Will Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette or Derrick Henry Lead SEC in Rushing?

Following an ugly performance in the 2014 postseason, the Southeastern Conference faces some serious questions about its overall position in college football.

After a 2-5 record in bowl games, is the SEC West still the best division in the game? Can the league produce a national champion? SEC coaches were forced to address such issues at the recent SEC Media Days. Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde wrote the SEC's swagger has "developed a distinct wobble."

One issue that requires no qualifiers, however, is the league’s running back depth. Seven of the SEC’s top nine rushers from 2014 return—by comparison, only four of the top nine passers from a year ago return. With Georgia’s Nick Chubb, LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Alabama’s Derrick Henry, the league has three legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates, and all are threats to lead the league in rushing. Only one can, however. Who will emerge victorious in the SEC rushing race this fall? Let’s break it down.

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We’ll start off by examining the SEC’s leading returning rusher, Georgia sophomore Nick Chubb. Chubb began last season as a relatively anonymous backup to star Todd Gurley. However, Gurley’s four-game NCAA suspension for accepting payment for his autograph, followed by a season-ending ACL tear, pushed Chubb to the forefront, and he took full advantage.

Chubb rushed for 1,547 yards, second-best in the SEC behind Auburn’s Cameron Artis-Payne, and he finished with 14 touchdowns. Most remarkable? He did so while starting just eight games. In Georgia’s first three games, Chubb recorded a total of 12 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown.

But with Gurley sidelined, the 5’10”, 220-pound bowling ball of a back reeled off eight consecutive 100-yard rushing games, the first Georgia player to do so since Bulldogs legend and Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker. He left UGA fans with a performance to savor in a Belk Bowl rout of Louisville, carrying 33 times for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Chubb averaged a remarkable 7.1 yards per carry and left Bulldogs loyalists asking the question, what could this guy do with a full season as the starter?

The results this fall might astound you. New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer inherits a loaded backfield with Chubb, Sony Michel and Keith Marshall leading the way. Georgia coach Mark Richt told ESPN's Danny Kanell (via Jason Butt of the Macon Telegraph) that Chubb wouldn't be the only back he rides in the new offense:

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Nick has proven he has stamina. And it happened last season when we had injuries and a suspension [to Gurley] where he had to carry the load and was able to do it. But we have Sony Michel, Keith Marshall, Brendan Douglas, A.J. Turman, who's back from injury. So we've got other guys who can help him. And it's just like when Nick came in, he came in with Sony knowing, 'Hey, I want to share the load. I don't want this thing 35 times a game.' Because it's just not healthy for those guys.

"

The quarterback situation is uncertain. Brice Ramsey and Faton Bauta will carry their battle for the starting role over from spring practice, and they’ve been joined by Virginia graduate transfer Greyson Lambert. Any of the three could win the job, but none is a guaranteed gunslinger.

Schottenheimer is not known as an air-it-out guy, and Georgia returns four of five starters from a strong offensive line. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him lean on the ground game, particularly as the new starting quarterback finds his way.

Chubb should get more than the 219 carries he received in 2014, but Michel, Marshall and others will get their share too. Still, another 1,500-yard season isn’t out of the question this fall.

At Alabama, Derrick Henry has to be excited. With T.J. Yeldon off to the NFL, the junior will finally be the Crimson Tide’s clear No. 1 back, emerging from the back half of Nick Saban’s preferred two-headed backfield beast.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

While the division of carries has fluctuated from year to year, Saban’s offense—no matter who’s calling it—leans toward a two-back system. In four of the last five years, Alabama has had its lead tailback declare early for the NFL draft, with the younger understudy moving into a lead role.

Mark Ingram begat Trent Richardson, who begat Eddie Lacy, who begat Yeldon, who, in turn, leaves the keys to the backfield to Henry.

Over the last four years, the carry breakdown has yo-yoed. In 2011, Richardson carried 283 times for 1,679 yards, with Lacy going 95 for 674. A year later, Lacy and Yeldon were almost equal, with Lacy toting 204 times for 1,322 yards and Yeldon 175 for 1,108. In 2013, Yeldon dominated, carrying 207 times for 1,235 yards with Kenyan Drake going 92 for 694. And last fall, it was a near-even split: Henry carried 172 times for 990 yards and Yeldon 194 for 979.

While Lane Kiffin used a pass-heavy scheme last fall, he must replace starting quarterback Blake Sims and Alabama’s top three receivers from a year ago, including Biletnikoff Award winner and No. 4 overall NFL draft pick Amari Cooper. Jake Coker leads a five-man field into preseason practice, but he has by no means locked down the starting QB role.

That means Kiffin could lean more heavily on the ground attack, especially if it takes multiple games to determine a starting quarterback, as was the case in 2014. Even so, Drake—who has recovered from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season—is a dynamic rushing and receiving threat who’ll earn his share of carries. Henry will easily crack 1,000 yards this fall, but don’t expect him to approach Richardson’s recent high-water mark.

In his last game of 2014, Leonard Fournette justified the hype that surrounded him for his entire freshman season. The LSU tailback was rated as 2014’s top overall recruit by 247Sports, and coach Les Miles and his new teammates did nothing to squelch the hubbub before the season began.

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Fournette, who stands 6’1”, 230 pounds, got off to a slow start but finished strong. He recorded 146 yards and a touchdown in the regular-season finale against Texas A&M and went off in the Music City Bowl, rushing for 143 yards and two touchdowns—including an 89-yard sprint—on just 11 carries, adding a 100-yard kickoff return score to boot.

His combination of speed, power and agility keeps opposing defensive coordinators up at night and makes professional scouts drool. His finish to 2014 will only raise the stakes for 2015.

LSU returns three offensive-line starters from a year ago and has an uncertain quarterback situation between junior Anthony Jennings and sophomore Brandon Harris, neither of whom seized the role in 2014.

Although Jennings is currently suspended following a June arrest for unauthorized entrance of a dwelling, Miles told reporters including NOLA.com's Jim Kleinpeter that he expects Jennings to return and continue battling for the starting spot. SI.com's Andy Staples wrote Fournette can lead the Tigers to the promised land but needs help.

Fournette should be even better with an offseason in LSU’s strength-and-conditioning program, and with Terrence Magee—who had 112 carries to his 187 a year ago—gone, his workload should increase. Expect a strong sophomore season approaching 1,500 yards as the Tigers lean on their star more heavily.

So who’ll lead the SEC in rushing this fall? Let’s assume Alabama’s dual-back approach counts out Henry. It’s between Chubb and Fournette. With the Tigers’ quarterback uncertainty and thinner overall backfield, expect Fournette to pace the SEC. However, it’ll be close, and both he and Chubb should be legit Heisman Trophy candidates.