UFC 324 Main Card B/R Staff Predictions

The wait is nearly over.

After over a month without a UFC card, the promotion will finally return to our lives this Saturday with UFC 324, a hotly anticipated show out of Las Vegas.

The main event will see lightweight legend Justin Gaethje make what could be his last bid for UFC gold opposite surging contender Paddy Pimblett. The pair will battle for the interim lightweight belt, with the winner expected to take on undisputed champ Ilia Topuria later this year.

The card originally had a spectacular Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison co-main event, but that fell through when the latter got injured. With that shakeup, a high-stakes bantamweight bout between Sean O'Malley and Song Yadong was elevated to the co-headlining spot.

The rest of the main card is nothing but meaningful fights, which is something of a rarity these days.

The middle bout of the broadcast will see heavyweight contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta look to jump into title contention at the expense of knockout machine Derrick Lewis.

Before we get to that, Natalia Silva and Rose Namajunas will clash in a clear No. 1 Contender fight in the women's flyweight division, and Arnold Allen and Jean Silva will collide in a clash of top featherweight contenders.

Every fight on the main card could easily go either way. Here's how the B/R combat sports team sees it all shaking out.

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett

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Nick Akerman: Paddy Pimblett is unbeaten in seven fights since his UFC debut in 2021, and people still question how good he is.

His dominance against Michael Chandler should leave few doubters, but now he's up against Justin Gaethje, whose skills are perhaps embellished by his biggest fans due to his ability to withstand punishment.

I think he's going to have to flex that strength once more against Pimblett. It's no secret what the English fighter will try to do. He wants Gaethje on the mat, neutralising those strikes that have made him such a popular fighter. Rafael Fiziev was able to get some joy here, and it'll take a focused game plan to stop the Scouser locking in the type of rag-dolling we saw against Chandler.

This is a decent matchup for Pimblett. He's deceptively strong, attacks from odd angles and possesses incredible self-belief.

The UFC is criticised for failing to produce many big-name stars in the post-Conor McGregor/Jon Jones era. Pimblett is as close as it's got, and he should prove it again in Vegas.

Prediction: Pimblett by split decision, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's not the full-fledged title, but it's still a gigantic opportunity for Pimblett to prove he's the real deal. I've always believed it, and it seems he has picked up some passengers on the bandwagon since beating King Green and Michael Chandler in his last two fights.

Gaethje is a human highlight reel, but he's also made for "The Baddy" and the kid is ready to show out. Book it.

Prediction: Pimblett by submission, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: I can't argue with anything Nick or Lyle said.

Gaethje obviously has ways to win this fight, and another knockout win wouldn't shock me, but I've got Pimblett winning this one.

He is longer, stronger, younger, and always improving, while Gaethje is showing faint signs of decline and isn't knocking people out at the rate he used to.

As for the method of victory? It's hard to ignore that Gaethje was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira in his two previous bids for undisputed gold. Against another aggressive submission specialist in Pimblett, I see history repeating itself.

Looks like this one is unanimous.

Prediction: Pimblett by submission, Rd. 2

Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong

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Nick Akerman: I kind of feel the same way about O'Malley as I do with Pimblet.

A lot of people approach their fights with focus on how the next one could be a big loss. I think that's due to love-it-or-hate-it personalities and the cockiness the guys exude. It overlooks their skills quite significantly.

And with that said, I think Suga rolls through this one without too many issues. Song Yadong left plenty of opportunities for Henry Cejudo to get his jab off in February 2025, and Petr Yan landed at a decent pace before that.

O'Malley heads into this on the dreaded two-fight skid. Dropping a third to Song, a well-rounded guy who doesn't match up to the best, could signal a shift in what both can expect from the remainder of their careers. I can't see it happening just yet.

Prediction: O'Malley by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Welcome (back) to the "Suga Show." Hard to believe it's been about two years since O'Malley logged his only successful title defense at UFC 299.

The most interesting question heading into the weekend is how much of that guy is left and how much was taken away by Merab Dvalishvili.

By the end of the weekend, at least with Yadong as an opponent, the answer will be "a lot."

Prediction: O'Malley by TKO, Rd. 1 

Tom Taylor: There is so much on the line for O'Malley in this fight.

If he wins, he'll take a big step toward erasing the memory of his two recent championship losses to Merab Dvalishvili. He might even set himself up for a rematch with new bantamweight champ Petr Yan, who he beat with a narrow decision several years back.

If he loses, though, we can safely say his title dreams are done for the time being. It's not that Song is a bad fighter—far from it—but he's not the level of guy you can lose to and remain in the title conversation.

Luckily for O'Malley, this is as close to a tailor-made matchup as he'll get. While Song's power and wrestling are interesting X-factors, the most important advantages will be on the American's side.

