BS Meter on Bellinger to Mets, Pirates Spending, Latest MLB Trade, Free Agent Rumors
Major League Baseball's hot-stove season is in full swing, with two stunning trades (Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward; Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo) and one not-so-stunning re-signing (Josh Naylor with the Mariners) already happening.
Rumors of more big happenings are constantly flying around, but how do they smell?
Several teams that historically tend to spend as little as possible have been identified as potential big spenders. Should we believe that?
And after that Nimmo-Semien swap, what's next for the Mets and Rangers?
We've identified a handful of the biggest rumors circulating with the winter meetings (Dec. 7-10) fast approaching, and we've assigned a BS Meter rating to each. The higher the rating, the more it smells like a big, steaming pile of...malarkey.
Marlins Willing to Spend, Targeting Michael King
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Rumor: The Miami Marlins are planning to spend more aggressively than in years past (per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich on Nov. 12) and are among the teams that have expressed a desire to sign Michael King (per Rosenthal and Will Sammon on Nov. 24).
BS Meter: 7.7 out of 10, but they had us in the first half, not gonna lie.
If ever there was a time for the Miami Marlins to make a financial investment in winning, it's right now.
Payroll is low, yet they can bring back everyone—not only for 2026, but also for 2027—who contributed to what was a 49-38 finish to this past season.
The rotation is loaded, with hopes both Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara will be more imposing in year No. 2 back from Tommy John surgery. Kyle Stowers was a breakout star as a corner outfielder. Jakob Marsee was a fantastic late call-up in center field. And the Xavier Edwards-Otto López middle infield tandem provided a ton of value.
The foundation is there to contend for the next couple of years, provided they finish the puzzle.
But if they are spending for a change, making a move for a starting pitcher doesn't make sense.
The Marlins need corner infielders, or just hitters in general. They also would presumably benefit from adding an actual closer as opposed to another season of hoping for the best with Calvin Faucher and Co.
What they don't need is another starting pitcher.
If anything, the assumption heading into the offseason was that they'd be trading from their stockpile of starting pitchers to address some of those other areas of need.
It's plausible they've decided that signing King for 3-4 years at about $20 million apiece and then trading away one (or more) of their arms for a bat (or two) is more doable than signing a bat in free agency. But unless that's the roundabout plan, it's hard to see the point of this connection.
Ketel Marte Trade Suitors Include Blue Jays and Phillies
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The Rumor: "It's at least a 50/50 chance that Ketel Marte is moved by the Diamondbacks."—MLB Network's Jon Morosi (on Nov. 25). Morosi said "nothing is close" but "Diamondbacks are actively listening" and both Toronto and Philadelphia have checked in
BS Meter: 1.5 out of 10
The general notion of Arizona being willing to trade Ketel Marte is an 0 out of 10 on the BS Meter.
We've been talking about that since before the summer trade deadline, and USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported earlier this month that the Diamondbacks are "motivated" to move Marte, noting that what is currently a limited no-trade clause becomes a 10-and-5 rights full no-trade clause shortly after the 2026 regular season begins.
Adding to that "now or never" feeling, Marte is already 32, he is still owed $103.5 million for the next six years, the Diamondbacks rotation desperately needs help and second-base prospect Tommy Troy (first-round pick in 2023 draft) might just be ready to take Marte's place after hitting .289/.382/.451 between double-A and triple-A in 2025.
Is it really better than a 50 percent chance he gets traded, though?
And are the Blue Jays and Phillies really the likeliest candidates to get a deal done for Marte?
Toronto's interest level makes sense, but neither of those teams can much afford to give up starting pitching that would actually help the Diamondbacks in 2026. If anything, both of those teams are probably looking to add one arm this winter.
Cincinnati could make a lot of sense, though. The Reds have a slight excess of starting pitching and a definite need for a two-time reigning Silver Slugger.
Boston could work, too, especially after trading for Sonny Gray on Tuesday. They'd probably need to part with at least one of Connelly Early or Payton Tolle to make it worth Arizona's while, but trading from a position of depth to fix up a messy infield might be desirable.
Or, if Arizona could possibly stomach helping out the Dodgers, that is the most blatantly obvious trade partner. Los Angeles has a ridiculous stockpile of starting pitching and could roll with Marte at 2B, Tommy Edman at CF and Hyeseong Kim as a utilityman.
Arizona definitely has options, if it's actually motivated to move Marte.
