Predicting the NFL Leader in Every Major Statistical Category in 2015

As long as statistics remain the lifeblood of the NFL, the megastars of the league will be expected to put up mega-numbers every season. 

Quarterbacks need yards, touchdowns and efficiency. Running backs and receivers require the yards and scores. Defenders want sacks, tackles and interceptions. The leaders in these categories are generally considered the best in the game. 

In the following slides, we will attempt to predict the league leader in each of the major statistical categories for the 2015 season. Some will be obvious, others not as much. Regardless, these are the number producers to watch this season.

Passing Yards: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

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A resurgent Roethlisberger tied Drew Brees for the NFL lead in passing yards last season (4,952), but with Brees losing several receiving options (see: Jimmy Graham) and transitioning into what seems like a new era for the Saints offense, Big Ben has a great opportunity to throw for the most yards in 2015.

He hopes all those yards will mean lots of points. 

“We want to start fast and we want to be able to put 30 points on the board in every game,” said Roethlisberger, via Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. 

The Steelers averaged a franchise-record 27.2 points per game last season, and Roethlisberger set new career highs in passing yards per game (310) and passing touchdowns (32, tied). The Steelers have the receiving depth and talent—plus a dynamic pass-catching back in Le'Veon Bell—to help him threaten both figures. Roethlisberger should post huge volume numbers for what could be the highest-scoring offense in football.  

Honorable mention: Brees, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan

Passer Rating: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

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Rodgers is the easy pick here, even if Tony Romo beat him by a fraction of a point to win the passer rating crown last season. While Rodgers hasn't led the league in passer rating since 2012, he does own NFL records for career passer rating (106.0), single-season passer rating (122.5, 2011) and most consecutive seasons with a passer rating over 100.0 (six, 2009-14).

This tweet from Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk pretty much sums up Rodgers' historical dominance of the passer rating stat. Among the major features of passer rating—completion percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt and interception percentage—Rodgers ranks in the top three all-time for all four statistics. 

One hurdle for Rodgers could be the removal of Mike McCarthy as the offense's primary play-caller, but the Packers head coach doesn't expect a seismic shift for his quarterback.

"His world is not going to change a whole lot, and that's really the most important," McCarthy said, via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com. 

In this world, Rodgers remains the undisputed passer rating king—both historically and in the present. 

Honorable mention: Romo, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady

Passing Touchdowns: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

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No selection was more difficult to make, as a number of quarterbacks possess a legitimate argument for being the most likely to throw the most touchdowns in 2015. 

That list includes Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for 32 scores in 2015 and has touchdown machine Martavis Bryant entering his second season. He could easily threaten 40 touchdowns. 

There's also Aaron Rodgers, who many consider to be the best quarterback in the game. He tossed 38 touchdowns last season, and Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams give him a dynamic receiving trio for 2015.

It'd be silly to forget Peyton Manning, who hasn't thrown fewer than 37 touchdowns since arriving in Denver. Maybe he'll decline, or maybe he'll match last season's 39 scores and reclaim the touchdown crown. 

There's even Tony Romo, who led the NFL in touchdown percentage last season. He will likely need to throw a touch more without DeMarco Murray in 2015, and anything's possible when throwing to Dez Bryant behind Dallas' dominant offensive line. 

In the end, Luck still wins out. His 40 scores led the league in 2014, and he's now adding Andre Johnson and first-round pick Phillip Dorsett to a receiving group that already includes T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief. It's certainly possible he'll throw less this season with Frank Gore in town (he threw 616 times in 2014), but Luck has the individual talent and the supporting talent around him to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns for a second straight season. 

Honorable mention: Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Manning, Romo, Eli Manning, Drew Brees

Rushing Yards: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

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For most backs at or around the age of 30, 1,000 rushing yards in a single season is a lofty goal. Leading the league in rushing yards? Forget about it. 

Most backs are not like Adrian Peterson. 

The Vikings will return their generationally great running back for the 2015 season, fresh off a tumultuous year in which Peterson played only one game. His difficult 12 months likely would have represented the end of the line for some older backs. For Peterson, a year to recharge the batteries and build some internal motivation—plus adding the comfort and confidence of a newly restructured deal—might just lead to another monster season. 

The ever-confident Peterson told Mike Wobschall of the team's official site that his goal remains 2,500 rushing yards, a mark no running back has ever hit during a single season. 

There's a lot to like about Peterson playing in a Norv Turner offense, especially with Teddy Bridgewater running the operation and Mike Wallace on board to add a vertical element. While 2,500 yards is never going to happen (he'd need to average more than 150 yards per game), few should be surprised if he goes over 1,600 yards and wins another rushing crown. 

Honorable mention: DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Le'Veon Bell

Receiving Yards: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

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Despite missing one game and playing hurt in several others, Jones still managed to finish the 2014 season with the league's third-most receiving yards (1,593). He finished second in the NFL in receiving yards per game (106.2) and led the league in catches of more than 20 yards (31), a showcase to just how deadly he is when on the field.

There's obvious risk in predicting Jones here, mostly because of his spotty injury history. Over four NFL seasons, Jones has played in all 16 games just once (2012).

Considering his competition, he'll need a full season to win the receiving crown in 2015. Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green and Odell Beckham (plus a host of others) all have a legitimate chance to produce the most yards next season. 