Most notably, he is the far longer, more technical striker, with impeccable shot selection and countering ability. Meanwhile, Song tends to leave himself a bit open when he closes distance.

Song's chin seems to be made of steel, so I don't think O'Malley will stop him, but I do expect the Chinese fighter to walk into crackling counters for most of the fight— with blood consequences. That'll be more than enough to sway the judges.

Prediction: O'Malley by unanimous decision

Derrick Lewis vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

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Nick Akerman: This is a super fun fight. It's a big moment for Waldo, who needs to chop Lewis' legs. His pace should be a big factor in this one.

Lewis is a litmus test in many ways, you've got to fight his tomfoolery as much as his skills, but my gut is telling me Cortes-Acosta is equipped to do some damage and look good while doing so.

Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by majority decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Nine wins in 11 fights makes Cortes-Acosta a genuine player at heavyweight and gives him a chance to put a big name on the resume in the form of Lewis, who's won two straight but still looks as much like the guy who lost five of seven from 2021 to 2023.

Cortes-Acosta is taller, younger and ought to be brimming with confidence. If he fights that way, it's a career-definer for him.

Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Looks like I'm the outlier on this one.

Cortes-Acosta has been pretty impressive lately, with big wins over solid opposition in Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev.

It's not exactly hard to stand out at heavyweight, but those wins have made him one of the division's top contenders, and with a win on Saturday, he will be right in the mix for a title shot. However, I think he loses some momentum against Lewis.

Lewis is getting up there in age at 40, but his recent knockout wins over Rodrigo Nascimento and Tallison Teixeira proved he's still capable of wiping out lower-level opposition.

I also can't shake the memory of Cortes-Acosta getting badly hurt in his win over Delija—even if the sequence was set up by an eye poke.

It's possible Cortes-Acosta leg kicks and boxes his way to a decision, but I think he'll end up walking into a Lewis uppercut or hook in close, and it will be nap time from there.

Prediction: Lewis by KO, Rd. 1

Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas

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Nick Akerman: Thug Rose fans, look away. There's potential for this to be a rough night.

Natalia Silva feels like a particularly tough matchup at this weight, largely because her pace and relentlessness is built to expose a Namajunas who isn't the devastating fighter she once was.

Rose's weapons feel slightly numbed at flyweight and Silva's speed could force her to clam up.

Silva is building an excellent list of names for her resume. Alexa Grasso and Jessica Andrade have fallen in her last two fights. She'll add to that against Namajunas.

Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision.

Lyle Fitzsimmons: So, do you like the streaking 28-year-old with the less-than-championship-level opposition or the 30-something with strawweight belts on the resume who's only gone 3-2 since climbing to flyweight? 

As much as Thug Rose has done for the game since her arrival in the Octagon more than a decade ago, our answer is youth.

Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision 

Tom Taylor: This one feels pretty straightforward to me.

Silva has youth and momentum on her side, and her recent victory over Grasso proved she is ready for the highest level of opposition.

Namajunas, on the other hand, has been entirely unspectacular as a flyweight. While I concede it would be kind of cool to see her earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko, mainly based on their championship legacies, I don't see it happening.

Silva is too good. She wins this one decisively, and locks up her own fight with Shevchenko—another fight I'm very interested in seeing.

Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva

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Nick Akerman: Ah, the wanderer returns. Arnold Allen last fought in 2024 and only has one win on his record since 2022, making him an overlooked entity these days.

His return against Jean Silva has the potential to be the fight of the night. This should be a striking clinic; both men are tremendous on the feet, fight with pace and bad intentions.

The pair feel perfectly matched to put on a bloody classic: Silva's one-punch knockout ability against Allen's survivability, or Silva's tendency to lose concentration against Allen's methodical piece 'em up. It's a meaningful battle for both guys, who need a win.

It's difficult to call, but I think Allen will catch fire like Diego Lopes did, finding a way to beat Silva once he's worked him out.

Prediction: Allen by majority decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: As odd as it sounds, the 29-year-old Brazilian from the "Fighting Nerds" gym has a bit in common with the 31-year-old Brit.

Both began their UFC stays with long streaks—10 straight for Allen, five for Silva—then encountered some adversity when climbing the competition ladder. So that leaves them here in a crossroads bout.

Says here that Silva is closer to the real deal. 

Prediction: Silva by TKO, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: I agree with Nick's assertion that this is a very evenly matched fight with a high potential for entertainment. I also agree that Allen should walk away with the win.

Silva is violent and exciting, and he has the skills to add another highlight reel KO to his resume. However, Arnold is very durable, amply more experienced, and certainly more well-rounded.

In matchups between flashy knockout artists and versatile tacticians, I almost always go with the latter.

Allen takes some punishment, but he mixes up his grappling and striking well enough to win a decision.

Prediction: Allen by unanimous decision