Detroit Tigers Among Those Looking to Sign Ryan Helsley as a Starter
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The Rumor: After making 297 career appearances in the majors with a single start among them, free-agent closer Ryan Helsley is being pursued as a potential starting pitcher, with the Detroit Tigers possibly foremost among the suitors, per The Athletic (on Nov. 23).
BS Meter: No BS detected, though questions on whether Helsley can cut the mustard as a starter are certainly warranted.
At this point, it feels like we're just going to keep getting at least one of these free-agent-reliever-to-starter conversions on an annual basis.
Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn't. Seth Lugo made that transition extremely well. So did Reynaldo López, when healthy. Jordan Hicks...not so much. Clay Holmes ended up being one of the Mets' better starting pitchers this season.
And here's why Detroit surely loves the idea of taking a chance on Helsley: All four of those pitchers signed multi-year deals with an AAV of $12.7 million or less, and the Tigers are already committed to at least $20 million in 2026 on each of Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, Javier Báez and Tarik Skubal (presumably, in arbitration).
They need a starting pitcher, and they probably need a "cheap" one at that.
And if it ends up going terribly and it becomes clear Helsley needs to be converted back to a high-leverage reliever? Well, Detroit could use at least one of those, too.
For what it's worth, Helsley was predominantly a starter prior to arriving in the big leagues, and a pretty good one at that. He had a 2.84 ERA in 87 minor league appearances, 69 of those as starts. If it's like riding a bicycle for him, he could be a great buy-low after that rough finish to last season.
Pirates Wanted Josh Naylor, Pursuing Kyle Schwarber
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The Rumor: The Pittsburgh Pirates are suddenly willing to spend money, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (on Nov. 24). They reportedly wanted Josh Naylor before he re-signed with the Seattle Mariners and are now trying to sign Kyle Schwarber out from under Philadelphia's nose.
BS Meter: 9.9 out of 10, with a one percent chance pigs will, in fact, fly.
If you had to venture a guess at just two players in this year's class of free agents who were likely to re-sign where they ended the 2025 campaign, Josh Naylor and Kyle Schwarber would've been two of the top three, along with Bo Bichette.
Maybe the Pirates did legitimately want to sign them.
Perhaps they even convinced themselves they had/have a chance to make it happen.
But for those to be the two primary targets of a team, one that has never spent more than $17 million on an external free agent in franchise history, just feels...insincere.
It feels like the lip service of a team that wants to tell its fans (and, probably more so, the MLBPA) that it's trying to spend money without actually intending to do so.
Honestly, though, it would be awesome to be proved wrong here.
After decades of watching the Pirates serve as little more than a factory for turning young talent into prospects that might turn into more young talent which can be turned into more prospects and so on, it'd be fun to watch them spend big money on a slugger or two to actually try to contend with Paul Skenes leading the charge.
But we'll believe it when we see it, and will instead brace for yet another winter in which Pittsburgh signs around half-a-dozen veterans to one-year deals averaging around $6 million-$7 million apiece.
Mets Likely to Sign Kyle Tucker and/or Cody Bellinger
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The Rumor: "The widespread belief was that (the New York Mets) were already planning on making a push for Kyle Tucker and/or Cody Bellinger. This deal* makes it all but certain that they will try to sign one of those two outfielders." (MLB.com's Mark Feinsand on Nov. 24.)
*The deal was NYM sending OF Brandon Nimmo to Texas for 2B Marcus Semien on Sunday.
BS Meter: 0 out of 10
The Mets opened the offseason talking about a desire to improve run prevention—which we mostly interpreted as/wanted to believe was a statement of intent to invest in the starting rotation.
But improving the defense was also a key part of that goal, already acquiring a two-time (including 2025) Gold Glove second baseman in Semien while rumors of their interest in former Gold Glove outfielders Bellinger and Tucker continue to swirl.
Now they've traded Nimmo away, adding an outfielder has gone from a "window dressing" type of luxury move to something they actually need to do, unless we're thinking they're cool with banking on 34-year-old Jeff McNeil and Tyrone ".598 OPS" Taylor for 162 games apiece in left and center.
Meanwhile, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said on Monday that lowering payroll would be "ideal," and they've already had Trent Grisham accept his qualifying offer for what will be a $17 million raise compared to what he made in 2025.
It seemed likely at the beginning of the offseason that Bellinger would remain in the Bronx. At this point, though, it's probably more like minus-150 that he relocates to Queens.
It's difficult to imagine the Mets will sign both Bellinger and Tucker, but landing one or the other seems far more likely than not in light of recent events.
