Every MLB Team's Best-Case Scenario for Rest of 2026 Regular Season
With roughly 40 games remaining on each Major League Baseball team's regular-season schedule, we've put together a list of best-case scenarios around the league.
Theoretically, every team's best-case scenario is "win every remaining game." If that's on the table, well, heck, even the basement dwelling Rockies and Athletics could storm all the way back to win 88-89 games and steal a wild card spot.
But there's an implied realistic before "best-case scenario" here, in which the seven teams with at least a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs are setting their sights on a No. 1 seed, the 15 teams in the four percent to 70 percent range are just hoping to still be playing in October and the handful of effectively dead teams are looking to identify hope for a better 2027 campaign.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order within their division, beginning as we typically do with the AL East before progressing to the NL West.
Records and statistics current through the start of play on Friday, August 14.
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles (58-63): Crash the postseason despite selling at the deadline
The O's traded away Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Jake Rogers for Carlos Narváez, Alex Hoppe and eight prospects. It was an approach that drastically bolstered their farm system, but they effectively threw in the towel on making the playoffs this year. Yet, they are within striking distance of the AL's final wild card spot and could pull off a minor miracle if Gunnar Henderson ever snaps out of his season-long funk.
Boston Red Sox (65-56): Chase down the Rays for the AL's No. 1 seed
From June 25 through August 7, Boston went on one of the more absurd extended heaters in MLB history, winning 32 out of 37 games. That's a 162-game pace of 140 wins, and it vaulted the Red Sox from "dead last in the American League" to "arguably the likeliest ALCS victor." Leapfrogging New York for home-field advantage in that impending wild card series is a more realistic goal than erasing a 10.5-game deficit in seven weeks' time. But just about anything seems possible with this team these days.
New York Yankees (68-53): Get healthy, get hot and get ahead of the Rays
Like Boston, New York would absolutely love to catch Tampa Bay for the top spot on the AL half of the bracket. And if it's reasonably close with a week to go, the Yankees do host the Rays for a four-game set in late September. More important than that, though, is simply getting healthy for October. To that end, both Carlos Rodón and Giancarlo Stanton are almost back, and the hope is that both Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger will return before Labor Day.
Tampa Bay Rays (74-46): Lock up home-field advantage through the World Series
Not only are the Rays 6.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East and a dozen games ahead of current AL No. 2 seed Chicago, but a nine-game winning streak has even pushed them into a tie with the Brewers for the best record in all of baseball. Can they keep the status quo? Ideally with Freddy Peralta turning his season around and becoming a trusted arm for the postseason rotation? And maybe with Junior Caminero leading the majors in home runs?
Toronto Blue Jays (59-64): See: Orioles, Baltimore
Toronto's deadline approach was nowhere near the wholesale fire sale that Baltimore put together, but the Blue Jays did part with Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Jeff Hoffman while attempting to thread the proverbial needle between buying and selling. And though they lost Trey Yesavage to a meniscus injury two days after the deadline, they have gone 7-4 dating back to last Monday. They are now just two games back for the last wild card spot, and after their upcoming NYY-TBR-NYY nine-game gauntlet, they'll close out the regular season with 30 consecutive games against teams who presently have a losing record.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox (62-58): Secure the most improbable first-round bye ever
In MLB history, only three teams have made the playoffs the year after suffering at least 100 losses: the 2017 Minnesota Twins, the 2020 Miami Marlins and the 2024 Kansas City Royals. All three did so as wild card teams, though, so the White Sox—fresh off a 60-102 campaign from yesteryear—are on track to become the first team to go directly from triple-digit losses to a division crown. And if they can stay ahead of Houston and Texas out of the AL West, they could even secure a No. 2 seed that seemed impossible five months ago.
Cleveland Guardians (59-63): Pull off one of those patented Cleveland comebacks
The Guardians went 20-7 last September, erasing a 10.5-game deficit to win the AL Central. Back in 2022, they were tied for the division lead on Labor Day, but went 24-6 down the stretch, winning by an 11-game margin. Or remember 2017, when they won 33 of their final 37 games en route to the AL's No. 1 seed? This team just has a knack for finishing with a flourish, and maybe they can do it again...if the offense ever gets into a groove.
Detroit Tigers (60-61): Recapture that 2024 lightning in a bottle
Two years ago, Detroit was a few games below .500 at the trade deadline when it decided to ship one of its best pitchers (Jack Flaherty) to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a selling approach. It then went 31-13 down the stretch to secure a wild card spot out of nowhere. This time around, the Tigers sent a much better pitcher to the Dodgers in Tarik Skubal while also moving Casey Mize to San Diego, yet they are still right there for the last wild card spot with the best run differential in the AL. And, well, another 31-13 finish would likely be more than enough to win this division.
Kansas City Royals (49-73): Identify some pitchers worth leaning on in 2027
Both Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila had Tommy John surgery about a week ago and will likely be out for all of 2027. They rank fourth and fifth on the Royals in innings pitched. No. 6 on that list is Kris Bubic, and he was traded to the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Cole Ragans is recovering from a UCL surgery of his own, unlikely to be back until the middle of next season, at the earliest. Can they stretch out Daniel Lynch IV? Or maybe the recently acquired Lucas Braun can factor into next year's mix?
