UFC 323: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
Saturday's UFC 323 event in Las Vegas will be the MMA promotion's last pay-per-view of 2025, and it's safe to say it will be closing out the year with a bang.
The card will be topped by two title fights, with a former champion in each, rounding out the main card.
In the main event, dominant bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will make his fourth title defense against former champ Petr Yan. Dvalishvili has beaten Yan before, but the challenger will be determined to catch him off guard in the rematch.
In the co-main event, flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja will look to extend an even longer title reign, defending his belt for the fifth time against surging contender Joshua Van. It is one of the more compelling title contests we've seen in the division in some time, as Van has looked unstoppable in the UFC, outside of a hiccup against Charles Johnson.
Before we get to the title fights, we'll get a flyweight showdown between former champ Brandon Moreno and rising contender Tatsuro Taira, who could get a title shot in victory. Before that, former two-division champ Henry Cejudo will compete for what he claims will be the last time against popular bantamweight prospect Payton Talbott.
The other former champ on the card will be light heavyweight veteran Jan Blachowicz, who will look for a sorely needed win against knockout collector Bogdan Guskov.
Every fight on the main card has a ton of potential, and it should be an excellent night of MMA. Here's how the B/R combat sports team sees it all shaking out.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan II
1 of 5
Tom Taylor: Sometimes, UFC champions achieve such dominance that they're forced to recycle opponents they've already soundly beaten to keep busy.
In the past, we've seen this from legends like Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva, Demetrious Johnson, Jose Aldo, and Jon Jones. Now, we're seeing it from Merab Dvalishvili, who takes on Petr Yan for a second time in this weekend's main event.
I believe Dvalishvili surpassed Dominick Cruz as the greatest bantamweight in the sport's history some time ago. His first win over Petr Yan, which was fairly one-sided, helped him do so.
Given how soundly Dvalishvili beat Yan the first time they met, and how much he has improved since then, I see no reason to expect anything different in the sequel.
I do think Yan will survive till the final bell again, but by then he'll have been taken down multiple times and controlled for huge swaths of the fight—just like he was the first time around.
This is an easy pick.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Yan, for at least a little while, looked like the real deal. The guy who beat Jose Aldo was a monster, and had he not gotten DQ'd against Sterling at UFC 273, who knows? But that loss was followed by two more—including a five-round shutout by Dvalishvili—and none of the three wins he's reeled off since make it seem as if that result will be reversed.
The champ is on a historic run and there's no reason to believe it ends here.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by submission, Rd. 4
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
2 of 5
Tom Taylor: I would love to see Joshua Van win a UFC title. He's one of the most exciting fighters in the flyweight division, thanks in large part to his fight-ending punching power. He'd make a great champ. I don't see it happening, though.
Pantoja is seemingly made of steel, so he should be able to withstand whatever Van throws at him. That will give him room to apply his incredible grappling skills to drag the fight to the mat and most likely lock up a submission sometime later in the fight.
I expect this will look a bit like Pantoja's win over former Rizin champ Kai Asakara—another power-punching flyweight. Van may hang in there a little longer than Asakura did, but he'll eventually find himself on the ground. Sooner or later, he's going to get caught in something he can't escape.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Two guys on prolonged win streaks make for a terrific championship fight, but I'll concede to not being over the moon about either. Elite fighters? Absolutely. But not transcendent. This makes it difficult to separate them.
Van has won eight of nine UFC fights, but he's only finished two of them. Meanwhile, Pantoja has won five straight title fights and finished the last two. Simply put, he's thriving on a higher level and should show it here.
Prediction: Pantoja by unanimous decision
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Tairo
3 of 5
Tom Taylor: This is a fantastic fight, and a very tricky one to predict. Moreno is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. However, Taira has had the answers for every test he's taken in a ring or cage outside of a recent loss to Brandon Royval.
Moreno has shown some faint signs of decline lately, which is not surprising given all the wars he's been involved in, but I still favor his versatility and experience over Taira's youth and momentum. If Royal could do it, so can the former champ.
Prediction: Moreno by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Another fascinating fight that'll determine whether a young stud is ready for the big time by putting him up against an ex-champ. Taira has been nearly flawless while winning seven of eight fights in the UFC, but it's not as if Moreno has been skidding lately. He went 3-2-1 in six title fights from 2020 to 2023, beating two top-10 fighters and losing a split decision to another in three fights since. Unless he's gotten old overnight, it's still Moreno time here.
Prediction: Moreno by unanimous decision
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
4 of 5
Tom Taylor: Henry Cejudo says he's retiring after this fight, no matter the outcome. I've heard that song before.
Truth be told, Cejudo probably never should have ended his first retirement, as all he's done since then are his losing fights, obscuring the memory of his reign as a two-division UFC champion in the process. Talbott, who is still just a prospect, marks a huge step down in competition from the fighters Cejudo has been fighting over the last few years, but I still don't see the former champ getting the results he wants.
Cejudo's high-level wrestling is definitely an interesting variable. However, I see Talbott keeping this one standing, and if that's the case, his reach, power, and youth should carry him to the W. A knockout wouldn't surprise me, but I'll give Cejudo the respect he deserves and call it a decision.
Prediction: Talbott by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's been a dizzying fall from two-division champ to young-guy barometer for Cejudo, who finds himself these days fighting someone not just 11 years younger—but also six inches taller and possessing a significant edge in reach. All signs point to Talbott getting over at Cejudo's expense, but let's not forget the 27-year-old was shut out just 10 months ago. So, until he proves otherwise, he's as much a suspect as a prospect.
Prediction: Cejudo by submission, Rd. 2
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
5 of 5
Tom Taylor: I'm not sure how anyone could pick Blachowicz in this fight. He is certainly one of the best light heavyweights of the last 10 years, but he has been extremely inactive thus far in the 2020s. He has not stopped anybody with his "Legendary Polish Power" since knocking out Dominick Reyes to claim the vacant light heavyweight title in early 2020. I'm not trying to bash the guy—I'm actually a big fan—but there's very little reason to believe he's still in his prime as we head into 2026. Bogdan Guskov, on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders, with a string of devastating KO wins behind him. I don't have a ton of confidence he'll be able to knock Blachowicz out cold, as the former champ has only been stopped with strikes twice, but my gut says this doesn't go the distance.
Prediction: Guskov by TKO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: When it comes to finding reasons to pick Blachowicz to win here, I've got to agree with my man Tom. There are none, or at least none that are logical. He's 42, and, though he's got a title-level pedigree that Guskov doesn't have, he's not shown anything resembling it in several years. So, whether you believe Guskov will ever reach that high a level or not, his four straight finishes are more than enough to tip the scales.
Prediction: Guskov by TKO, Rd. 2
