The Top MLB Free Agents Most Likely to Be Overpaid in 2025-26 Offseason
Four players this offseason have already made out very well by taking the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer: Gleyber Torres (Detroit Tigers), Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers), Trent Grisham (New York Yankees) and Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs).
Torres was an All-Star for the third time in his career this past season, but he posted just a .659 OPS in the second half of the season as he dealt with a sports hernia on his right side.
Woodruff is a multiple-time All-Star himself, but while he went 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 2025, he's made only 12 starts over the last two years and ended this past campaign with a right lat strain.
Grisham is difficult to figure out. He hit 34 home runs and drew 82 walks this past season, posting an .811 OPS—a drastic improvement from the .651 mark he had from 2022 to 2024. His calling card had been his excellent defense in center field, as he won Gold Glove Awards in 2020 and 2022. But in his age-28 season, he finished with minus-11 defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs.
Finally, Imanaga was excellent in his first MLB season of 2024, posting a top-five finish in NL Cy Young Award voting by going 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA. He regressed in his second season, though, finishing with a 3.73 ERA and 4.86 FIP. He certainly wouldn't have gotten anywhere close to $22.025 million in 2026 on the open market.
They say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, but these four players accepting the qualifying offer might test that theory.
Let's take a look at some other players who could get overpaid in free agency this winter.
Justin Verlander
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To his credit, Justin Verlander posted a 2.99 ERA over 14 second-half starts for the San Francisco Giants, assuring that the three-time All-Star will have an opportunity to pitch for a 21st season.
The problem is the 42-year-old went 0-7 with a 4.70 ERA in the first half of the season. That came after he posted a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts during an injury-riddled campaign with the Houston Astros in 2024.
As cool as it would be for Verlander's second half of the season to be a sign of him finding one more great run that allows him to get to 300 career wins—he leads all active starters with 266 victories—it just seems more likely it's his last great act. He's going to turn 43 in February, and he has logged more than 3,500 regular-season innings in his career. It's an annoying cliche, but Father Time is undefeated.
Still, Verlander signed for $15 million this past season, and considering how he pitched in the second half of the campaign, he certainly won't pitch for any less than that in 2026. Heck, the former AL MVP might insist on more.
The same can likely be said for his for his former teammate, Max Scherzer, who has struggled to stay healthy the past two years, but pitched well for the Toronto Blue Jays in the postseason. With both, you pay a premium for a future Hall of Famer, even if they're no longer at the height of their powers.
Devin Williams
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On one hand, Devin Williams feels like an obvious bounce-back candidate. Yes, he struggled in what will be his only season with the Yankees, posting a 4.79 ERA.
However, both his 3.11 expected ERA and 2.68 FIP suggest he wasn't nearly that bad. As does the fact that he was on a Hall of Fame pace from 2019-2024 when he posted a minuscule 1.83 ERA over 241 appearances.
On the other hand, Raisel Iglesias just returned to the Atlanta Braves on a one-year, $16 million deal for his age-36 season. He was excellent in the second half of the year, posting a 2.22 ERA over 30 games. But that came after he posted a 3.92 ERA in 40 appearances in the first half.
We projected Williams to sign a one-year, $13 million deal in our B/R top 25 free-agent contract and landing spot predictions. Given what Iglesias got, though, Williams might get closer to $20 million with how desperate teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Blue Jays and New York Mets, among others, will be to try to have an elite ninth-inning guy.
At that price, it is more fair to scrutinize that Williams struggled in 2025, and missed a significant chunk of 2024, his final season in Milwaukee, with a pair of stress fractures in his back.
Will the two-time Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year bounce back in 2026? Probably. But at the price it's going to take to sign him, it will be painful for his next employer if he doesn't.
Harrison Bader
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Harrison Bader posted a career-high .796 OPS in a 2025 campaign that he split between the Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies, while proving he can thrive in both left and center field defensively.
In a market where there's a lack of right-handed hitters and center fielders in general, the 31-year-old should make out well.
No matter what, Bader has always been a tremendous fielder. He posted 13 defensive runs saved and six outs above average this past season, so there's no slippage there.
It is fair, though, to be a little skeptical about his ability to replicate his offensive production from 2025, particularly the .305 batting average and .824 OPS he posted after being traded to the Phillies.
Yes, Bader sold out to pull the ball more consistently in 2025, and increased his hard-hit percentage to a career-high 40.3 percent. That partly explains his .359 batting average on balls in play—if you hit the ball harder, you're going to get more hits. But it's still significantly higher than his .305 career BABIP, so some regression is likely in order.
More concerning is that Bader has, at times, struggled with injuries in his career. It's at least mildly concerning for a player whose value is so dependent on his ability to be a tremendous defender that he sustained a left hamstring strain in Game 1 of the NLDS, which prevented him from playing in the field the rest of the series against the Dodgers. He'll turn 32 next June, and soft-tissue injuries don't usually become less frequent as you age.
If Bader is able to replicate his offensive production from 2025, a multi-year deal should be fine. But considering he posted a .641 OPS between 2023 and 2024 and there are some injury concerns, we may well look back at his eventual deal as an overpay.
Adolis García
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Considering he was just non-tendered by the Texas Rangers, it's difficult to say what type of deal Adolis García will get.
Impact right-handed hitters—particularly outfielders—are so sparse right now, though, that García might become someone who gets overpaid, be it on a one- or two-year deal.
To be fair, García played Gold Glove-caliber defense this past season, posting 16 defensive runs saved and six assists from right field.
Unfortunately for him, his offensive production has plummeted the past two seasons.
2021-2023 (per season averages): .246 batting average, 32 home runs, 99 RBI, .777 OPS
2024-25 (per season averages): .225 batting average, 22 home runs, 80 RBI, .675 OPS
García was never a high on-base guy, but his power production and batting average have also dipped the past two seasons, a concerning trend for someone who is entering his age-33 season.
Nonetheless, García will benefit from joining an group of free agents where the aforementioned Bader is probably his top competition among right-handed hitting outfielders. That will likely allow him to make out very well—certainly in terms of dollars, and perhaps with multiple seasons—even after being non-tendered.
J.T. Realmuto
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J.T. Realmuto has been arguably the best catcher of his era, and it's not as though he has nothing left. He remains a tremendous baserunner, throws out would-be basestealers at a high clip and is lauded by the pitchers he works with for his tireless preparation.
At the same time, the 34-year-old is likely to get overpaid this offseason given the lack of quality catchers in the sport, despite some clear indicators of significant decline.
The 2022 season was arguably the best of Realmuto's career. Let's compare some of his key metrics from then to 2025.
2022 (139 games): 22 home runs, 84 RBI, .820 OPS, 11 defensive runs saved, 15 fielding run value, 6.7 WAR
2025 (134 games): 12 home runs, 52 RBI, .700 OPS, minus-two defensive saved, minus-10 fielding run value, 2.1 WAR
Realmuto does still take on a tremendous workload, as he caught 1,151.1 innings last year. But we've projected him to land a three-year, $45 million contract in free agency because of the lack of alternatives, both to the Phillies and other catcher-needy teams.
And given the decline he's already seen and that Realmuto is entering his age-35 season, that deal may get ugly.
