6 MLB Winter Meetings 2025 Storylines That Will Shape Next Season
Of the 25 players on the original B/R top free agents big board, five have found new teams to this point.
Brandon Woodruff (No. 22), Trent Grisham (No. 17) and Shota Imanaga (No. 16) accepted qualifying offers, while Devin Williams (No. 19) signed a three-year deal with the New York Mets, and Dylan Cease (No. 9) landed with the Blue Jays on a seven-season pact.
Still, that leaves 20 remaining from that original list, some others who just missed the top 25 and a slew of trade candidates available.
With the MLB Winter Meetings underway in Orlando, Florida, here are six storylines to keep an eye on.
Where Will Kyle Schwarber Land?
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Kyle Schwarber is a free agent at the perfect time.
Despite being a DH entering his age-33 season, he is coming off of the finest season of his career, having led the NL with 56 home runs and the entire sport with 132 RBI. He finished runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in NL MVP voting, after never having previously finished higher than 15th.
What's more, Schwarber is the rare player who actually seems to be getting better as he approaches his mid-30s. Consider the difference in his numbers from his first two seasons to the last couple of what turned out to be a comically team-friendly four-year, $79 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
2022-2023: .207 batting average, 93 home runs, 198 RBI, .822 OPS
2024-2025: .244 batting average, 94 home runs, 236 RBI, .890 OPS
Priority No. 1 for the Phillies seems to be retaining the three-time All-Star, who not only has been their best hitter the last two seasons but is also an important clubhouse presence.
However, while there are reservations about whether they'll actually spend the money necessary to reel Schwarber in, the Cincinnati Reds do seem to be a real player for the Middletown, Ohio native:
Last weekend, ESPN's Jeff Passan—while also mentioning the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets as possible fits—said he would "be surprised" if Schwarber hasn't made his decision by the end of the winter meetings.
The guess here is that team will be the Phillies, but if the Reds make a competitive offer, it's hard to turn down the possibility of playing for the team you envisioned yourself on as a kid.
Do The Tigers Seriously Entertain Trading Tarik Skubal?
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Since the Cy Young Award was first introduced in 1956, the only two players to win it four years in a row are Greg Maddux (1992-1995) and Randy Johnson (1999-2002).
No one has ever won it three years in a row in the American League, but Tarik Skubal will have a chance to change that in 2026. Well, maybe he will.
The 29-year-old is entering his final year of arbitration, meaning he will be a free agent after the season.
Because the Scott Boras client is almost certain to test free agency and sign a megadeal, there's a thought that the Tigers might be wise to trade baseball's best pitcher to maximize their return now, rather than losing him in free agency next offseason for nothing more than draft-pick compensation.
That framing is letting the Tigers off the hook. Under former owner Mike Ilitch, the club would have made a competitive offer to try to keep Skubal. According to Spotrac, the Tigers had the fourth-highest payroll in baseball in 2016.
Will current owner Christopher Ilitch will open up his checkbook to keep the pitcher, who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory?
With that said, Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris might not be able to be so idealistic. If ownership has indicated it isn't likely to cut a $400 million check next winter to re-sign Skubal, he probably does need to at least listen to trade inquiries.
It's not realistic to think Skubal will be traded midseason, because the Tigers will almost certainly be in playoff contention. So, it's now or never.
That's not to say the Tigers should trade Skubal this offseason. They probably shouldn't. One year of him could mean he makes history, while helping the team to a deep playoff run.
It would take an earth-shattering package to even consider moving on from Skubal. But don't be shocked if someone puts together a trade package that at least tempts Detroit, because Skubal is that desirable.
What Team Will Be Hell-Bent On Signing Kyle Tucker?
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Kyle Tucker is the top free agent this offseason on pretty much every countdown. Still, it's unclear which teams feel like they need to sign him, as they have previously with best-available free agents like Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
That's in part because the Chicago Cubs seem content to let Tucker walk after just one season.
Whatever questions we had with Ilitch can be doubled here in regards to Tom Ricketts. Chicago is a top-five media market. Wrigley Field is a tourist attraction that prints money. Why are the Cubs punting on a 29-year-old who is one of the best outfielders in baseball?
Tucker isn't quite as attractive of a free agent as he once appeared. The Excel Sports Management client posted just a .738 OPS after the All-Star break.
Three years after winning a Gold Glove, he posted minus-one defensive runs saved and minus-two outs above average in right field. Granted, he played through a hairline fracture in his right hand from early June through the end of the season, and it's hardly uncommon for outfielders to be very cautious in the field in a contract year to avoid injury.
It's possible Tucker is better cast as the No. 2 on a great team, as opposed to the face of the franchise. Trea Turner got an 11-year, $300 million deal with a similar profile three winters ago.
B/R projected Tucker would get a 10-year, $360 million deal with an opt-out available for him after the fourth season, and that still checks out. It's just a matter of where it will come.
Perhaps it will be the defending AL champion Blue Jays, with FanSided's Robert Murray noting on Dec. 3 that Tucker had visited their spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida. as he considers his options.
The strange thing for Tucker is even though he's the No. 1 free agent available, he might be a backup option for a few of the usual suspects.
If the Phillies lose Schwarber, maybe they'll look toward Tucker. If the Yankees lose Cody Bellinger, maybe they'll pivot to Tucker. If Tucker is willing to take a shorter deal, maybe the Dodgers will be involved. Right now, though, he probably isn't the top priority for any of those clubs.
Who knows, maybe Tucker's hometown Tampa Bay Rays—now under the ownership of Patrick Zalupski—will make a major play for him.
