Fresh 2015 MLB Contenders and Pretenders Post-Trade Deadline
With MLB's non-waiver trade deadline having come and gone on July 31, it's finally here. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the stretch run.
Which teams have the goods to make the most of it? Well, that's what we're here to discuss.
Though trades can still be made in August via MLB's waiver system, for the most part teams did all their wheeling and dealing ahead of the non-waiver deadline. Rosters are mostly set for the final two months of the season, which is our excuse to round up all the clubs that are going for it and run them through the "Contender or Pretender?" gauntlet.
For the sake of acknowledging the obvious, we will be omitting some teams that are technically in the discussion for the playoffs but aren't actually in the discussion. The Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers made their intentions clear by selling at the deadline, and at no point have the Arizona Diamondbacks given any indication that they consider themselves contenders.
But don't worry. We still have a whopping 17 teams to get to. We'll tackle the American League and National League individually, going in order from worst to best record.
Chicago White Sox
1 of 17
Record: 50-54
Deadline Acquisitions: None
The whole world—or at least the baseball portion of it—was expecting the White Sox to move Jeff Samardzija at the deadline and then hunker down for two more months of mediocrity.
Instead, the White Sox responded to a seven-game win streak that put them on the doorstep of .500 by holding on to Samardzija and everyone else. They're going for it, and what's only a 3.5-game deficit in the AL wild-card race says they're not crazy to do so.
And that's not the only reason they have to believe. The team's offense has come alive recently, as it entered Monday with 116 runs scored over the last month. Chicago's bullpen has also come alive, posting a 2.95 ERA in that same time frame.
The not-so-good news? That's that the White Sox's rotation is still underachieving, having posted a 4.17 ERA over the last month. There's also the reality that the seven-game win streak that put them in this discussion happened against the lowly Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox.
Things won't be quite as easy the rest of the way. Though 31 of Chicago's 58 remaining games are at home, the competition it's set to play is split right down the middle with 29 games each against teams above and below .500.
The White Sox should be able to stay in the AL wild-card race. But knowing that they're really only a good team when they play bad teams, the stars aren't exactly aligned for them to win anything.
Verdict: Pretender
Texas Rangers
2 of 17
Record: 52-53
Deadline Acquisitions: Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman
The Rangers were slowly descending into also-ran territory for a while there, but they've snapped out of it. They've won nine of their last 13 games to get to within two games of the AL's second wild-card spot and made one of the biggest splashes of the trade deadline when they acquired Hamels and Diekman.
Meanwhile, the further good news is that the Rangers are bucking their recent trend of being perpetually banged up. Pretty much all their core pieces are healthy, including Josh Hamilton and Martin Perez. And going forward, they'll play a remaining slate of 57 games that features 31 contests at home and 32 contests against clubs that are no better than .500.
But more than anything, it's Texas' pitching that raises doubts.
Yes, the big trade with the Phillies bolstered the team's staff, but Hamels and Diekman may not be enough. The Rangers are 15th in the AL in ERA for the season, and they entered the week with the league's worst ERA over the last 30 days at 6.36. Every Texas starter has been struggling, and its bullpen has been the same wreck it's been all season.
Like the White Sox, the Rangers should be able to stay in the race by virtue of the AL wild-card race's parity. But also like the White Sox, the Rangers only figure to go so far.
Verdict: Pretender
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 17
Record: 54-51
Deadline Acquisitions: Gerardo Parra, Junior Lake
The Orioles are heading into the stretch run hot, winning eight of their last 10 games to push them to 5.5 games back in the AL East and into a three-way tie for the AL's second wild-card spot. And thanks to their deadline activity, they're a better team now than they were before.
It's the addition of Parra that looks especially big. With his .323 average and .875 OPS, he's a monumental upgrade for a club that had been getting squat out of its left fielders. Given that the Orioles were one of the AL's top offensive teams before his arrival, they look even more dangerous now.
How their pitching is going to fare down the stretch, however, may be what decides their postseason fate. Baltimore's bullpen got thinner because of the trade of Tommy Hunter to the Chicago Cubs for Lake, and the last month has been a struggle for every Orioles starter not named Chris Tillman.
