "you can't win a title with him on D" criticisms years ago. He put them to rest when Denver went all the way in 2023, but opponents are getting to the rim a ton and finishing at a high clip whenever he's on the floor.
The Nuggets' regular starters—Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, Cam Johnson and Jokić—have a defensive rating of 123.2 that ranks in just the 23rd percentile league-wide. That's not good enough to produce consistent success, even with a predictably excellent Jokić-led offense.
To get to 49 wins, the Nuggets need to finish with a 11-9 mark. Considering they're 9-11 over their past 20 games, maybe we're being generous.
Detroit Pistons: 60-22
9 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 45-37
Dec. 1 Prediction: 53-29
Feb. 16 Prediction: 60-22
The Detroit Pistons didn't shoot the ball well or score efficiently in a six-game sample of action since Feb. 16, but they won five of those contests because they defended, rebounded, won the physicality battle every night and got just enough playmaking from Cade Cunningham to prevail.
What else is new?
The only defeat in that mix came against the San Antonio Spurs, who managed Detroit's physicality well and also exposed the team's total lack of secondary playmaking.
Against most teams, and in regular season games that don't feature playoff intensity (which the San Antonio contest definitely did), the Pistons will come out on top playing their brand of flawed but highly effective ball. They figure to win as often as any other team down the stretch, but be sure to file away those offensive questions when the postseason rolls around.
Golden State Warriors: 42-40
10 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 47-35
Dec. 1 Prediction: 44-38
Feb. 16 Prediction: 44-38
Stephen Curry hasn't played since Jan. 30 and will be out until at least March 13, per a report from Anthony Slater of ESPN. That the Golden State Warriors held onto a respectable level of play for most of Curry's absence speaks to the buy-in from the roster and head coach Steve Kerr's offensive system, but the lack of talent is going to be too much to bear eventually.
Note, too, that Curry's return could coincide with an absolutely brutal road trip through the East. An extended absence is tough enough for a 38-year-old to shake off, but a slate that includes the Knicks, Celtics and Pistons in a six-day span from March 15-21 is about as punishing of a "Welcome Back!" trio as there is.
Kristaps Porzingis has appeared in one game since joining the team, and it's starting to feel like Gui Santos' hustle and De'Anthony Melton's impressive step into a key starting role won't be enough to keep this run of respectability going.
Houston Rockets: 52-30
11 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 52-30
Dec. 1 Prediction: 56-26
Feb. 16 Prediction: 53-29
After some December exuberance, we've now circled all the way back to our original preseason record prediction for the Houston Rockets, who'll need to go a manageable 14-8 down the stretch to reach 52 wins.
What happens from there will likely be determined by how well the Rockets manage their offensive spacing issues. They've compensated for a lack of outside shooting volume by dominating the offensive glass, and that strategy has worked for a large enough chunk of the season to believe in its sustainability over the next few weeks.
We just need to flag these scoring concerns the same way we did with the Pistons'.
Houston's late-game offense is below the league average and contributes to its 15-17 mark in close-and-late contests.
Indiana Pacers: 19-63
12 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 34-48
Dec. 1 Prediction: 26-56
Feb. 16 Prediction: 20-62
Obi Toppin is back, which at least makes the Indiana Pacers look a little more like the team that went to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. It'd probably help more if Tyrese Haliburton were also in the lineup alongside Myles Turner, but the bouncy power forward's return after four months on the shelf is still a welcome sight.
Also welcome in Indiana: losses.
The Pacers are 0-6 since Feb. 16 and don't seem likely to halt that streak as they head out West for a four-game road trip that starts on March 4. This latest slump stemmed from an offense that remains 30th in the league and a defense that continues to sink nearly that low.
At the moment, Indiana is 24th in defensive efficiency, but that figure feels too good if you've watched the team lately.
