NASCAR Fantasy 2015: The Importance of Non-Chase Drivers in DFS
The NASCAR Sprint Cup teams are preparing for the last month of the season before the Chase begins in September. Depending on where the team is in the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings will determine the strategy they will use in the month of August. Fantasy teams need to realize which drivers are racing for wins, which are racing for points and which will throw caution to the wind to make it to Victory Lane.
Races Until the Chase
There are only six races left in the regular season. Most of these races have been dominated by the drivers who already have a secure spot in the playoffs. The Chase format expanded to 16 teams in 2014. Last year A.J. Allmendinger (Watkins Glenn) and Kasey Kahne (Atlanta) were able to win their first race of the season and secure their place the Chase in the month of August.
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The excitement will heat up as the teams without a spot in the Chase try make their way to Victory Lane in these final races of the regular season. It would be wise to take a chance with some of these drivers in your DraftKings contest.
| Track | Date | Last Winner |
| Pocono Raceway | Sunday, Aug. 2 / 1:30 PM ET | Martin Truex Jr. |
| Watkins Glen Raceway | Sunday, Aug. 9 / 2:00 PM ET | A.J. Allmendinger |
| Michigan International Speedway | Sunday, Aug. 16 / 2:30 PM ET | Kurt Busch |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | Saturday, Aug. 22 / 7:30 PM ET | Matt Kenseth |
| Darlington Raceway | Sunday, Sep. 6 / 7:00 PM ET | Kurt Busch |
| Richmond International Raceway | Saturday, Sep. 12 / 7:30 PM ET | Kurt Busch |
Chase Drivers
There are currently 10 teams with a spot in the Chase. The field will soon expand to 11 as soon as Kyle Busch earns a spot in the top 30. He is on a hot streak unlike any driver since Jimmie Johnson won four races in a row in 2007. The question of will Busch make the Chase has now become when Busch will make the Chase? It should happen after the race at Pocono.
The drivers with a secure spot in the Chase usually run the last month of the season differently than the drivers without a place in the playoffs. Each driver earns three bonus points for each win they earn during the season. The only thing that matters to these drivers is winning the race.
Drivers with a spot in the Chase are usually the best picks for the DraftKings contest, but they can be risky as well. Kevin Harvick could lead the most of the laps, but if he gambles on fuel and runs out with one lap to go, his top-five finish could result in a finish outside the top 25.
The races at Pocono, Watkins Glen and Michigan usually come down to fuel mileage. The Toyotas and Fords have been able make longer runs on a tank of gas. Keep that in mind when you select drivers from Chevy teams such as Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr. or Harvick.
Some of these teams may use the last six races as a test session for the Chase. The No. 48 team is well known for using this strategy. Johnson is always a highly priced driver in DraftKings. Although he is very good at the tracks in August, he is too risky of a pick because fantasy teams will not know the motivation of the team for each race.
| Pos. | Driver | Wins | Points |
| 1 | Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 675 |
| 2 | Kevin Harvick | 2 | 777 |
| 3 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 2 | 677 |
| 4 | Kurt Busch | 2 | 612 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 1 | 708 |
| 6 | Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 668 |
| 7 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 638 |
| 8 | Matt Kenseth | 1 | 615 |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin | 1 | 591 |
| 10 | Carl Edwards | 1 | 519 |
| 11. | *Kyle Busch | 4 | *23 points out of 30th place |
Drivers On the Bubble
The drivers on the bubble of making the Chase will be important picks the last month of the regular season. These drivers need the points to earn a spot in the playoffs, but they will go after the win if they think there is a realistic chance of getting to Victory Lane.
Three drivers who will play it safe in August are Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman. They have enough points where they can make the Chase without a win. These drivers are the safest picks in the DraftKings contest in the next six races. They will do what it takes to finish in the top 10, but not risk a poor finish to get a win.
Kasey Kahne is notorious for winning races just before the regular season ends. Do not be surprised to see him win one of the final six races. He would be a good pick for most of the races in August.
The last two drivers provide more risk to your contest, but they are still drivers who will be racing for points. Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer will probably need a win to earn a spot in the Chase. They still need to race for points in case one of the drivers ahead of them stumbles. Bowyer would be an excellent pick for the races at Watkins Glen, Richmond or Bristol.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 11 | Jamie McMurray | 602 |
| 12 | Jeff Gordon | 575 |
| 13 | Ryan Newman | 563 |
| 14 | Kasey Kahne | 558 |
| 15 | Paul Menard | 558 |
| 16 | Clint Bowyer | 538 |
Long-Shot Drivers
The drivers outside the top 16 in the point standings will not be able to rely on quality finishes to make their way in the Chase. These drivers will most likely need to win a race in order to secure a spot in the playoffs.
A.J. Allmendinger is the best choice on the list to earn a win in August. He won the race last year at Watkins Glen, and he has four straight top-10 finishes at the track. Allmendinger must be used for your contest on the road course.
Greg Biffle will have a chance to win the race at Michigan. It is a long shot, but Biffle has won four races at the track, and he will mostly likely gamble in the pits since this race usually comes down to fuel strategy. Biffle would be a good pick for your contest in this race.
If Kyle Larson is to win a race before the Chase begins it better be this week at Pocono. Larson has competed in three races at the Tricky Triangle and scored three top-11 finishes. His odds are not good, but the No. 42 team must take every chance possible to get Larson his first NASCAR Sprint Cup win.
The rest of the drivers on the list would need a miracle to win a race. These drivers are good, cheap value picks in DraftKings, but do not rely on them to win you your contest.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 17 | Aric Almirola | 508 |
| 18 | Greg Biffle | 462 |
| 19 | Austin Dillon | 453 |
| 20 | Kyle Larson | 452 |
| 21 | Casey Mears | 451 |
| 22 | Danica Patrick | 433 |
| 23 | A.J. Allmendinger | 423 |
| 24 | David Ragan | 412 |
| 25 | Sam Hornish Jr. | 385 |
Pick to Win Last 6 Races
Pocono: Joey Logano
Watkins Glen: A.J. Allmendinger
Michigan: Carl Edwards
Bristol: Kyle Busch
Darlington: Kevin Harvick
Richmond: Brad Keselowski
The strategy for winning your DraftKings contest in August is a different from the strategy used earlier in the season or in the Chase. This is the perfect time to start building your team with the lower-priced drivers who need to finish up front to make the playoffs. Stacking up on drivers with nothing more than a win to race for could be a risky strategy.
Advanced stats courtesy Racing-Reference.Info.
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR.
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