To boot, the Orioles' remaining schedule won't make things easy on them. Only 26 of their 57 games are at home, and they're due to play only 25 contests against losing teams.
This calls to attention how the Orioles have only gotten hot because they've beaten up on some light competition in the Rays, Tigers, Braves and A's. It's not going to be this easy down the stretch, and that may be their doom.
Verdict: Pretender
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Toronto Blue Jays
4 of 17
Record: 55-52
Deadline Acquisitions: Troy Tulowitzki, LaTroy Hawkins, David Price, Mark Lowe, Ben Revere
The Blue Jays looked like a merely OK team heading into the final week before the deadline. But after all they did in that last week, that's definitely a stance that needs to be reassessed.
When the Blue Jays added Tulowitzki, they added another weapon to an offense that was already MLB's best. When they added Price, they gave a starting rotation that was already rounding into form one of the best pitchers in baseball. And with Hawkins and Lowe joining Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna and others, Toronto's bullpen is now one of the best in the league.
As Jim Duquette wrote at MLB.com: "Simply put: This is a much deeper and more dynamic team than it was a week ago, which now appears on course for a wild-card spot and could even challenge the Yankees for the AL East crown."
All this action has already paid off, as the Blue Jays have won five of six to pull to within 5.5 games of the AL East lead and into a three-way tie for the AL's second wild-card spot. And going forward, Toronto's schedule doesn't look too bad. Of 55 remaining games, only 27 are at home, but 29 are against sub-.500 clubs.
So yes, the Blue Jays look poised to turn hype into reality in the end.
Verdict: Contender
Minnesota Twins
5 of 17
Record: 54-51
Deadline Acquisitions: Kevin Jepsen
The Twins didn't make many deadline improvements designed to see their surprise season through to October, but the addition of Jepsen is a good one. The hard fastball he used to carve out a 2.81 ERA with the Rays is a welcome addition to a bullpen that needed another power arm.
Exactly how much of a difference Jepsen can make, however, is a good question.
Though the Twins have been better recently, they're still not a particularly scary offensive team because of their relative shortage of above-average regulars. Their starting rotation has also been just OK all season and is showing no signs of breaking the trend.
But above all, the main reason to doubt the Twins is the reality that they've only been a good team for one month of the season. Take out their 20-7 showing in May, and they're a 34-44 ballclub.
Then there's Minnesota's remaining schedule, which will not make things easier. The Twins will get to play 31 games against sub-.500 teams but only 25 games at home. Given that they're 20-29 on the road this season, that looks like a problem.
Verdict: Pretender
Los Angeles Angels
6 of 17
Record: 56-49
Deadline Acquisitions: Conor Gillaspie, Shane Victorino, David DeJesus, David Murphy
Based on recent affairs, the Angels look like a sinking ship. They entered the week having lost six in a row and nine out of 10, and now they're down a starting pitcher thanks to C.J. Wilson's elbow injury.
But as bad as things look, they could be worse.
The Angels have been scoring plenty recently, as their 127 runs over the last 30 days checked in at second in MLB at the start of the week. Mike Trout has been the prime mover there, but he's had plenty of help and now has even more thanks to the club's dealings ahead of the deadline. In particular, Victorino, DeJesus and Murphy should upgrade a left field situation that's been plain bad all season long.
As for the Angels' pitching, the loss of Wilson does hurt. But it may hurt less if Jered Weaver and his injured hip can return to at least be a solid innings-eater. That's all the Angels need with Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago, Andrew Heaney and Matt Shoemaker all pitching well.
As for the Angels' remaining schedule, it's not ideal that only 27 of their 57 remaining games are at home. But the trade-off for that is 34 games against sub-.500 teams.
It'll be tough for the Angels to brush aside their three-game deficit to the Houston Astros in the AL West. But they hold the top AL wild-card spot for now and are a very good bet to at least hold on to that.
