Cameron Payne Should Get Immediate Opportunity to Thrive with OKC Thunder
Cameron Payne is very much an unknown quantity at this point. After a college career in relative obscurity at Murray State, a fractured finger robbed the Oklahoma City Thunder's first-round pick of a chance to show people what he's about at summer league.
It's incredibly challenging to forecast how rookies handle the transition to the NBA, but that problem is exacerbated in Payne's case since we haven't seen him competing against top-tier talent much.
Payne is the rare lottery pick who finds himself on a championship contender, so he won't be handed minutes on this squad. The Thunder depth chart is loaded, so he will need to prove worthy of playing time—something that's far from a given.
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Expecting a rookie to play major minutes is unrealistic in most cases, but there are a few factors that suggest Payne will be able to contribute as a role player at some point during his rookie campaign.
Payne Has NBA-Ready Skills
Payne is not an otherworldly athlete, but he possesses a number of skills that should translate to the NBA almost immediately. For starters, his shooting stroke (38 percent on three-pointers last year) gives him one avenue to playing time on a Thunder team that needs spacing. He's more than just a standstill shooter, however.
As the focal point of the Murray State offense, Payne created a ton of his own offense and showed a propensity for knocking down jumpers off the dribble. The mid-major star connected on a strong 46 percent of his two-point jump shots, but the most impressive part is that 82 percent of those looks were unassisted, according to Hoop-Math.
That skill bodes well for Payne's transition to the NBA. Defenders are more alert and athletic in the pros, resulting in quicker closeouts and fewer uncontested threes. In those situations, the rookie will be able to put the ball on the deck and create his own offense if necessary.
Even though he's not a strong finisher at the rim, he's already developed a lethal floater that will be useful against NBA bigs. Kevin O'Connor of SB Nation did a tremendous job breaking down Payne's film and discussed his wiliness in the paint:
"Payne has to rely on his craftiness and feel for the game to score. But that's why he has worked so hard on maximizing his strengths.
Payne's trademark move is the mid-range floater. It's so fast, and you can't block it. This is what separates many of the great point guards from the good ones, and Payne knows that. ...
Players like [Tony] Parker, Chris Paul and Mike Conley have taken their games to the next level because of their floaters. When they can't get to the cup or finish over bigger defenders, they toss it up with their soft touch and it tends to go in. Shots like this take years of experience and practice to master. It's arguably Payne's best weapon already.
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His ability to score with the jump shot and in the paint allow him to excel in the pick-and-roll—the bedrock of any NBA offense. ESPN.com's Chad Ford called him "perhaps the best pick-and-roll guard in the draft," and that expertise should help him see the floor quicker than most rookie point guards.
Payne can score in the pick-and-roll, but he's also a phenomenal passer on those plays. He can hit the roll man from various angles, but he's patient enough not to force those passes. In college, he was very willing to pull it back out and go right into another pick-and-roll if he didn't like the preliminary look. He also displayed tremendous poise when teams trapped him on ball screens, and he was very comfortable making the right play in those situations.
All of these aspects point to the single-most appealing quality of Payne's game: intelligence. Even though he'll be just 21 years old by the start of the season, the rookie showed a basketball IQ well beyond his years in college—something his former coach greatly admired, according to Jake Fischer of Sports Illustrated:
"In his 17 years of coaching, the 40-year-old [Steve Prohm, Payne's head coach at Murray State] has worked with dozens of point guards. Payne has always stood out from the rest. "It's not even close," Prohm said. "He's got the best IQ of any kid I've coached." Payne's saw plays develop within Prohm's scheme he had never imagined. At 18 years old, Payne ran the offense with the poise of a senior.
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That maturity, more than anything else, is a good sign for Payne's prospects of getting on the court in his debut season. There are areas where the rookie will struggle, of course, but he has enough tools to contribute on this Thunder team.
Personnel Factors
In addition to Payne's talents, the circumstances in OKC open the door for potential playing time. Former head coach Scott Brooks was generally reluctant to give his young guys much of a leash. Those players (Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones, for example) were hardly convincing in limited minutes, but Brooks seemed inclined to yank them quickly and rely on his veterans instead.
We don't know what to expect from head coach Billy Donovan's transition to the NBA, but at Florida, he was very flexible and willing to experiment. He seems more likely to let Payne play through any growing pains than Brooks was.
Even if we leave aside speculation about Donovan's tendencies, the way the roster is built means there will be opportunities to seize playing time if he's ready. Russell Westbrook is the unquestioned starter and will obviously take up most of the point guard minutes, but OKC should be taking every opportunity to reduce his workload if possible.
Westbrook may seem to get stronger after every injury, but the Thunder can't afford to lose him for a significant chunk of time this season. With all the roster fluctuation last year, Westbrook shouldered an inhuman burden and led the league in usage rate, using a whopping 38 percent of OKC's possessions.
To keep his minutes in check, Coach Donovan will have to rely more on his backup point guard. D.J. Augustin will likely be the first off the bench to start the season, but Payne could force his way into those minutes. Even if Augustin holds down the fort as Westbrook's primary backup, Payne could still get some run since dual-point guard lineups are a concept worth exploring.
Given the collection of one-way players lining the shooting guard ranks, the best backcourt combinations in certain scenarios could very well contain two point guards. This was the case when Reggie Jackson donned a Thunder jersey, but Payne's shooting and ability to work off the ball make him a much better fit alongside Westbrook than Jackson ever was. Not only is Payne a much better spot-up shooter, but he exhibited great footwork when using off-ball screens at Murray State to free himself for open looks.
Furthermore, with Augustin's contract expiring after the 2015-16 season, it would behoove the Thunder to give Payne playing time so they have a better idea of whether or not they need to sign a backup point guard in free agency next summer.
Predicting rookie performance is a crapshoot, but Cameron Payne should have opportunities to get on the court if he's prepared for the challenge. There will be mistakes and struggles, but he has the potential to impact a playoff series (in a minor role) more significantly than Augustin.
OKC should make a concerted effort to bring him along during his rookie year even if it means sacrificing some wins during the regular season.
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