Top Remaining Games That Will Have Biggest Impact on the College Football Playoff
With the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings this past Tuesday evening, we've got a much clearer picture of what the committee is thinking and what the paths ahead for some look like to crash the party.
That includes what games we need to circle on the calendar.
Several huge, marquee matchups remain during the regular season, and that's not to even mention the championship games in the ACC and Big 12, in leagues that could get just one bid.
From a slew of SEC battles to a couple sprinkled around the other conferences, what happens from here on will have a major bearing on the final 12. We narrowed it to 10 games, but more than that could send shockwaves.
Iowa-USC, Louisville-SMU, Virginia-Duke, Florida-Ole Miss and Boise State-San Diego State were considered but just missed the biggest games. So, which ones did make the list?
Here are the ones you need to add to your must-see TV ledger for the remainder of the year.
Tulane at Memphis (November 7)
1 of 10
The Memphis Tigers weren't included in the committee's first top 25, but as of right now, coach Ryan Silverfield's team is the Group of Five representative that will make the final 12 after the huge win over South Florida.
There's a long way to go before they can secure that mantle, though.
The quest to make the final 12 actually begins tonight when they host a Tulane team that was a much bigger part of the conversation before last week's loss at UTSA. The Green Wave were awful in that showdown but they're more than capable of winning this game.
In a look-ahead game prior to the win over USF, Memphis were stunned by UAB, so anything can happen. The Tigers also still have Navy remaining on their schedule, but the biggest test should come from Jon Sumrall's team tonight.
If they get beat, not only does it knock the Tigers down a rung, it brings others very much more into the picture such as San Diego State and even a three-loss USF team.
Every single game is a must-win if the Tigers want to be in the playoffs, and that starts with arguably the toughest remaining game on the schedule, which comes this week.
BYU at Texas Tech (November 8)
2 of 10
Right out of the gate, college football gives us some big-time impact games this week in regards to the College Football Playoff.
Perhaps the biggest is BYU traveling to Texas Tech in a game that will give the winner a leg up in the Big 12 race and could potentially knock the Red Raiders out of the picture altogether.
Right now, both the Cougars (No. 7 seed) and the Red Raiders (No. 8 seed) are firmly in the bracket, but it's anybody's guess what happens in the wild-and-wacky league.
One thing is certain: BYU coach Kalani Sitake doesn't mince words when it comes to the perceived slight given to his team by the committee, so the Cougars would love to make a statement. Nothing would be a bigger one than a W over a team expected to win the Big 12.
Last year at this time, the Cougars were unbeaten until a late-season slide, and they have a spotless ledger again this year, but going to Lubbock will be by far their biggest test of the season.
If they can win, they'll almost assure themselves a spot in the playoff barring any slip-up other than in the conference title game. TTU likely needs to either run the regular-season table or win the title game.
This one will make things a whole lot clearer in the Big 12 and give us an idea of whether this league can get two in the final 12.
Texas A&M at Missouri (November 8)
3 of 10
Texas A&M had to feel a little big disrespected when the first rankings came out and the unbeaten Aggies were behind Ohio State and Indiana. But none of that really matters.
Keep winning, and they'll get a bye.
The first rung on the rest of that ladder to the top of the college football world is this weekend when coach Mike Elko's Aggies go on the road to Columbia, Missouri, to face the Tigers, which came in at No. 22 in the first CFP rankings.
It's going to be an uphill battle for two-loss Mizzou to make it with quarterback Beau Pribula out for the foreseeable future with a dislocated ankle. True freshman Matt Zollers will be the starter for coach Eli Drinkwitz's team on Saturday.
But that doesn't mean it's a gimme game for A&M. Mizzou is a quality team on both sides of the ball, and Zollers looked more than capable in relief of Pribula when he was injured against Vanderbilt.
For the Aggies, they don't have to win to stay on track for the playoffs, but they do need a victory to keep surging. There's still a game against rival Texas later in the year, too. Much like the Longhorns, the Tigers will be playing for their playoff lives this weekend.