Minnesota Twins (60-63): Justify buying by making the postseason
Granted, the Twins weren't aggressive buyers, but they did trade away six prospects for Dean Kremer, Jeff Hoffman and AJ Minter to spruce up a problematic pitching staff. They also called up one of their top prospects, infielder Kaelen Culpepper, a few days later, making a spirited push for the No. 6 seed that no one else in the American League seemed all that interested in pursuing. And as one of the highest scoring teams in the AL, the Twins might do more than just sneak into the postseason.
AL West
3 of 6
Athletics (47-74): Show anything at all worth getting excited about
Dating back to June 20, the A's have gone an abysmal 9-36. It's a 45-game stretch in which both their batting and their pitching ranks dead last in the majors in FanGraphs WAR. Their most valuable player during that time is Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, who has been out for nearly a month with a ruptured testicle. It feels like a lifetime ago that this team was 38-38 and half a game back in the AL West. Can they do something down the stretch to provide some optimism for 2027?
Houston Astros (62-60): Secure a first-round bye
At 13 games behind Tampa Bay, it would take a virtually impossible turn of events for the Astros to ascend to the AL's No. 1 seed. But winning the AL West and finishing ahead of the AL Central victor for the No. 2 seed? That is well within the realm of possibility. Getting more out of the starting rotation and/or the outfield would be a huge help in that quest, but this is already a much better team than the one that limped through the first half.
Los Angeles Angels (48-74): Identify some candidates for the 2027 rotation
In Reid Detmers, Yusei Kikuchi and Walbert Ureña, the Angels have a few arms that appear to be locked in for starting gigs next season. But in Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Johnson and George Klassen, they are hoping that someone else will use these remaining six weeks to emerge as a viable option for regular work in 2027. And then maybe, just maybe, they'll put together a winning season for a change.
Seattle Mariners (57-65): The offense finally wakes up and the M's win the division
From 2023-25, Josh Naylor had an .809 OPS while Cal Raleigh clocked in at .825. But at the end of play on Thursday, they were sitting at .703 and .564, respectively. If, by some miracle, those guys figure things out and start hitting like they used to do, Seattle could absolutely still win this division. Because despite ranking dead last in the majors in scoring, the Mariners already have the best run differential in the AL West, thanks to one of the better pitching staffs in the business. They just need some run support.
Texas Rangers (60-62): Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford stay healthy and anchor a charge to a first-round bye
The duo has missed a combined total of 110 games this season, and Texas has spent seemingly the entire year trying to find its stride on offense because of it. But they've both been playing on a regular basis over the past two weeks, with at least Seager starting to hit like his old self. If this team is ever going to get out of its .500 purgatory and make a run as a legitimate contender, Seager and Langford probably need to lead the way.
NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves (73-48): Earn the NL's No. 1 seed while Tyler Mahle cements his spot in postseason rotation
Thus far, Mahle has been the steal of the trade deadline, already giving Atlanta two quality starts with a combined 16 strikeouts. If he can even remotely keep it up, he just might be the answer to Atlanta's long-burning question: "Chris Sale in Game 1 and then whom?" He also could play a huge role in Atlanta edging out Milwaukee and/or Los Angeles for a first-round bye. (Getting some combination of Robert Suarez, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López back from the IL would also be swell.)
Miami Marlins (62-60): Catch fire again and steal a wild card spot
Over the past three months, the Marlins have had six separate winning streaks of at least four games, but also endured a 12-game schneid that brought them crashing back to earth. Despite selling somewhat aggressively at the deadline, they still have a respectable offense led by Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and Griffin Conine, as well as a solid rotation led by Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez. Maybe they have one more big run in them?
New York Mets (53-69): Rookies continue to look like building blocks
The Mets have nine players left on their roster making at least $15M this season, and Juan Soto is the only one who has even remotely been worth his salary. But the silver lining on this disastrous season has been the play of rookies Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Nolan McLean and Zac Thornton. The first three rank top four on the team in bWAR, while the latter has recorded a quality start in five of his first eight appearances in the bigs.
Philadelphia Phillies (65-58): Just get Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo into the postseason
Going on a tear and chasing down Atlanta for the NL East crown would be fantastic, but at nine games back, it isn't particularly realistic. In games started by one of the three above pitchers, though, the Phillies are 48-21, compared to 21-37 in all other games. And once October begins, you rarely need a fourth starter and never need a fifth one. Finish ahead of either Arizona or San Diego to secure a postseason spot and anything is possible. (And maybe Bryce Harper hits 12 more home runs along the way to reach 400 for his career.)
