Liver's 2009 NFL Week One Picks

With fire season in full effect here in lovely Los Angeles, the Liver smokes less then he ever has. With all of the lovely smoke that you can breathe, free of charge too, it’s no surprise.

It’s a weird, scary time to be alive in this f***ed up world. Does it really seem like 9/11 was 8 years ago to the day? It still feels uncomfortably fresh EVERY DAY. The Liver got choked up when Harry Connick Jr. did the National Anthem for the Steelers/Titans game last night as they honored those that were lost on Flight 93 that crashed in Stonycreek Township in Somerset County, Pennsylvania about 80 miles southeast of Pittsburgh. Actually whenever any 9/11 footage is shown, the Liver has to excuse himself from wherever he is. It’s not just the pain of that day and the innocents that died but the thousands more that died and will die because they thought they were volunteering for a war that was going to right that wrong.

I know I’m not the only one but I think everyone can literally divide their life and who they are now into two parts; there’s the person you were before and the person you were after. I miss the person I was before. I miss the world that was before. I can’t think of many things that have transpired as a result of 9/11 that I would call good or inspiring; a bullshit war that will go down as my generation’s Vietnam in terms of wasted lives and nonstop lies, an economic depression that has ruined countless lives that we’re still getting out of, Patriot Acts, insecurity, paranoia and weariness.

And then people wonder why the Liver would rather invest in a vasectomy then bring a child into this world.  We all need to accept the fact that we’ll never get that world or that person that we knew back. Things may get better in time but it’ll never be the same. Oh; am I bringing you down with too much f***ing reality dear readers?

Whoever and wherever you are today; take a minute or 20 and think about that day and how you and your world changed in the blink of an eye. If you have kids, make sure they know the significance of this day. Want to talk about some football now? Fine; have it your way.

Opening Sunday in the NFL brings with it many emotions such as nervous anticipation, nausea, uncertainty and stress. Wait a minute, that’s a normal morning for the Liver. The point is it’s that one time of the year where EVERY fan feels like their team has a chance if for no other reason than the fact that you can’t tell jack shit from the preseason.

This season will be a different kind for the Liver. Not only will he be conscious for this one but he has absolutely ZERO expectations for his pro football team. At least Texas will be playing Florida for the BCS Championship. Oh wait, I’m talking college football where there is NO playoff system and the bowls are decided by coaches and computers. 

For those that are new readers let me sum up the Liver mystique quickly. If you’re the type of guy who prefers a cigarette, a beer, the first 15 minutes of ESPN  News and a nap after sex rather than some bland, pointless post-coital conversation/cuddling with your girlfriend/wife/mistress or maybe all three, then you’ve come to the right place.

A word of caution, wagering wise, when it comes to the first few weeks of the season; many well respected handicappers, of which I am surely NOT, get off to miserable NFL starts. Stats and match-up handicapping are important in football but analysis is near impossible until you see how a club’s on-field product looks. Pre-season doesn’t mean shit and should not be taken into account at all.  
 
You learn much more about a team after two games then you do going over their free agent signings and draft picks. So if the Liver has a less than stellar start to the season, don’t lose faith. If you want straight-up winners, I can give you straight up winners at a 60% or over clip. But that’s boring and there’s no risk. The Liver may be a lot things but he doesn’t shy away from risk or trouble. Actually they both know where I am 24 hours a day.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Greg McMackin, the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Honorable drunken mention goes to Jose Flores. That would be the Bolivian religious fanatic who hijacked a jetliner from Cancun as it landed in Mexico City this past Wednesday with a juice can he said was a bomb. Apparently Flores was divinely inspired because 9-9-9 is 666 upside down.  Flores is also a Christian music singer/recovering drug addict/convicted armed robber who in videos on You Tube sings about quitting drugs and finding God. His wife said to authorities that he had “always told me that he was looking for a way to attract the attention of the media…he always told me that he was waiting for a signal from God to do something.”

People die everyday for NOTHING yet this attention-seeking f**k still lives? As Harvey Keitel says to God at the beginning of Mean Streets; “Well, we play by your rules, don't we? Well, don't we?”


Sunday, September 13, 2009

Miami at Atlanta (-4)

Both teams are coming off of too-good-to-be-true seasons. If you’re wondering which one will crash-land back to earth, my money is on the Dolphins. They benefitted from a Tom Brady-less Patriots, a Jets team that folded in December under the 39-year-old arm of Brett Favre and the whole Wildcat-bit which will be copied ad nauseum by just about every team in the league. At least with Atlanta, they have a QB of the future (Matt Ryan) that can only get better, a dominant running game (Michael Turner) and one of the best tight-ends (Tony Gonzales) in the game. Pick: Atlanta


Denver at Cincinnati (-4 ½)

It’s hard to think of another organization in NFL history that has gone from one of the more respected in the game to Keystone Kops in one off-season. Such is the lament of the Denver Broncos who fired Mike Shanahan after their December collapse and replaced him with Josh McDaniels. Then, in what seems like a bad lover’s spat, Jay “DUH” Cutler has his feelings hurt because he’s not consulted about the coaching change, acts like a spurned woman and demands a trade which the Broncos oblige him with. And the prize in return is…Kyle Orton.