It's just strange for there to be no real feel on who will try to sign the top free agent heading into the winter meetings. Perhaps when everyone leaves Orlando, we'll have a better idea of where Tucker will end up next.
Can the Pirates or Marlins Sign an Impact Free Agent?
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It's fair to be skeptical about reports that the Pittsburgh Pirates and/or Miami Marlins could be spenders this offseason. It's even fairer to be cynical about their motivations for potentially doing so a year before what's likely to be a prolonged lockout.
Even if the Pirates and/or Marlins are willing to spend, free agents with options are probably going to choose to go elsewhere.
Why would they believe that even if the Bucs and Fish spend this offseason, they are committed to doing so in the long run? Why would any free agent signing a multi-year deal think the Pirates and Marlins will hold onto NL Cy Young Award winners Paul Skenes and Sandy Alcantara for the terms of their deal?
It's why, even if the Pirates were interested in Josh Naylor and have interest in Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, it's unlikely they lure in a veteran who will have other suitors more certain to be playoff contenders.
B/R projected Jorge Polanco—our No. 25 free agent—to sign with the Pirates. They could guarantee him a second season, or give him a little extra money that others might be hesitant to. That would improve their team for 2026, but also leave them still shy of having a playoff roster.
The Marlins went 35-32 after the All-Star break, finishing third in the NL East in Clayton McCullough's first season on the job. If they hold onto both Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, they could have a really good rotation in 2026.
Reuniting with Marcell Ozuna or adding a veteran bat like Rhys Hoskins or Ryan O'Hearn could help make the Marlins a fringe playoff team next year. As could signing a veteran arm for the back end of their bullpen, with MLB.com's Jon Morosi previously noting the Marlins have interest in Pete Fairbanks.
A year before the collective bargaining agreement expires, Pittsburgh and Miami will likely be more active than usual. The Marlins could probably even make themselves into a contender.
Any moves this offseason, though, shouldn't change long-term concerns about whether Bruce Sherman in Miami and Bob Nutting in Pittsburgh actually care about building consistent playoff teams.
How Badly Do the Mets Want To Keep Their Guys?
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A year ago, it felt like Pete Alonso wanted the Mets more than they wanted him. Now the franchise's all-time home run king, he might not be as inclined to wait on the team this winter, even if that's still the one he would pick.
Exactly what the market will look like for Alonso is unclear, because he's someone who doesn't seem to be properly valued around the sport.
He rebounded from a relative down year in 2024 that saw him post a .788 OPS to finish 2025 with an .871 OPS. Since the start of the 2022 season, only Aaron Judge, Schwarber and Ohtani have hit more home runs.
In a sport where it suddenly feels like there's a lack of impact right-handed hitters, teams should be jumping at the chance to give Alonso a five-year deal, even if he's reaching a point where he should be a DH at least on a part-time basis.
And yet, Joel Sherman of The New York Post had this insight in a recent story:
"An AL official said, "I don't think length is out there for Alonso." A veteran agent offered, 'No one is giving him five years. He would be lucky to get four, and that will likely come with a lower AAV [average annual value] and a whopper of deferred dollars.'"
Schwarber is coming off of a better season and perhaps is more regarded for his clubhouse leadership, but if he's going to get a five-year deal entering his age-33 season, why wouldn't Alonso—who turned 31 Sunday—also get half a decade? Why would he have to scratch and claw for four seasons?
Whatever the final price ends up being for Alonso, it will be interesting to see if the Mets meet it. Alonso feels like someone who should be a lifetime Met. But president of baseball operations David Stearns hasn't acted that way over the last 12 or so months.
Meanwhile, the Mets already got on the board last week by signing Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million contract that includes deferrals. They are also hopeful of bringing back Edwin Díaz, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN.
But until a down year with the Yankees last season, Williams was as good of a reliever as the sport had. If Díaz is insistent on getting a second deal in excess of $100 million as he enters his age-32 season, the Mets have the leverage to walk away.
However, there is a business perspective to consider here. Díaz is the rare closer that people actually come to see, hoping to get an opportunity to be part of his trumpet-blaring entrance to the mound at Citi Field. Is Steve Cohen going to give up that draw over an extra contractual year?
Also, if Díaz signs somewhere else, it won't be with a club such as the Los Angeles Angels or Athletics that would be easy for the Mets to ignore. Do they want to have Díaz come in for the save as a member of the Yankees during the Subway Series, though? What about having him close them out in a playoff matchup with the Dodgers?
In any event, the Mets are arguably going to be the most interesting team to watch during the winter meetings.
How Does The Sport View Munetaka Murakami?
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There's always some uncertainty about how players will translate from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan to MLB. But there's extra uncertainty regarding Munetaka Murakami, who seems to be a boom-or-bust proposition.
On one hand, the 25-year-old homered 246 times in eight seasons with the Yakult Swallows. He won Central League Rookie of the Year in 2019, and MVP in 2021 and 2022. This past season, he homered 22 times in only 56 games.
On the other hand, Murakami struck out 64 times in 224 plate appearances this past year. There is conflicting information on just how much he struggled against velocity this past season, but he didn't fare well.
He's a natural third baseman, but might end up as more of a first baseman/DH type in MLB.
The thing about Murakami is he's still young. There's going to be interest in his power, particularly given his youth compared to other sluggers available in free agency this offseason, such as Schwarber, Alonso and Eugenio Suárez.
However, he might be a fallback option for teams that don't get players like Schwarber and Alonso.
That will create an interesting dynamic considering the posting system dictates that he needs to reach a deal with an MLB team by 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 22. It appears Schwarber will be signed before then. If Alonso isn't, will teams like the Mets or Boston Red Sox pivot to Murakami in fear of being left empty-handed?