Baltimore Will Add 'Top Half of the Rotation' Starting Pitcher
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The Rumor: "They're definitely going to add to this group, there's no question about it."—MLB Network's Jon Morosi on Baltimore's offseason plans for the rotation, after trading away Grayson Rodriguez. Orioles GM Mike Elias said they plan to add a "top, front or top half of the rotation" arm.
BS Meter: 1.2 out of 10
With Baltimore in particular, we've been down this road too many times before to not at least be a little skeptical about it.
When the O's came to the end of their rebuild with 83 wins in 2022—with Adley Rutschman thriving and top prospect Gunnar Henderson arriving—we thought they'd invest in building a winner. Instead, their biggest move was adding 35-year-old Kyle Gibson for $10 million.
When they won 101 games the following year in spite of their penny-pinching and with the Angelos-to-Rubenstein sale taking place that offseason, we were much more willing to believe big moves and fat checks were coming. But while they did make that blockbuster trade for one year of Corbin Burnes, they otherwise did nothing aside from take a $13 million flyer on Craig Kimbrel.
Last offseason was their first full one under the new ownership group, and we all allowed ourselves to believe they might re-sign Burnes to a massive deal, or otherwise do something major to really pursue a ring in this window before Rutschman and Henderson leave in free agency. And though they definitely spent more than usual, replacing Burnes and Anthony Santander with Charlie Morton and Tyler O'Neill went (predictably) poorly.
Granted, Burnes underwent TJ surgery and Santander was terrible for the Blue Jays, so maybe they dodged a pair of bullets there. But can we truly believe this is the year they're going to sign a top-two starter? Or is Lucy going to pull that football away yet again?
Trading Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward certainly seemed to signal Baltimore's plans to add a better/healthier starting pitcher this winter. We'll see if they can actually pull it off, though.
Red Sox Interested in J.T. Realmuto
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The Rumor: Though most still expect J.T. Realmuto to return to Philadelphia, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Jen McCaffrey reported (on Nov. 25) that the Boston Red Sox have shown an interest in signing what is by far the best catcher available in free agency.
BS Meter: 8.3 out of 10
Why? Just...why?
The Red Sox have plenty of needs this offseason. First base and third base are big ones for sure. Arguably second base, too. Middle relief would be nice. One more back-of-the-rotation starter certainly wouldn't hurt.
What they don't need, though, is another catcher.
Connor Wong and Carlos Narváez will cost them a combined sum of a little more than $2 million in 2026, and both are under team control through at least 2028. And though Wong had a rough go in 2025, they've already tendered him a contract and believe he can bounce back to the .280 hitter he was in 2024.
And after increasing payroll considerably with the acquisition of Sonny Gray, can they honestly justify disregarding at least one of their actual needs to instead sign Realmuto to what would be an eight-figure salary as the third catcher on the roster?
Maybe it makes sense to get Realmuto's right-handed bat into that lineup if he's trying to make a late-career switch from catcher to first base? However, there's been no indication that's the motivation for their pursuit.
Corey Seager Unlikely to Be Traded
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The Rumor: Corey Seager to the Yankees remains a possibility, however, "There's less urgency for them to do it, because they've already lessened the amount of money they're spending." The "overwhelming likelihood" is that Seager will remain a Ranger on Opening Day.—MLB Network's Jon Morosi (on Nov. 24).
BS Meter: 0.2 out of 10
For as much as we've heard about and talked about the Texas Rangers' desire to shed payroll this offseason, it's hard to imagine they won't at least listen to any trade proposals that happen to come in for Corey Seager, who is still owed $31 million in each of the next six seasons.
But it's even harder to imagine Texas will be the one initiating those conversations at the winter meetings, as they've already dumped quite a bit of payroll in recent days, between non-tendering Jonah Heim and Adolis García and trading Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo.
It should be noted that it never felt particularly likely the Rangers would trade Seager. He always was much more of a foundational piece of the team than Semien was, and The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal even said two weeks ago that moving Seager, Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovaldi was "almost certainly" not part of Texas' cost-cutting plans.
However, after it was reported last week that Atlanta is one of the teams Seager could block a trade to with his limited no-trade clause, that inevitably led to speculations on where Seager actually might be dealt this winter.
But Seager isn't going anywhere. Nor is Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes or Philadelphia's Bryce Harper, who both seem to pop up in a new trade package idea every few days.
Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta both remain plausible, though, and we all know the offseason trade machine delivers a "Whoa, where did that come from?" stunner every few weeks.
Hope you're strapped in for another wild winter ride.