LA Clippers: 40-42
13 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 45-37
Dec. 1 Prediction: 37-45
Feb. 16 Prediction: 34-48
Maybe we got a little too pessimistic on the LA Clippers' post-deadline prospects last time around by predicting a 34-48 finishing mark. The thinking then was that the departure of Ivica Zubac and the trade of James Harden for an injured Darius Garland would trigger more rest days for Kawhi Leonard and a generally deflated atmosphere.
While it's still hard to see the Clips finishing above .500 or climbing any higher than eighth in the West, rumors of their total demise may have been exaggerated.
Bennedict Mathurin has been a reliable source of 20-plus points off the bench, and Derrick Jones Jr. is in the midst of one of his best stretches after finally kicking the injury bug. With Leonard still playing at an All-NBA level, LA will never be a pushover.
Let's acknowledge the mistake from last time around and hand the Clips another half-dozen wins.
Los Angeles Lakers: 45-37
14 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 47-35
Dec. 1 Prediction: 50-32
Feb. 16 Prediction: 45-37
A 1-4 record after the All-Star break sparked some concern, and it's probably not reasonable to view wins over the injured Warriors and putrid Kings as signs of course correction.
The Los Angeles Lakers have the point differential of a 42-win team and own the league's highest discrepancy (which is bad) between net rating and record. In other words, they've won a lot of close games and gotten blown out in an alarming number of their losses. They have enough banked wins to sustain their previous prediction of 45 wins, but it's getting harder and harder to view them as a playoff threat.
The offense continues to function at a high level, ranking third in the league over the last two weeks. As has been the case all season, the defense continues to give back far too much on the other end. The Lakers are all the way down to 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions and are even worse than that with Luka Dončić on the floor.
Memphis Grizzlies: 28-54
15 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 46-36
Dec. 1 Prediction: 38-44
Feb. 16 Prediction: 27-55
The Memphis Grizzlies saw our prediction of just 27 wins last time around and clearly set out to prove it wrong. They're 3-3 over their last six games, and those wins all count, despite coming against the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers.
The sledding will get tougher over the next couple of weeks, but Memphis only needs five more wins on the season to get past that 27-win mark. Let's up the win total by one, so they can aim even higher.
Scotty Pippen Jr., Ty Jerome and deadline addition Walter Clayton Jr. are simultaneously healthy for the first time, which gives the Grizz competent playmaking in the backcourt. That goes a long way toward avoiding a complete bottom-out on offense, but extreme inexperience throughout the rest of the rotation and clever minute-management by the coaching staff should keep the losses coming.
Long term, it's encouraging that both GG Jackson and Jalen Wells shot over 50.0 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from deep during Memphis' recent 3-3 stretch.
Miami Heat: 45-37
16 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 49-33
Feb. 16 Prediction: 44-38
Bam Adebayo was spectacular during the Miami Heat's first five games after the All-Star break, averaging 20.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists while hitting 50.6 of his shots overall and 39.3 percent of his treys.
It was still only good enough to earn Miami a 3-2 record during that stretch, with both losses coming by single digits on the road.
The Heat have scored the ball well lately and have crept up to No. 16 in offensive efficiency after ranking fourth over the last two weeks. Paired with a defense that has hung in the top 10 (and often top five) all year, that kind of attack will more than get the job done.
Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins have both made strong contributions to the offense lately, helping offset three-point shooting slumps from Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks: 39-43
17 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 39-43
Feb. 16 Prediction: 32-50
Giannis Antetokounmpo is back after missing 15 games for the Milwaukee Bucks. It still feels like a borderline miracle that they went 8-7 in that span, but the Bucks' surprising respectability without their superstar makes that 32-win prediction from mid-February look offensively low in hindsight.
It's hard to predict much about Giannis' performance and minutes going forward, except that he'll give whatever he has for as long as the team allows him to play. His return immediately makes Milwaukee a threat on any night, and it also helps that Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. both spread their wings a little wider without Antetokounmpo in the lineup for over a month.
