Updated 2015-2016 MLB Free-Agency Predictions Post-Trade Deadline
While the baseball world is still trying to make sense of everything that transpired at this year's trade deadline and there's still plenty of baseball to be played, the start of free agency really isn't that far away.
And what a free-agent class this is shaping up to be.
From legit aces like Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and David Price to a second-tier starters including Scott Kazmir and Jeff Samardzija to a handful of impact bats in the outfield (Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton), there will be no shortage of talent available once the 2015 season ends.
While much will change between now and October, the players at the very top of the class are all but guaranteed to at least dip their toes in the free-agent waters to see what's out there.
Here's our take on where the cream of the crop will wind up signing, and for how much. Keep in mind these predictions are loosely based on what similar players have received in recent free-agent classes; they aren't just arbitrary figures pulled out of thin air.
That said, some are sure to be lower—or higher—than what the player ultimately signs for.
OF Yoenis Cespedes Signs with the Detroit Tigers
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Predicted Contract: Five years, $115 million
Unlike the other two outfielders who crack our list of the top available free agents, Yoenis Cespedes will be entering his age-30 season in 2016, while the others are still in their 20s. Fair or not, age is going to play a factor in Cespedes' earning power.
That said, he's still going to be paid handsomely. Power is in demand, and Cespedes has plenty of that. It also doesn't hurt that his former team, the Detroit Tigers, had every intention of re-signing him even after trading him to the New York Mets at the trade deadline, as USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports:
"When the #Tigers traded Cespedes to #Mets, they parted ways believing they'll be reunited again this winter."
Detroit may have sold at this year's deadline, but the Tigers remain a team that is built to win now—and a team without a viable alternative to replace the production it lost when it traded Cespedes. With an owner in Mike Ilitch who desperately wants to win, spending big on Cespedes is an easy call to make.
RHP Johnny Cueto Signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers
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Predicted Contract: Six years, $180 million
Just over a week into the regular season, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that Johnny Cueto was "seeking $200 million, or thereabouts" for his next contract. With nearly every big-market club in need of a starter this winter, he won't have trouble generating interest and high bids for his services.
It's not as if Cueto isn't deserving of a big payday. Among pitchers with at least 100 starts since 2011, he trails only Clayton Kershaw in ERA (2.52), ERA+ (153), WHIP (1.05) and opponent's OPS (.607). And it just so happens that Kershaw is going to be in need of a new running mate atop Los Angeles' rotation.
With heralded prospects like Jose De Leon and Julio Urias getting closer to the big leagues, there's a case to be made that the Dodgers don't need to spend big on another starting pitcher. But it'd be foolish and, quite frankly, unfair to expect either of those youngsters to effectively replace Zack Greinke.
Adding Cueto not only ensures that the Dodgers will have a legitimate front-line starter to pair with Kershaw, but also it gives the team added depth and insurance against injury, something the club scrambled to find at this year's trade deadline.
RHP Zack Greinke Signs with the Boston Red Sox
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Predicted Contract: Four years, $125 million
What do Walter Johnson, Dutch Leonard and Greg Maddux all have in common? If you said they're all enshrined in the Hall of Fame, you'd be wrong. Leonard is not a member of baseball's most exclusive fraternity.
No, that threesome contains the only pitchers in baseball history to post a single-season ERA+ equal to or greater than the 259 mark that Zack Greinke has produced thus far in 2015. And his timing couldn't be better, putting together a historically dominant season in his walk year.
Anyone who doubts Greinke will opt out of the final three years and $77 million left on his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers hasn't been paying attention to the going rate for top-of-the-rotation arms recently. It's something that Greinke himself acknowledged would play a part in his ultimate decision.
"What happens with (Jon) Lester and (Max) Scherzer will say a lot," Greinke told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times last July. Well Lester got a six-year, $155 million deal from the Chicago Cubs, while Scherzer landed a seven-year, $210 million pact from the Washington Nationals.
Greinke, who will be 32 years old on Opening Day 2016, is faced with the reality that this will be his last big multi-year deal.
A team like the Boston Red Sox can't afford to make the same mistake it made last winter, foregoing a legitimate ace in favor of a handful of mid-level arms. Even with some young talent on the roster (Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Blake Swihart), this is a team built to win now.
Greinke gives them their best chance to do just that.
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RF Jason Heyward Re-Signs with the St. Louis Cardinals
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Predicted Contract: 10 years, $225 million
Jason Heyward, a $200 million player? You bet.
Sure, he hasn't broken out at the plate as many expected he would, and his defense, while still superb, isn't rated quite as highly by advanced metrics as it has been in the past.
But at age 26, Heyward would be hitting the open market with nearly his entire prime still ahead of him and a chance of finally developing into the kind of dynamic run producer many believe he's capable of becoming.
As FanGraphs' Dave Cameron wrote shortly after Heyward was traded from Atlanta to St. Louis, the Cardinals had to have made that deal knowing this day was coming.
"The market doesn’t pay for defense quite the same way it pays for power, but it has paid plenty of similar players enough money that $200 million for Heyward is probably the starting point in negotiations.
Are the Cardinals prepared to go there? I wouldn’t be surprised if they did. I don’t think they gave up four years of Shelby Miller with no plan to even try and keep Heyward, and they know he’s looking at a huge contract in a year if they don’t get him signed.