Verdict: Contender
Houston Astros
7 of 17
Record: 60-47
Deadline Acquisitions: Scott Kazmir, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers
The Astros sent a clear message that they meant to go for it when they acquired Kazmir a week ahead of the deadline. His addition meant adding an elite starter to a rotation that already featured an ace in Dallas Keuchel and strong supporting characters in Lance McCullers Jr. and Collin McHugh.
But the Astros didn't stop there. Their deal with the Milwaukee Brewers netted them even more rotation depth in the person of Fiers and a perfect fit for their offense in the person of Gomez. Houston's offense leads the AL in homers and stolen bases, and he can contribute in both departments.
Adding to all the good vibes in Houston is strong play since the All-Star break. The Astros have gone 11-5 in 16 contests to run their advantage in the AL West to three games over the Angels. And considering their schedule, they should be able to keep it up. Only 25 of their 55 remaining games are at home, but 35 are against sub-.500 clubs.
All told, it's hard to pinpoint reasons not to believe in the Astros.
Verdict: Contender
New York Yankees
8 of 17
Record: 59-45
Deadline Acquisitions: Dustin Ackley
The Yankees were linked to some big names leading up to the deadline, including David Price, Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. As such, that they only landed Ackley was a bit of a letdown.
It's also not the best look in light of the Yankees' starting pitching issues. Their rotation has been volatile all season, and things haven't calmed down recently. Yankees starters had a 4.35 ERA over the last month heading into the week, and the injury bug has taken another bite out of Michael Pineda (forearm).
One reason to be optimistic, however, is the call-up of Luis Severino. He was recently rated as the No. 17 prospect in MLB by Baseball America, and his abilities have his teammates excited about what he could mean for the club.
"We're very excited about it," said Alex Rodriguez of Severino's debut, via Erik Boland of Newsday. "Sometimes the best trades you make are the ones you don't make."
Mind you, Severino doesn't need to be great to save the Yankees rotation. The Yankees offense could do that all on its own. It's been outstanding all year and has only gotten better with an MLB-high 137 runs over the last month prior to Monday. At the heart of that are A-Rod and Mark Teixeira, who refuse to slow down.
As for their remaining schedule, that could also be worse. Of the team's 58 remaining games, 34 are at home, and 30 are against sub-.500 clubs.
Yes, the trade deadline could have gone better for the Yankees. But with a 5.5-game lead in the AL East to play with, they'll be fine.
Verdict: Contender
Kansas City Royals
9 of 17
Record: 62-42
Deadline Acquisitions: Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist
All right, look. We can make this simple: The Royals were already the AL's best team and by far the AL Central's best team, and then they went and added an elite ace in Cueto and the super-utilityman in Zobrist at the deadline.
That's all they needed to do. Cueto is the ace and the innings-eater the Royals needed to round out their rotation and save their bullpen, and Zobrist is the temporary fill-in they needed for the injured Alex Gordon (groin). When he returns in a few weeks, it will then be Zobrist's turn to supplant the struggling Omar Infante at second base.
All told, we're looking at a Royals team that has it all. And the way their schedule is shaping up, it figures to take a set of biblical plagues to keep them from October. Though only 29 of their remaining 58 games are at home, a staggering 40 of them are against sub-.500 clubs.
So yeah. In case you didn't already think so, the Royals are legit.
Verdict: Contender
San Diego Padres
10 of 17
Record: 52-54
Deadline Acquisitions: Marc Rzepczynski
One of the surprises of the deadline was the Padres' decision not to sell. Rather than dealing Justin Upton, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner, the Padres stood pat.
There appear to be quite a few ins and outs to this decision. But one of them, apparently, is a belief within the Padres that they're not done yet.
It's not as nuts as it sounds. The Padres are playing good baseball with eight wins in 10 games, and they have a favorable schedule with 37 of 56 remaining games coming against sub-.500 competition. And with Shields, Ross and Kennedy all pitching well, they stand a chance to take down some of the rougher competition they'll play along the way, too.
But it'll take a sustained hot streak to get the Padres into the thick of the National League wild-card race, as they're six games out of the second spot and chasing some tough competition. And though they have the pitching and the schedule for such a streak, they may not have the offense. Over the last month, the Padres have been one of MLB's least productive offensive teams.
