The Worst-to-First Index for the 2015 NFL Season

The NFL might have predictable contenders and pretenders from year to year, but there are always a couple of surprises. After all, teams don't just wish upon a star every offseason.

Outside the Dallas Cowboys, of course.

Occasionally we'll see a team climb from the division depths to win it. Sometimes a key injury held the team down. Others saw a quick turnaround after a regime change or a particularly great offseason.

What chances do last year's cellar dwellers have of making such a turnaround? Let's take a look at each division's last-place team and whether the team can climb the ladder quickly. Call it a "worst-to-first" index—a number scale from one to 10 based on coaching changes, personnel upgrades and strength of schedule.

AFC East: New York Jets

Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

The king is weary and weakened. Who will wrest the crown from his head?

Not since Bernard Pollard knifed the hearts of Patriots fans with a helmet to Tom Brady’s knee in 2008 has New England been so vulnerable in the AFC East. Even then, Matt Cassel was able to lead Bill Belichick’s squad to an impressive 11-5 showing, one that somehow fell short of a postseason berth.

This year, the Patriots face adversity on and off the field. They have thrived in situations like this before. But the division hasn’t been this strong in decades.

Few teams improved more this offseason than New England’s hated rival, the New York Jets. Handcuffed by a porous roster, thanks to the front office's years of poor decision-making, the Jets sank to the bottom of the division last season. 

Now star cornerback Darrelle Revis has rejoined the fold, defecting from those embattled Patriots and luring Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist with him to turn a weak secondary into a strength.

Were it not for former Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson's offseason shenanigans, the defense as a whole would be the league's best. As it is, it’ll still be damn good.

That wasn’t the only thing the Jets did to close the gap with their foes—the offense got a boost with the addition of Brandon Marshall at receiver and Jermey Parnell at right tackle. Though not nearly as dramatic as the defensive makeover, shoring up quarterback Geno Smith’s offensive line and pass-catching talent could have him surprising the league this year.

The Jets won’t just have the Patriots to contend with for the division crown, however—the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins also improved. At least one good team is going home in December; it’s shaping up to be a fun year in the AFC East.

Worst-to-First Index: 9

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Ken Whisenhunt's head coaching skills are questionable, as is the decision-making of the Tennessee Titans front office for keeping him after a disastrous 2014 campaign. Better to give him more than a year to turn things around, perhaps, but keeping Whisenhunt could have lasting repercussions.

For starters, his penchant for airing it out could ruin Tennessee's No. 2 overall pick. Just ask Zach Mettenberger, who was knocked out for the year with a shoulder injury thanks to his coach's inflexibility. Paul Kuharsky lambasted Whisenhunt over at ESPN.com after the injury last year:

"

But at a certain point -- given an already-injured quarterback and an offensive line minus three starters and down to a third-string right tackle who joined the team five days ago -- a coach has to part from his methods, no matter how strongly he's married to them.

Whisenhunt is a rigid guy, and that served him well at the peak of his six-year run in Arizona. It is not serving him well now.

"

Can we trust him to minimize the risk to Marcus Mariota, who will probably expose himself to injury risk with his rushing ability?

Let's pretend Mariota dodges injury and shines as a rookie. What chance does he have of outperforming Andrew Luck all season? Is there any reasonable chance the Titans defense will be better than Houston's? Heck, the Jaguars have a better chance at the division with all the improvements they've made.

It'll be a tough slog for the Titans this year, even if they do improve with better quarterback play.

Worst-to-First Index: 2

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Browns may be the AFC North's perennial doormats, but last season offered some hope to the Dawg Pound faithful. After all, who could have expected them to be in playoff contention with five games to go?

Alas, the Cleveland curse struck, and the Browns wilted in the face of stiffer competition. They lost those final five games, crashing back to earth and to the bottom of the division. Still, a 7-9 record under new head coach Mike Pettine should be cause for optimism in the City by the Lake, right?

Let’s avoid the supernatural and assume Cleveland is like any other city. Through poor management and misfortune, the Browns haven’t been able to field a competitive team. That much seemed to change last season, despite the team languishing in quarterback purgatory.

Speaking of which, the quarterback situation has been horrific for the past 15 years, and it’s still in bad shape in the hands of 35-year-old journeyman Josh McCown and reformed party boy Johnny Manziel. This does not sound like a recipe for success.

No matter. A strong defense and run game can buoy you to the top, right? Just ask the Seattle Seahawks. 

The trouble is, Cleveland’s defense is nowhere near elite. True, the secondary is in good shape, and we should see some better play from the front seven, despite losing pass-rusher Jabaal Sheard to free agency. But this is a defensive unit that ranked ninth in scoring last season, despite facing a relatively soft schedule.

And there is the real rub—the Browns face a brutal 2015 slate. Whereas opponents had a .503 winning percentage in 2014, Cleveland's 2015 opponents had a combined .543 winning percentage last season. That’s beside perennial powerhouses Pittsburgh and Baltimore along with a good Cincinnati squad.

Worst-to-First Index: 2

AFC West: Oakland Raiders

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Could the AFC West be wide-open this season? 

Peyton Manning looked like a man haunted by Father Time at the end of last season. Philip Rivers faltered a bit himself. Alex Smith is, well, Alex Smith.