Washington Nationals (60-63): Pitch just well enough to pull off a minor miracle
Despite leading the majors in runs scored, the Nationals have fallen to 4.5 games back in the wild card race. That's largely because they have suffered a staggering 12 losses in games with at least six runs scored, on pace to shatter the MLB record for most blown saves in a season, already at 31. But Jackson Kent had an impressive MLB debut this week, and they could get Connelly Early, DJ Herz and Josiah Gray back from the IL before the season ends.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs (71-51): Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and a little bit of Justin Steele lead Cubs to best record in baseball
Cubs position players have a cumulative fWAR of 27.2, good for best in the majors by a margin of nearly six wins above replacement. Conversely, the pitching staff ranks 27th in fWAR with 12 arms presently on the IL. So they brought in Gausman and Holmes (and Ryan Zeferjahn) ahead of the trade deadline while they hold out hope that Steele might be able to help out in a relief capacity before the season ends. As good as the Brewers have been, the Cubs could still leapfrog them...if the pitching improves.
Cincinnati Reds (58-62): Don't completely unravel
The Reds already have the fifth-worst run differential in baseball, and they have, by far, the toughest remaining schedule, with seven games against the Dodgers, six each against the Brewers and Cubs and one series apiece against the Braves, Diamondbacks and Padres. They also just lost Hunter Greene to another Tommy John surgery, so things are looking pretty bleak, even at just five games back for the final wild card spot. Going .500 the rest of the way (while avoiding any other major injuries) might be the best-case scenario here.
Milwaukee Brewers (75-47): Ride the six-man rotation to home-field advantage
Darn near every word written about the Brewers these days has been about Jacob Misiorowski, and rightfully so. The Miz is dominating unlike anything we've seen since Peak Pedro Martinez or Peak Randy Johnson. But he is just one-sixth of what has become arguably the best top-to-bottom rotation in baseball, even with Brandon Woodruff out of the picture. If Logan Henderson out-duels Tarik Skubal on Sunday, it might be time to start recalibrating those World Series odds.
Pittsburgh Pirates (59-64): Paul Skenes changes the narrative
At five games below .500 and suddenly dead last in the NL Central, Pittsburgh's dream of ending the decade-long postseason drought is nearly kaput. But the bigger concern at this point is the vanishing velocity on Paul Skenes' fastball. He hasn't missed a start since his arrival in the majors 10 months after he was drafted, but something definitely isn't right. The Pirates have lost 13 of his last 16 starts, during which he has a 5.00 ERA. Even if they still miss the playoffs by a mile, getting Skenes back to looking like his old self down the stretch would be huge.
St. Louis Cardinals (61-60): NL ROY leads Cardinals back to October
In the past 39 years, the St. Louis Cardinals have produced one Rookie of the Year. His name was Albert Pujols. However, there's a good chance JJ Wetherholt will be joining that club, if he can edge out Cincinnati's Sal Stewart. And if he gets to 20/20 while helping propel the Cardinals into October, he just might win it unanimously. St. Louis sold off Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar and JoJo Romero at the deadline, but they still have a playoff pulse.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks (64-58): Corbin Burnes returns and gets Arizona across the finish line into the postseason
Just like Texas in the American League, it feels like Arizona has spent the entire season within three games (in either direction) of the postseason cut line. And with a three-game set in San Diego to close out the regular season, we could be headed for an incredible finish in the race for the final spot. Wouldn't it be something if Corbin Burnes makes it back from his Tommy John surgery and shoulder strain in time to help out? He has yet to begin a rehab assignment, but they're still hoping he returns in September.
Colorado Rockies (48-73): Avoid a fourth consecutive 100-loss season
At the moment, the Rockies are on pace for 98 losses, which would be 21 fewer than last year and their lowest loss total since 2022. They're also presently in dead last in the National League and only marginally ahead of the A's and Angels for the worst record in the majors. But baby steps are better than no steps. And if they can get to at least 63 wins while Hunter Goodman (34 HR) becomes the first Rockies player with at least 43 home runs in a single season since Todd Helton in 2001, even better.
Los Angeles Dodgers (73-49): Snap out of that annual mid-summer funk
In 2024, the Dodgers went 12-16 from late June through early August. Last year, they went 12-21 from early July into mid-August. And lately, they have been in a similar doldrums downswing, 14-18 dating back to July 5. Is playing dead for 5-6 weeks every summer just an inexplicably necessary variable in their World Series formula? With Blake Snell back, Tyler Glasnow close behind him and likely the addition of Kris Bubic, Will Smith and Shohei Ohtani's arm (maybe as closer?) at some point in September, perhaps it's time for them to lock back in and get that No. 1 seed.
San Diego Padres (65-57): Joe Musgrove returns, picks up where he left off two years ago and propels Padres to a wild card spot
In addition to picking up Robbie Ray and Casey Mize ahead of the trade deadline, the Padres should finally be getting Musgrove back into the rotation in the coming weeks. Whether he can jump right back in and replicate his closing stretch in 2024—went at least six scoreless innings in four of his final seven starts—remains to be seen, but he could provide a huge boost to a rotation that has been "Michael King or Bust" for most of the year.
San Francisco Giants (50-71): Identify a plausible closer
In theory, Randy Rodríguez will be back in 2027 after missing all of this season to Tommy John surgery. With four saves and five blown saves in his two-year career, though, he's far from a sure thing to lock down the closer job upon his return. But after trading away Caleb Kilian and Erik Miller, there's no one left on the roster with more than two saves this season. Can someone rise up down the stretch to at least resolve that problem with this team?
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