That makes them extremely dangerous. Win this one, and Coach Drink's team is right back in the picture.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (November 15)
4 of 10
Regardless of starting the season with consecutive losses (to Miami and Texas A&M), the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are still adored by the committee.
They obviously are looking at the facts that the Irish were the national runners-up a season ago, their offense has been explosive all season and the defense is drastically improved since it was truly terrible to start the season.
Whether you agree with the Irish being 10th in the rankings or not, they look like a quality team capable of beating most teams right now. But any other loss will end their chances to make the final 12.
The biggest remaining test for Notre Dame comes next week when they travel to play a Pittsburgh team that has turned its season around by inserting true freshman Matt Heintschel under center at quarterback. He is a gunslinger who can make all the throws.
This is liable to be a shootout.
Don't sleep on the Panthers possibly having an outside shot at the playoffs themselves. They're 24th in the initial playoff rankings, and while there are a few ACC teams ahead of them, at 5-1, the Panthers still have a chance to make the ACC title game.
The game against the Irish won't have any bearing on that, but it would be a resume win, and it also could knock Notre Dame back into the realm of the bowl bids.
Texas at Georgia (November 15)
5 of 10
Like several teams we've discussed already, it's do-or-die time every week for the Texas Longhorns.
That's surprising to us all considering the Longhorns were the preseason No. 1-ranked team, but it's been anything but easy for coach Steve Sarkisian's team, which lost to Ohio State to open the year and also were upset by Florida on the road.
Since then, though, quarterback Arch Manning is settling in, young playmakers are beginning to make plays and a fast, talented defense is doing what was always expected. They thumped Vanderbilt last week and are beginning to play like they're capable.
This is a dangerous team a lot of pundits have forgotten about.
But how serious of a playoff contender are they? We'll find out on November 15 when they travel to Athens to take on the one-loss Georgia Bulldogs, whose only setback came against Alabama.
But this Bulldogs team hasn't been the dominant one of years' past. They're vulnerable, and though Kirby Smart's team is finding ways to win and is firmly in the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, there are cracks in the armor.
If Texas wins, it will keep its hopes alive and put them again on the line against rival Texas A&M. Georgia likely would be forced to travel during the first round of the playoffs and could even be staring at not making it if they lost again. This is a big one.
Oklahoma at Alabama (November 15)
6 of 10
Coach Brent Venables' Oklahoma Sooners' backs are firmly against the wall, but they've already come out swinging haymakers.
With two losses, OU can't afford another setback, or it will find itself staring down a long, dark tunnel to get back into the chase. The Sooners also have unquestionably the most difficult remaining schedule of any SEC bubble teams.
As of right now—like Texas—they aren't in. However—like Texas—they will be if they win out.
Last weekend's first "elimination" game came on the road against fellow bubble team Tennessee, and Oklahoma played its best, most complete game of the year in a 33-27 win over the Vols.
After a bye week, though, things get tougher. The Sooners head to Tuscaloosa and enter a hornet's nest against Alabama against a Crimson Tide team hungry to avenge last year's upset loss in Norman that knocked them out of the playoffs. The Tide are firmly in and would love to spoil OU's chances.
With games against Missouri and LSU after that, even another Sooners win over UA wouldn't guarantee a playoff berth, but the game against Bama is easily the toughest one yet. It's yet another rugged battle in a grueling, uphill path to make it into the final 12.
There will be a ton on the line in a hostile environment, and the Sooners can make a major statement with another win over Kalen DeBoer.
Georgia at Georgia Tech (November 28)
7 of 10
So, as much as we tried to not put teams on this list twice, the Georgia Bulldogs happen to make it due to their end-of-the-year opponent and Clean, Old Fashioned Hate rival.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets—despite an 8-1 record—came in at No. 17 on the initial College Football Playoff rankings after getting whipped last weekend by a mediocre North Carolina State team.
The Yellow Jackets' only real path to the playoffs is to win the ACC championship game in an almost-certain one-bid league. But let's say they host the Dawgs and beat them in a year where they're very beatable. Then, they play in the ACC title game and narrowly lose.