"
The simple fact is St. Louis can't afford to lose him, and the Cardinals are in a position to back-load this deal, with only Matt Carpenter and Adam Wainwright under contract in 2018.
LHP Scott Kazmir Signs with the Detroit Tigers
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Predicted Contract: Five years, $115 million
As mentioned when we looked at Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit is built to win now, and there's no way for the Tigers to do that without adding reinforcements to the rotation.
Scott Kazmir may not be as "sexy" a name as Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke or David Price, but the southpaw, who will be entering his age-32 season, has been one of baseball's elite starters in 2015, pitching to an American League-leading 2.10 ERA.
Adding Kazmir to a rotation that already features Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander not only gives Detroit some much needed depth and stability, but also it will allow the Tigers to be less reliant on (and take some pressure off) unproven arms like Buck Farmer, Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris.
LHP David Price Signs with the Chicago Cubs
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Predicted Contract: Six years, $185 million
I know what you're thinking: "Rick, you have Price going to the Cubs because of Joe Maddon." And you'd be partially correct, though the lefty ace himself says his bespectacled former manager will have no bearing on where he ultimately signs.
"Wherever I play baseball next year, it's not going to be because of a manager," Price told the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer in June. But Price also made it clear in that interview that he's looking for a team that offers him two things: a chance to win and a chance to have fun doing it.
“They’re very young,” Price told Wittemyer of the Cubs, who he believes are going to win for a while. “I feel like it’s very similar to when I first came up with Tampa, just a bunch of young guys going out there and having fun. That’s what it’s all about. Obviously, winning is what it’s about. But you’ve got to be able to have fun."
While other teams might present him with more lucrative offers, Price has no way of knowing whether the clubhouse atmosphere is what he's looking for. He knows that the culture in Chicago's clubhouse is exactly what he's looking for—and that's worth whatever money he might ultimately leave on the table.
RHP Jeff Samardzija Signs with the New York Yankees
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Predicted Contract: Five years, $135 million
While the New York Yankees have avoided signing pitchers in their 30s to lucrative, long-term deals recently, Jeff Samardzija isn't your typical 30-something starter. Having spent the first few years of his career as a reliever, his arm has far less wear and tear on it than the other starters on the market.
That he appears to be less of a risk to break down toward the end of a new deal than the other 30-something starters on the market convinces the New York Yankees to bring him aboard.
Sure, Samardzija's strikeout rate is down (6.7 K/9), his ERA is up (4.35) and he's more of a No. 2 starter than an ace. But the Yankees desperately need to add another experienced, reliable, innings-eating starter to their rotation, and Samardzija fits that description perfectly.
LF Justin Upton Signs with the Los Angeles Angels
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Predicted Contract: Seven years, $145 million
By nearly every measure, including OPS (.562) and FanGraphs' wRC+ metric (61), no team has gotten less production out of left field than the Los Angeles Angels.
While the club was burnt by the last high-profile slugging outfielder it signed (Josh Hamilton), the Angels can't go into 2016 without adding another big bat to the lineup to help Albert Pujols and Mike Trout carry the load.
Justin Upton is that bat.
Sure, his defense is awful and he's in the midst of posting a career-worst .247/.321/.429 slash line, but he's still hitting for power (18 home runs) and is still in the midst of his prime—2016 will be Upton's age-28 season.
That should put any concerns owner Arte Moreno has about making another costly mistake, as he did with Hamilton, who was past his prime and entering his age-32 season when he signed with the Angels, to rest.
C Matt Wieters Re-Signs with the Baltimore Orioles
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Predicted Contract: Five years, $80 million
Whether it's Russell Martin's five-year, $82 million deal or Brian McCann's five-year, $85 million pact, super-agent Scott Boras is going to point to one (or both) as the starting point in negotiations for his client, Matt Wieters.
While nobody disputes Wieters' standing as the top catcher available in the upcoming free-agent class, Boras will be hard-pressed to land a more lucrative deal for the 30-year-old backstop.
Yes, Wieters has shown no ill-effects from the Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2014 season and a chunk of 2015, and he's still regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. But he's no longer an elite pitch framer and according to Baseball Prospectus, hasn't been one in years.
That said, he's also invaluable to the Baltimore Orioles, a team that simply cannot afford to let him walk as a free agent. Sure, breaking the bank on Wieters might make it difficult for the club to keep its other two high-profile free agents—Wei-Yin Chen and Chris Davis—in the fold, but they're more easily replaceable.
RHP Jordan Zimmermann Signs with the San Francisco Giants
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Predicted Contract: Six years, $165 million
Jordan Zimmermann hasn't been nearly as dominant in 2015 as he had been over the previous three seasons, when he pitched to a combined 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but the 29-year-old has still put up quality numbers for Washington in 2015 (3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).
But those numbers knock him down to the second tier of starters after Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and David Price, making him a bit more affordable for a team like the San Francisco Giants, who will be losing Tim Hudson to retirement and potentially both Mike Leake and Tim Lincecum to free agency.
With Matt Cain and Jake Peavy both looking like they're on the downsides of their careers, adding a dynamic starter like Zimmermann to the rotation, where he'd form a formidable one-two punch with Madison Bumgarner, is a no-brainer for the Giants.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through games of August 3. All non-predicted contract information is courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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