Guaranteed Week 1 NFL Locks Courtesy of VincentManning.com

I am 1-0 so far for the 2009 NFL season thanks to the Titans great effort against the Steelers three days ago. Obviously it is not easy to pick against the spread in week 1, as there are always going to be overhyped teams that reveal their flaws right away to go along with underrated teams that come away with surprising wins. However, if there is one guy that can have a big week one, its me. Lets get off the ball like Adam Snyder and hit these picks. They are based on the Bodog spread.
NFL Record as of 9/12/09: 1-0
NFL Week 1 Locks (in bold):

Miami (+4) at Atlanta
Kansas City at Baltimore (-13)
Philadelphia (-3) at Carolina
Denver at Cincinnati (-5)
Minnesota (-4.5) at Cleveland
New York Jets at Houston (-5)
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)
Detroit at New Orleans (-14)
Dallas (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona
Washington (+6.5) at New York Giants
St. Louis at Seattle (-8)
Chicago at Green Bay (-4)
Buffalo at New England (-11)
San Diego at Oakland (+10)

Analysis:
1) Miami (+4) at Atlanta: This should be a close game, which benefits Miami because they are being given 4 points. I expect them to make one or two more big plays than Atlanta on their way to a win.
2) Kansas City at Baltimore (-13): I expect the Ravens defense to pretty much shut down Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (if he starts) or Brody Croyle, while Baltimore should run and throw effectively on offense against the Chiefs D.
3) Philadelphia (-3) at Carolina: Philadelphia's goanna stop the run early and Asante Samuel's going to get a pick or two as Philadelphia beats the Panthers rather comfortably.
4) Denver at Cincinnati (-5): Cincinnati should make a lot of plays through the error en route to a win, though its going to be imperative that they contain Denver on the ground. I think they'll play just good enough on defense to get the win and the cover.
5) Minnesota (-4.5) at Cleveland: I don't think Cleveland will be able to run the ball well enough against the Vikings' stout D-line to keep this game close.
6) New York Jets at Houston (-4.5): I don't know if the Texans will make the playoffs this year, but they are certainly better than the Jets, and in particular I look for Andre Johnson to have a huge game against the Jets rather average secondary.
7) Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7): The Colts have quietly reinvigorated their receiving core, and I've soured a lot on Jacksonville's defense after their play last year.
8) Detroit at New Orleans (-14): Detroit is not going to have any answers for the Saints' passing attack. New Orleans should get out to a big lead and then use that to call defensive plays that will put their secondary in zones that will allow them to jump a lot of routes, leading to them picking off Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford anywhere from 1-to-3 times.
9) Dallas (-5) at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is going to take a huge step back this year, while on the other side the Cowboys defense should be much improved from last year's disappointing squad and running back Felix Jones should be this year's version of Chris Johnson so long as he stays healthy.
10) San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona: The Niners have the cornerbacks to cover Cardinals receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, and almost beat Arizona last year on the road. They'll also dominate time of possession via a heavy dose of carries by Frank Gore.
11) Washington (+6.5) at New York: Redskins defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth should allow for Jim Zorn's team to contain the Giants running game, and Jason Campbell should make enough plays through the air to win this game, or at least get a cover.
12) St. Louis at Seattle (-8): The Seahawks should be able to win this game by a wide margin so long as Matt Hasselback looks for wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh throughout the game.
13) Chicago at Green Bay (-4): I like Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to exploit Chicago's weak secondary in this game.
14) Buffalo at New England (-11): I don't like the big spread, but I'm not going to let Tom Brady burn me at the same time. I'll take New England to use their offense to win this game, though the Bills should be able to score a lot too due to the Patriots weak secondary. Still, I think New England should be able to beat Buffalo by at least a touchdown and two field goals.
15) San Diego at Oakland (+10): I think Oakland should make enough plays to cover. Obviously this is a risky pick, as Oakland got whipped by a similar offensive team to the Chargers in the Saints a couple of weeks ago, and were an embarassment in the Monday Night Opener last year, but I think Darren McFadden will have a big game and keep this thing close, and I have even more hope due to the fact that the Raiders were competitive against San Diego in both games against them last year.

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