All pitching and no offense? The Padres know all too well how that can work.
Verdict: Pretender
Washington Nationals
11 of 17
Record: 54-50
Deadline Acquisitions: Jonathan Papelbon
The Nationals made an impact move when they acquired Papelbon from the Phillies ahead of the deadline. Though he may not deserve the closer's role over Drew Storen, Washington's bullpen looks much deeper with him than it did without him.
But while the addition of Papelbon is nice, it now looks like a question of whether he'll be enough. The Nats have fallen on hard times with just a 6-11 record since the break that's cost them their lead in the NL East. And in keeping with season-long themes, neither their rotation nor their lineup looks as scary as it was supposed to be.
Still, it's hard for worry to become panic where the Nats are concerned. Their lineup is getting close to whole with Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth having returned from injuries. And Stephen Strasburg's looming return could be a difference-maker for a Nats rotation that really hasn't been the problem this season.
What's more, the scheduling gods aren't against the Nationals. They'll play 38 of their final 58 games against sub-.500 competition, and 32 of those games at home.
Are the Nats vulnerable? Yes. But doomed? Nah.
Verdict: Contender
New York Mets
12 of 17
Record: 56-50
Deadline Acquisitions: Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Yoenis Cespedes
Ever since an 11-game win streak early on in 2015, the Mets have had issues staying consistent. But if their activity at the deadline signaled anything, it's that they mean to change that.
In Johnson, Uribe and Cespedes, the Mets added depth and an impact bat to an offense that badly needed both. As a result, they now have an attack that may not be formidable but at least is semirespectable.
That figures to be good enough for the pitching the Mets are running out there these days. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jon Niese are all on fire. And Clippard should ensure that the Mets' solid bullpen doesn't feel the continued absence of Jenrry Mejia too badly.
Meanwhile, the Mets' remaining schedule could be a lot worse. Though they only play 25 of their remaining 56 games at their beloved (see their 38-18 home record) Citi Field, they do get to play 42 of those contests against sub-.500 competition.
As things stand, the Mets would get into the playoffs via the NL East title. Even if they can't manage that, they should at least contend for a wild-card spot.
Verdict: Contender
San Francisco Giants
13 of 17
Record: 57-48
Deadline Acquisitions: Mike Leake
The Giants could be in a better place right now. They've lost three out of four. They've had to put star second baseman Joe Panik on the disabled list. And as Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles was quick to note, their August schedule is a nightmare.
But while things could be better, they could also be a lot worse.
The Giants are only three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West and a half-game back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL wild-card race. And rough though their schedule may be, they have the goods to ensure they'll stay in both races.
With the addition of Leake, the Giants now have three solid starters in him, Madison Bumgarner and Chris Heston. Elsewhere, their bullpen has really come together over the last month. And even with the loss of Panik, the Giants offense is still better than advertised. It's been one of the best in the National League, and it figures to stay that way with just about all of San Francisco's regulars swinging hot bats these days.
It's not going to be easy for the Giants to stay in the race. But if any team has shown it can handle "not going to be easy" in recent years, it's the Giants.
Verdict: Contender
Chicago Cubs
14 of 17
Record: 57-47
Deadline Acquisitions: Tommy Hunter, Dan Haren
The Cubs find themselves in a pretty good spot. They entered the week having won six out of seven and with a deeper pitching staff after the additions of Hunter and Haren.
Mind you, questions still loom. Haren's home/road splits suggest he may not do much more than eat innings in the Cubs rotation. And on the flip side, the Cubs offense is still struggling to get on track. You wonder whether a move for a hitter would have been a good idea.
Despite these question marks, however, it's still hard to write off the Cubs.
Even if all he does is eat innings, Haren is better than what Chicago had before him in the No. 5 spot in its rotation. And though the Cubs may never be a dangerous offensive team this season, they should be better once Miguel Montero (thumb) returns behind the dish. Whereas that could have been Chicago's excuse to option Kyle Schwarber back to the minors, they've already decided otherwise.