Derek Carr wasn't exactly good as a rookie—stop with the statistical nonsense, you don't get accolades for throwing the ball a lot—but he heads into his sophomore season with some big improvements to his supporting cast, including No. 4 overall pick Amari Cooper.

Quarterbacks aren't everything, though. What about the rest of the team?

The Oakland Raiders gave up the most points in the league last season, a testament to their tough schedule. It doesn't get much easier in 2015—Oakland faces the seventh-toughest strength of schedule.

Oakland attempted to beef up that side of the ball by signing defensive tackle Dan Williams and drafting lineman Mario Edwards Jr. this year, and young guns like cornerback DJ Hayden and pass-rusher Khalil Mack should continue to improve, too.

The trouble with all this is that the division isn't wide-open in the sense that the awful NFC South was last season. On the contrary, the Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos should all be jockeying for the division crown and playoff position once more this year, leaving the Raiders fighting for scraps.

Barring a Herculean effort by Carr, the Raiders will be lucky to get above .500. 

Worst-to-First Index: 2

NFC East: Washington

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

New general manager. Second-year head coach. Same old owner?

Washington hasn't had much success since Dan Snyder bought his childhood team, much of which has been directly attributable to his obstinate whimsy decisions. Snyder has receded to the shadows in recent years, however, and there may be something brewing in the nation's capital.

Scot McCloughan was Washington's best hire in years, and he got to work rebuilding a squad bereft of talent on both sides of the ball. There weren't any flashy splashes like the Albert Haynesworths of yesteryear, however—just solid additions on both sides of the ball.

The defensive front got the most tender loving care this offseason with the arrival of solid defensive linemen Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, Ricky Jean-Francois and Jerrell Powe. If Junior Galette can keep his head on straight, he will have bolstered the pass rush along with rookie Preston Smith.

Add safety Dashon Goldson and cornerback Chris Culliver to the mix in the secondary and we have a recipe for real improvement on that side of the ball.

Now Robert Griffin III needs to keep the demons at bay, and we could be in for a surprise in Washington.

Of course, none of that might matter in the NFC East, where Washington faces an uphill battle against the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, the past two division winners. Of course, those same Cowboys were unexpected division champs last year, so anything is certainly possible.

Worst-to-First Index: 4

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

This is doable. Just ask Andrew Luck.

The Indianapolis Colts went from 2-14 to the AFC South crown in the blink of an eye, thanks to their No. 1 overall pick. He did it with an awful supporting cast to boot.

Jameis Winston will attempt to replicate that sort of success with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While he may not be a generational talent like Luck was, he may just pull off the feat.

He has a bit more help than Luck ostensibly did a couple of years ago, namely from one Gerald McCoy on the defensive side. The big defensive tackle is motivated to get out of the cellar and into the playoffs, per the Associated Press (via Fox Sports):

"

When I was young, I was allowed to be young. ... I'm not there anymore. I'm going into my sixth year, and I truly believe this team will only go as far as I go.

When you have a dominant guy in the middle, it helps everything out around him, which is our defense. Most of the teams that are winning have a great defense. 'That's another reason why I had to come in in great shape. There's really no more talking (that) needs to be done. I'm going into my sixth year and haven't been in the playoffs. It's like, enough is enough. I definitely feel the urgency ... to get it done.'

"

The AFC South was brutal last season, the biggest reason why the Bucs have the third-easiest strength of schedule heading into 2015. That figure is a bit of a lie considering there were no winning clubs in the division last year. 

But, hey, those teams were bad for a reason, and none of them improved more dramatically than the Buccaneers did on paper this offseason. 

Worst-to-First Index: 7

NFC North: Chicago Bears

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Marc Trestman has been banished, replaced by proven postseason pilgrim John Fox. Things are looking up in Chicago, right?

Perhaps. But they aren't going to win the NFC North.

Not as long as Jay Cutler is jockeying with Matthew Stafford to avoid being the worst quarterback in the division. Not while that defense is nursing a hangover after an awful couple of years. 

Most importantly, not while MVP Aaron Rodgers pilots the Green Bay Packers to another division championship. There is no reason to believe Green Bay won't be among the league's best teams all things being equal.

The Bears will be far from equals.

(Incidentally, Teddy Bridgewater is legitimately the second-best quarterback in the division. Stafford and Cutler have never lived up to their potential, and Bridgewater showed out in the second half of his rookie campaign.)

Fox has a tall task ahead of him. He will lead the Bears back to respectability, but it won't be an overnight affair.

Worst-to-First Index: 3

NFC West: St. Louis Rams

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

What hath Jeff Fisher wrought?

Mediocrity, that's what. The league's most overrated head coach is back for yet another season in St. Louis despite getting the Rams nowhere. 

At least there has been some improvements to some parts of the team. That defense is built to be nasty, particularly along the defensive line. But what did it buy the St. Louis Rams? They finished 6-10, after all, reprising the last-place finish in the NFC West.

Fisher attempted to remedy that by trading oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford for overrated Nick Foles, a move that very well could blow up in his face and finally exile him.

For argument's sake, however, let's say Foles isn't just the product of a Chip Kelly fever dream. Can the Rams overtake the mighty Seattle Seahawks? Better yet, can they simply get past the similarly improving Arizona Cardinals?

A strong defense gives them a fighting chance, but Fisher's history belies the potential in St. Louis.

Worst-to-First Index: 5

Follow @AlexMiglio