There's just something about Jones' finish to the 2014 season—plus the incentive of entering a contract year—that gives the Falcons star receiver the slight edge. Over his last four games last season, Jones caught 32 passes for 613 yards—which equates to 128 receptions and 2,452 yards over a 16-game season. 

And don't worry about a holdout. 

"I'm not going to hold out for anything," Jones said, via Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. "My teammates need me. I'm being selfish if I'm not here and doing what I need to do."

Honorable mention: Brown, Bryant, Thomas, Johnson, Nelson, Green, Beckham

Yards from Scrimmage: Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Le'Veon Bell's suspension was reduced from three games to two on Tuesday. That extra game may be the difference in the yards-from-scrimmage race. 

Bell totaled 2,215 yards from scrimmage in 16 games last season, good for an average of 138.4 yards per game (only DeMarco Murray averaged more). If Bell can continue that pace in 2015, 14 games would still net him close to 2,000 yards from scrimmage (only Bell and Murray cracked that number last season). 

Bell is a strong bet to rack up yards because he's equally dangerous running the football (4.7 yards per carry in 2014) as he is as a receiver (83 catches, 10.3 yards per catch). And the Steelers feed him the football in both areas (373 total touches).

Offensive coordinator Todd Haley confirmed that will continue in 2015.

"Obviously, Le’Veon is our guy so he’s going to get the majority of the touches on all downs—first, second and third downs," Haley said, via Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. 

Touches equal yards with Bell, and lots of them. 

Honorable mention: Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy

Total Touchdowns: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

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This was a difficult pick, as a host of players could realistically score the most touchdowns next season. For example: While Marshawn Lynch led the league with 17 last season, 15 different receivers or tight ends and eight other running backs scored double-digit touchdowns. 

The argument for Charles is based on past production. His 33 total touchdowns lead the NFL over the last two seasons, thanks mostly to his scoring versatility. He's third in rushing touchdowns (21) and first in receiving touchdowns (12) among running backs since 2013. 

Charles is also healthy entering 2015. Last season, he had just 246 touches due to a number of lingering injuries. 

"I was frustrated more last season as I’ve ever been because of all of those injuries," Charles said, via Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. "I was frustrated because I didn’t feel my body was right the whole season."

A healthy Charles is a good bet to find the end zone more than any other player next season. 

Honorable mention: Lynch, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Dez Bryant, Rob Gronkowski

Sacks: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans

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Watt is like the Aaron Rodgers of sacks. He might not lead the NFL every season—his 20.5 in 2014 finished second to Justin Houston's 22—but he's the most talented pass-rusher in the game and the best bet to win a sack title every season. 

The numbers for Watt are mind-bending. 

His 51.5 sacks since 2012 are the most in the NFL, and 8.5 more than Justin Houston's 43.0. According to the official Twitter account of the Texans public relations department, Watt also led the NFL in quarterback hits with 50 last season (Carlos Dunlap finished second with 28), per the Texans' PR Twitter account, and his 139 quarterback hits since 2012 are far and away the most in the league. 

Per Pro Football Focus, Watt has led the NFL in pass-rushing grade during every season since 2012. 

Bottom line: Watt is unquestionably the best pass-rusher in the game. He's probably one of the best ever at disrupting the quarterback. He'll be the front-runner to lead the NFL in sacks every season for at least the next five years. 

Honorable mention: Houston, Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Cam Wake

Tackles: Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers

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There was a strong temptation to go with Lavonte David or DeAndre Levy here, but the numbers for Kuechly don't lie. The heart of the Panthers defense has led the NFL in combined tackles during two of the last three seasons, including in 2014—when he amassed 153. His average since entering the league in 2012 is an NFL-high 157.7 per year. 

Tackles can be a somewhat meaningless stat, but Kuechly's tackles also have impact. According to Pro Football Focus, Kuechly led all linebackers in "stops," or tackles constituting an offensive failure, with 81 last season. 

The reasons for his dominance aren't difficult to ascertain. 

"He's smart, real smart," Philadelphia Eagles running back Darren Sproles said in NFL Network's Top 100 Players of 2015 segment. "And he's always around the football. Always."

Honorable mention: David, Levy, C.J. Mosley, Demario Davis

Interceptions: Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns

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Interceptions are among the most difficult statistics to predict. Case in point: No player has led the NFL in interceptions in back-to-back years since Everson Walls in 1981 and 1982. Players such as Ed Reed and Charles Woodson have been consistently great at intercepting passes, but neither led the league for two straight seasons. 

This reality made finding a clear-cut answer burdensome. Glover Quin's seven interceptions led the NFL last season, while Richard Sherman's 12 top the league over the last two seasons. Sherman still remains a strong bet to take the title, but teams now actively avoid throwing his direction. Quin's seven interceptions in 2014 nearly doubled his career total. 

Why not Joe Haden? He has just seven picks over the last two seasons, but he also leads the league in passes defended since 2013. Haden clearly knows how to get into position and get his hands on the football. He just needs to finish a few more intercepting plays.

Pure luck can be a big part of creating picks (see: overthrows, tipped passes). Maybe luck will tilt Haden's way in 2015.  

Honorable mentions: Sherman, Desmond Trufant, Casey Hayward, Tashaun Gipson