“It would be hard to do that,” skipper Joe Maddon told Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “We want his bat in the lineup. He’s done a nice job behind the plate and shown versatility in the outfield.”
Also helping the Cubs' cause is the fact that their 58 remaining games include 30 contests at home and 32 against sub-.500 clubs. That's not a soft enough landing to make up their 9.5-game deficit in the NL Central, but it should ensure that they don't stray far from the half-game lead for the NL's second wild-card spot that they currently hold.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Dodgers
15 of 17
Record: 60-45
Deadline Acquisitions: Mat Latos, Alex Wood, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson
Considering that they were heavily linked to the likes of Johnny Cueto, David Price and Cole Hamels ahead of the trade deadline, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, that the money- and prospect-rich Dodgers walked away with none of them is a bit disappointing.
The one deal the Dodgers did make, however, was a good one.
Latos and Wood are solid additions to a rotation that already featured two elites in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, both of whom happen to be red-hot at the moment. Avilan and Johnson, meanwhile, are two welcome additions to a bullpen that's really struggled over the last month.
As such, the Dodgers should be fine as long as they score some runs over the final two months. And though they haven't done much of that lately, they'll be fine if Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig can heat up and if Justin Turner returns strong from his leg infection in a couple of weeks' time.
As for the Dodgers' remaining schedule, the bad news is that only 26 of their 57 games are at home. The good news is that 35 of the 57 are against sub-5.00 teams. That's a fair trade.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Pirates
16 of 17
Record: 61-43
Deadline Acquisitions: Aramis Ramirez, Joakim Soria, Mike Morse, J.A. Happ
The Pirates are another team that could be in a better state. They're just 8-8 since the All-Star break, and important pieces such as Josh Harrison (thumb), Jordy Mercer (leg) and A.J. Burnett (flexor strain) are all on the disabled list.
On the bright side, the Pirates did well to find fill-ins for two of those players. Ramirez will play third in place of Harrison, and Happ will fill in for Burnett in the rotation. Elsewhere, Soria adds depth to a bullpen that was already quite good, and Morse is an ideal platoon partner for Pedro Alvarez.
As for other matters, the Pirates can rest easy knowing that Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano seemingly can't be cooled. And though their offense isn't clicking on all cylinders, it continues to get strong stuff out of Andrew McCutchen, Jung Ho Kang and Starling Marte. It's also very encouraging to see Gregory Polanco coming around.
All told, things could be worse. That's good, because their 58 remaining games feature just 28 contests at home and 27 games against sub-.500 competition. The Pirates will need to live up to their strengths to hold strong and avoid falling out of the race.
And even if those strengths waver, they'd probably have to break entirely for the Pirates to fail entirely. With only a 5.5-game deficit in the NL Central and a four-game lead for the top wild-card spot, they have two possible avenues to October.
Verdict: Contender
St. Louis Cardinals
17 of 17
Record: 67-38
Deadline Acquisitions: Steve Cishek, Brandon Moss, Jonathan Broxton
You're not actually expecting Major League Baseball's best team to take a dive over the next two months, are you?
No? Good. Because that's really hard to see.
Things aren't perfect in Redbird Land, as the team now has two impact bats out for the long haul with Matt Holliday (quad strain) joining Matt Adams on the list of seriously injured Matts. But as far as red flags go...yeah, that's pretty much it.
The acquisition of Moss gives the Cardinals a strong power bat to help fill in for Holliday, and it helps that the St. Louis offense need not be dominant for the team to win. The Cardinals thrive off their pitching, and said pitching is still going as strong as ever with an MLB-best 2.76 ERA over the last month heading into Monday.
And with a healthy Jordan Walden soon to join new additions Cishek and Broxton in the relief corps, the Cardinals pitching staff will soon boast one of the deepest bullpens in the league.
As for St. Louis' remaining schedule, it's not so bad. Only 25 of its 57 remaining games are at home, but 33 are against sub-.500 competition.
It's hard to imagine any schedule sinking the Cardinals' playoff hopes, but that one sure won't.
Verdict: Contender
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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