Because the Bucks weathered the storm without Giannis, they've earned a return to their Dec. 1 prediction level. We're bumping them all the way back up to 39-43.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 53-29
18 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 55-27
Dec. 1 Prediction: 52-30
Feb. 16 Prediction: 52-30
A 117-108 win at Denver gave the Minnesota Timberwolves their fourth straight win on the road and, perhaps more importantly, showed they could put together a strong effort against one of the league's best teams.
Heading into that contest, Minnesota was just 13-15 against teams with records of .500 or better, a concerning sign for a squad looking to make its third straight Conference Finals appearance.
Anthony Edwards' late-game shotmaking continues to impress, and it's equally important that Donte DiVincenzo, one of the biggest X-factors on any team in the playoff picture, is hitting more than half of his threes across the Wolves' last five games.
Overall, Minnesota is among the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while amassing a point differential that squares with about 54 wins. The Wolves would have to run hot to reach that number, but we're still nudging them a little closer to it in light of recent play.
New Orleans Pelicans: 28-54
19 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 27-55
Dec. 1 Prediction: 25-57
Feb. 16 Prediction: 27-55
As you'd expect from a team that doesn't control its own first-round draft pick, the New Orleans Pelicans aren't packing it in. As a matter of fact, their four straight wins from Feb. 21-28 marked the best stretch this team has had since the middle of December, when it managed to string together five consecutive victories.
Before anyone gets too excited about the upside, those two runs account for almost half of New Orleans' full-season win total so far. This is still a team that spends most nights grossly overmatched.
Dejounte Murray is back and starting in his first action since tearing his Achilles last year, and he's looked a lot like his old self. His return means the Pels don't have to rely on rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears for quite as much secondary shot creation behind Zion Williamson, who recently snapped a career-best streak of 35 straight appearances.
New York Knicks: 53-29
20 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 53-29
Dec. 1 Prediction: 51-31
Feb. 16 Prediction: 53-29
Few teams have fluctuated less in these predictions than the New York Knicks, who've hung around in the low 50s since the jump. We've seen the team have ups and downs, marked by some spurts where it seems like the Jalen Brunson/Karl-Anthony Towns pick-and-roll defense will be fatally bad to others where the offense appears too good for anything else to matter.
The most impressive recent feather in New York's cap was a 114-89 win over the San Antonio Spurs on March 1. The Spurs were the hottest team in the league coming into Madison Square Garden, and the Knicks made sure they left with their lowest point total of the season.
New York has its flaws in secondary creation, Towns' defense and a lack of great wings behind OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. But it can win games in several different ways (we haven't even talked about Mitchell Robinson's offensive rebounding) and seems steady enough to land right where we originally predicted.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 62-20
21 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 62-20
Dec. 1 Prediction: 71-11
Feb. 16 Prediction: 62-20
The Thunder managed a 5-4 record in the nine games Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed with an abdominal injury, a mark made even more impressive because Jalen Williams was also out for all but two of those contests. The latter's continued absence due to a hamstring strain means OKC won't be at full strength for a while—particularly if SGA continues to get occasional nights off.
The reigning MVP played on Feb. 27 and March 1 but was on the bench against Chicago on March 3 due to the abdominal issue.
Even with key players sidelined, Oklahoma City is still hovering around a winning percentage of .750, which should be good enough to get to the 62-victory figure that has felt right for a while. Any potential coasting is probably off the table, as the Spurs continue to apply just enough pressure to keep the Thunder engaged in the fight for that No. 1 seed in the West.
Orlando Magic: 45-37
22 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 49-33
Dec. 1 Prediction: 51-31
Feb. 16 Prediction: 45-37
Anthony Black's nagging quad injury is a bigger problem than it would have been with a healthy Franz Wagner, but the German forward's ongoing struggle to return from an ankle injury makes the Magic look pretty thin on the wing.
