Making the Case For and Against Drake Maye and More NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 11

As we dive into the second half of an unpredictable 2025 NFL season, the MVP race is wide open. 

At the moment, 10 players have odds of +2500 or better to win the award, with only one former MVP among the top four in a race that is, quite astonishingly, led by sophomore New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. 

Using the current odds at DraftKings, let's break down cases for and against each of those 10.

New England Patriots QB Drake Maye

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Odds: +275

For: Maye has led the Patriots on a glorious seven-game winning streak that has lifted them to the top of the AFC standings. He's averaging an AFC-best 5.3 air yards per attempt, and his 122.7 passer rating on deep balls ranks second among qualified passers. 

Against: While he does have trademark wins in Buffalo and Tampa, the rest of it has come against soft competition. He also looked mortal against the Buccaneers in Week 10, so it's a potential sign this won't be sustainable when the Pats meet the Bills (again) and Ravens in December.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford

AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

Odds: +300

For: The 37-year-old has thrown a league-high 25 touchdown passes—five more than any other quarterback—while leading a Rams team locked in a three-way tie atop the NFC standings. He's got a 124.1 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games and a 118.1 rating on passes that have traveled 15-plus yards downfield. 

Against: Like Maye, Stafford has loaded up against weak opponents such as the decimated 49ers, rebuilding Saints and fragile Jaguars, while looking human in Baltimore and Philadelphia. In the next six weeks, he'll have to face Seattle twice as well as Tampa Bay and Detroit. It might be hard to keep it rolling.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Odds: +500

For: A midseason hot streak from Mahomes has the Chiefs alive in the playoff hunt despite a horrendous start marred by injuries and poor execution. It's difficult to ever count out the most decorated active player in the sport. 

Against: Seven of the last eight MVPs were quarterbacks for No. 1 seeds in their conference. Right now, the Chiefs are 2.5 games out of that spot in the AFC. The raw and advanced numbers also aren't there, as he's merely the league's 12th-highest-rated passer while ranking 20th with a completion percentage of 64.6.

Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

AP Photo/Martin Meissner

Odds: +600

For: He leads the league in rushing by a 219-yard margin and in total touchdowns by a margin of 17 to 11. He's on pace to become the first player in the last 19 years to score 25-plus touchdowns in a single season. And most of that damage has come in the last month or so. 

Against: Seventeen of the last 18 MVPs (and each of the last 12) were quarterbacks. Nowadays, this award goes to the best QB, and Offensive Player of the Year frequently goes to the best non-quarterback (a signal-caller hasn't won OPOY since 2018). On top of that, Taylor's case could be hurt by the fact that Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is also a fringe MVP candidate. Oh, and each of Indy's five remaining opponents have decent or good run defenses.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Odds: +700

For: The reigning MVP has the highest on-target rate and lowest bad-throw rate in football for a contender Bills squad. He also ranks first among 22 quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts in the fourth quarter of one-score games with a 129.3 rating under those circumstances. Allen also deserves credit for seven rushing touchdowns in nine games. There is a path for him to get back in this with big second-half performances against the likes of Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, New England and Philadelphia. 

Against: Despite a soft schedule overall, Allen ranks 15th in QBR and seventh with a 105.7 passer rating. He's disappeared far too often.

Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

AP Photo/Ben VanHouten

Odds: +1000

For: The league's QBR leader (77.6) is averaging a ridiculous 9.9 yards per attempt. That's on track to be the highest single-season mark in the NFL this century. Seattle is averaging more than 30 points per game and is tied for the NFC lead at 7-2.  

Against: Darnold has now thrown interceptions in three consecutive games, and he turned it over three times despite a Week 10 victory over Arizona. He could be losing momentum.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

AP Photo/Melissa Tamez

Odds: +2200

For: As always, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has been a sometimes-lethal dual threat for a team that currently sits atop its conference. He's the league's highest qualified deep passer through 10 weeks.

Against: His on-target rate (68.4) ranks 31st among 33 qualified passers, which partly explains why the Eagles offense hasn't been as crisp as usual. It's clear Hurts needs execution from Saquon Barkley in order to be at his best, which in turn hurts his chances of being a prime MVP contender. 

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Odds: +2500

For: Despite being consistently bruised and battered behind a hampered offensive line, the 27-year-old has helped the Chargers to a 7-3 start with some huge performances. He also leads all quarterbacks with 324 rushing yards. 

Against: The Chargers have played the fifth-easiest schedule in the league thus far, but that'll soon change. They have the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Broncos in the last month of the season, which will be hard to survive in their state. What's more, only two quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than Herbert (eight), and his 96.7 passer rating ranks 16th among qualifiers.

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

Odds: +2500

For: He's missed three games due to injury and the Ravens have played one of the hardest schedules in the league, but the two-time MVP has a league-best 127.1 passer rating with a 15-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Only Maye has been more productive on deep balls, and momentum and the schedule are now on Jackson's side. 

Against: Seven of the last eight MVPs were quarterbacks for No. 1 seeds in their conference. Right now, the Chiefs are 3.5 games out of that spot in the AFC. The hole might be just too deep.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman

Odds: +2500

For: He rode a nice hot streak at the end of September and beginning of October, and he's kept the Bucs afloat atop the NFC South despite a pileup of injuries. 

Against: Per Pro Football Focus, Mayfield has committed 14 turnover-worthy plays, which puts him in the company of guys such as Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa in the basement of that critical category. The Bucs have also fallen short in three big spots against Philly, Detroit and New England, and they appear to be moving in the wrong direction.