At that point, it's not out of the question that the committee would consider a two-loss Tech team with a signature win over Georgia and a loss to a fellow one- or two-loss team in the ACC championship.
Coach Brent Key, quarterback Haynes King and Co. are at their best when nobody believes they can win, and nobody will be picking them to beat UGA.
This is a Ramblin' Wreck team that not only needs to win but needs style-point victories. An end-of-the-year romp of the Dawgs would provide both and be the optics needed to secure the possibility of an at-large bid.
Oh, and if UGA loses to Texas, it could be a game that the Dawgs need to win to make the playoffs. Oh, the potential storylines.
Oregon at Washington (November 29)
8 of 10
While everybody focuses on the guaranteed Big Ten teams at the top of the rankings with Ohio State and Indiana, the rest of the league should feel slighted.
You've got the 7-1 Ducks way back at ninth due to the fact their best win is over 5-3 Northwestern, and there are several opportunities for them to move up the list with games against Iowa (this week), USC and Washington.
That last game of the year in Seattle against the Huskies is the one that made the list. At that point, you're either going to have a one-loss Ducks team as a lock or a two-loss Ducks team in a must-win game.
Additionally, the Huskies (23rd) are right there with USC (19th), Iowa (20th), and Michigan (21st) as the two-loss Big Ten teams with potential remaining for some showcase wins that can impress the committee and move them up the rankings.
Of course, teams ranked that low with two losses already have no chance if they get beat again, but all four teams still have essentially a round-robin's worth of games against one another to impress the committee or depress their fans. Oregon could join the ranks of the two-loss teams with another setback.
Washington is a wild card here with so much explosive offensive talent. The Huskies have the ability to beat any team any Saturday, and there are a lot of twists and turns before this game that could make it very interesting.
The guess here is it winds up having major playoff implications.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee (November 29)
9 of 10
Pretty much the entire college football world would be abuzz if Clark Lea somehow got perennial bottom-dweller Vanderbilt into the College Football Playoff.
The bad news for the Commodores is after last weekend's loss to Texas where they weren't really competitive until a frantic fourth quarter, there aren't a lot of remaining opportunities to impress the committee.
They're ranked 16th in the initial playoff standings, behind Texas and Oklahoma among the two-loss SEC bubble teams. Games at home against Auburn and at Kentucky need to produce wins, but closing the year in Neyland Stadium is interesting.
Vanderbilt needs the Vols to win out until the end and then beat them on the road to get a huge rivalry win that also gives the 'Dores style points heading into the final rankings.
With Diego Pavia leading the way, VU is a major darling among college football fans, but some of its big early-season wins haven't aged well. The Commodores need some help to make it in, but with Oklahoma's and Texas' remaining schedule, VU is sitting nicely if it just keeps winning.
If the Commodores finish the year at 10-2, it's hard to see them not making it into the final 12. It would be extra sweet for them to make it into the playoffs by beating the team they hate the most.
Ohio State at Michigan (November 29)
10 of 10
Year in and year out, there's really no bigger college football rivalry than The Game between Ohio State and Michigan.
Recently, that tilt has been tinged maize and blue.
The Wolverines have won the past four games against the Buckeyes, including last year's stunning victory in coach Sherrone Moore's first season, which was largely a rebuilding campaign.
It may have hurt the Buckeyes to lose last year, but they used it as a springboard to a national championship and were a veritable buzzsaw all the way through the College Football Playoff.
This season looks very similar. The Buckeyes are unbeaten, ranked No. 1 and don't look like they're going to have any issues with anybody on the schedule before the season finale against the Wolverines. They go to the Big House, which is always hostile.
Meanwhile, if Michigan keeps winning, it could be playing for a College Football Playoff berth at 10-2. The Wolverines are currently 7-2 breaking in freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, but crazy things happen in that rivalry game.
You know the committee would love it if four Big Ten teams were deserving of playoff berths, which could even the field with SEC representatives. As mentioned before, several teams have the ability to make it from that league.
But there would be no bigger exclamation than Michigan upsetting Ohio State—again.