Black's breakout season has helped mitigate Wagner's prolonged absence, but if the quad lingers, Tristan daSilva becomes a little too important.
Of course, if Jalen Suggs could stay in the lineup, everything would be fine. Orlando owns a plus-6.5 net rating whenever he's on the floor, and its top two most-used Suggs lineups are even better than that. Multiple bouts of injury are the price Suggs pays for his intense playing style, but he's helped the team bank enough wins to make that mid-40s prediction from last month look reasonable.
Orlando can get to 45 by closing the year with a 12-9 record. That should be doable as long as Black and Suggs play more often than not.
Philadelphia 76ers: 44-38
23 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 43-39
Dec. 1 Prediction: 41-41
Feb. 16 Prediction: 44-38
Joel Embiid finished the game on Feb. 26, helping the Philadelphia 76ers earn a win over the Miami Heat, but the oblique injury he suffered in the process is going to cost him some time. Though not believed to be serious, any new health issue takes on some extra import when Embiid is involved.
Philly's signature win since we last made record predictions was a 135-108 drubbing of the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Embiid missed that game as well. That's a pretty good illustration of his new status with the team: valuable, but not critical to success.
Maybe the Sixers will hold up fine without him, as long as Tyrese Maxey can keep racking up gaudy minute totals.
A mixed schedule that features the Jazz, Grizzlies and Nets alongside the Cavs and Pistons over the next couple of weeks should keep Philadelphia about five games over .500 through the middle of March. Hold that pace, and 44 wins will remain realistic.
Phoenix Suns: 45-37
24 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 26-56
Dec. 1 Prediction: 35-47
Feb. 16 Prediction: 47-35
Devin Booker is back, but Dillon Brooks' broken hand is going to cost him a few more weeks. That critical absence pairs with a defense that has been a little lucky in terms of opponent three-point shooting to make the Suns' chances at a high-40s win total a bit unrealistic.
It's still possible, and they've proved these predictions wrong at virtually every turn all season. But we need to acknowledge Brooks' importance to the operation by knocking a couple of victories off Phoenix's total.
That might seem too kind in light of the league-worst offensive rating the Suns managed in the first five games they played since our last set of predictions. At just 99.6 points scored per 100 possessions, the Suns (with Booker and Brooks) absolutely couldn't put the ball in the basket.
Phoenix should be motivated by the possibility of catching the Lakers at No. 6 in the West, but it'll have to prove the offense can function at less than full strength.
Portland Trail Blazers: 39-43
25 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 43-39
Dec. 1 Prediction: 40-42
Feb. 16 Prediction: 41-41
Deni Avdija has missed four straight games with a lingering back injury, the Blazers are dropping some seriously ugly losses (like the 34-point beatdown at the hands of the Hawks on March 1) and the offense is looking more listless than ever. That would normally be a recipe for a major slide in the standings, but the Blazers have 10 games remaining (counting Memphis on March 4) against tanking teams.
Take care of business in those, pick up a couple of wins against competition that's actually trying and 40 wins should be attainable.
Fortunately for the Blazers, they may not even need to get out of the high 30s to secure their Play-In spot. Currently 10th and unlikely to move much higher, Portland has zero fear of the No. 11 Grizzlies catching up. Memphis has packed it in to an extreme degree, which could allow the Blazers to play well below .500 the rest of the way without negative consequences in the standings.
Sacramento Kings: 18-64
26 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 33-49
Dec. 1 Prediction: 25-57
Feb. 16 Prediction: 17-65
That 17-65 prediction was looking pretty good until the Sacramento Kings went out and won twice in the span of four days, upping their win total to 14. Then again, this is a team that lost a franchise-record 16 games in a row earlier this year. We cannot rule out another slide of that length.
The worst defense in the league by an enormous margin, the Kings are the least threatening opponent around. Teams go into every game against Sacramento knowing they'll meet zero resistance on the perimeter and inside. Any wins the Kings amass between now and the end of the season will almost have to be the result of hot shooting nights because they're all but guaranteed to surrender at least 120 points.
The development of Maxime Raynaud and Nique Clifford will make the Kings worth watching for diehard fans down the stretch. But these guys are woefully uncompetitive otherwise and are still most likely to finish with fewer than 20 wins.
San Antonio Spurs: 58-24
27 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 48-34
Feb. 16 Prediction: 56-26
Though their 11-game winning streak ended after a season-low 89-point output in a loss at Madison Square Garden on March 1, the San Antonio Spurs are playing well enough to add another handful of wins to their projected total.
Third in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are essentially impossible to score against whenever Victor Wembanyama is in the game. Opponents are attempting 5.2 percent fewer shots at the rim with him on the court than off, an elite figure that still doesn't capture his full impact because transition layups still count in that calculus. Basically, Wemby's presence on the floor turns close-range shots into low-percentage jumpers or kickouts.
With a new starting lineup that features Julian Champagnie in Harrison Barnes' power forward spot, the Spurs are also scoring the ball better than they were earlier in the season. That lineup, which also includes De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Wemby, is putting up just over 120 points per 100 possessions. Paired with a smothering defense, that could be enough to crest the 60-win mark.
Toronto Raptors: 49-33
28 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 41-41
Dec. 1 Prediction: 48-34
Feb. 16 Prediction: 48-34
Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley are both shooting the ball extremely well since the break, and even Ja'Kobe Walter chipped in by hitting nearly half his threes in his first five games after the mid-season layoff. If the Toronto Raptors keep getting offensive efficiency like that, they have the defense necessary to push toward 50 wins.
Tempering expectations, Scottie Barnes' perimeter shot has deserted him in recent weeks. He still contributes gaudy block and steal totals and is a good bet to land on an All-NBA and All-Defensive team at season's end.
It'll be fascinating to see how the Raptors manage their lineups down the stretch. Quickley, Ingram, Barnes and RJ Barrett are locked-in starters, but the team gets major offensive punch from Jakob Poeltl at center while featuring far more stopping power when rookie Collin Murray-Boyles is on the floor as an undersized 5.
The latter's thumb injury could cost him time here and there, but that might just mean Sandro Mamukelashvili sees more action. He's been a quiet key to some of Toronto's best scoring units.
Utah Jazz: 20-62
29 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 17-65
Dec. 1 Prediction: 24-58
Feb. 16 Prediction: 20-62
They're already at 18 wins but haven't collected a victory since the All-Star break and probably won't play Lauri Markkanen (ankle, hip) at any point before next season. That 20-win prediction is still very much in play, and we shouldn't put anything past the only team tanking hard enough to draw a half-million-dollar fine from the league office.
Utah is only trying to prevent the conveyance of its top-eight-protected first rounder to the Thunder, but a little more ambitious losing could drop it into the bottom four and maximize its chance at the No. 1 overall pick.
If the Pacers, Kings, Nets or Wizards slip up and win a couple of contests, things could get very close.
Washington Wizards: 18-64
30 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 19-63
Dec. 1 Prediction: 18-64
Feb. 16 Prediction: 17-65
It was nice of the Washington Wizards to "explode" out of the break with back-to-back wins over the Pacers on Feb. 19 and 20, all but eliminating the possibility of our 17-win prediction coming true.
That should have been a lesson that even the most undermanned and shameless tankers can run into the right opponent and come out with a win, but we're not straying too far from our priors.
Alondes Williams, Jamir Watkins and Kadary Richmond are the only players in the Wizards' rotation to post positive plus-minus figures since the All-Star break, and you would have won a lot of bets if you predicted they'd be logging real minutes this season.
With more impactful players like Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George and Bub Carrington typically playing 25 minutes or fewer these days, Washington is engineering losses without full-on benchings.
With those guys as guidelines, Trae Young's minutes figure to be purely ceremonial.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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