Then local police favorite Brandon Marshall gets HIS feelings hurt and demands a trade. He, however, is not accommodated and promptly does his best T.O., Ocho Cinco, Randy Moss impersonation and half-asses it in training camp. If Denver had any balls left in their sack, they’d Keyshawn/T.O. his worthless ass and deactivate him for the season. Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis continues to steal money from the Bengals. Since their 11-5 2005 season, they have gone 19-28-1. Carson Palmer can’t stay healthy, Houshmandzadeh is gone, Ocho Cinco is still overrated and their defense (which was supposed to be a Marvin Lewis Blue Plate Special) can’t keep offenses off the field. Pick: Cincinnati

Minnesota at Cleveland (+4)

Another reason why former Bill Belichick assistant coaches should NOT be allowed to be a head coach; they think they can get away with the same arrogant, piece of shit behavior that Belichick gets away with. As much as the Liver wants to see his head on a stick, one has to give the cheater…ahhh coach credit. He’s got three Super Bowls. And they were all won by a field goal. Didn’t Cleveland learn their lesson from the Romeo Crennel days? Has any former Patriots assistant coach done anything as a head coach?

Oh wait, I forgot Charlie Weis was setting the world on fire at Notre Dame. Eric Mangini SO wants to be Belichick that he’s even adopted the whole Judge Smails “You’ll get nothing, and like it” bit with the media when it comes to injuries or who’s gonna be his starting QB. Oh, did you hear that Brett Favre is playing QB for the Vikings? Nice crack back block a few weeks back you piece of shit. Enjoy the circus Vikings fans, especially when that old hillbilly bastard starts to fall apart in December. Pick: Minnesota

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)

And how does Jack Del Rio still have a job as head coach in this league? This is the same guy who put an axe and tree stump in his locker room to try and inspire his players. Check. This was a team that had Super Bowl aspirations last year and instead came out with a half-ass effort and basically quit by mid-season? Check. Meanwhile Tony Dungy has gone on to greener pastures as an NBC studio analyst that will bore EVERYONE and Michael Vick mentor. Anybody want to put an over/under on how many curse words Jim Caldwell uses on the sidelines? Anybody want to wager on whether the Colts have solved their seemingly eternal problem on stopping the run?  Anybody want to wager on whether the Colts will have an eighth consecutive 12-win season followed by a one and out in the playoffs?  That being said, the AFC South supremacy should return to its rightful home in Indy this season. Whether or not they can run the ball or stop it will determine how far they go in January.  Pick: Jacksonville


Detroit at New Orleans (-13)

It says something about a team and its fans when they readily admit to you that the team F***ING SUCKS. Yet they can’t turn away from watching. Such is the lament of a Lions fan. 0-16 last season just took it to new lows that can never be replicated or atoned for. Even the inaugural Jimmy Johnson/Jerry Jones 1989 Cowboys team, which I thought was the worst ever to grace a football field, won A GAME. Think of all the other awful NFL teams over the years that could at least win A GAME. This is how shitty that 2008 Lions team was; they lost their home games by an average of 21.4 points. They lost by ten or more points ten times, 20 or more points five times. They gave up the second most points in NFL history. Let that one sink in for a minute. Their offense was 30th in the league overall, their defense 32nd. This was NFL history more improbable then the Patriots going 16-0 in the 2007 regular season before LOSING the Super Bowl. Never tire of that one.

Even if they had finished the deal and gone 19-0, which story would you rather hear, watch or listen to? A good friend of mine, who just happens to be a Lions fan and might have psychic powers, actually chronicled the 2008 season game by game in a book. I say he’s sitting on a gold mine when that gets published. People WANT to read about misery and ineptitude especially in today’s bankrupt, A.D.D. culture. It makes them feel good. That being said Jim Schwartz has the easiest job in the NFL this year. One win and you’ve already improved over last season. Whether Matthew “Silver Spoon” Stafford is their QB of the future remains to be seen. As for the Saints, their chances for success rely on their defense’s ability to STOP ANYONE. We know what the offense can do. If that defense can do anything this year, they’ve got legitimate playoff hopes. Pick: Detroit

Dallas at Tampa Bay (+6)

Tampa Bay is in a rebuilding year so if they win 5 games this season it’ll be a miracle. You know you’re off to bad start when you fire your offensive coordinator a week before the season starts AND you name Byron Leftwich your starting QB. That smile that you’ll see on Jon Gruden’s face Monday nights this season; there’s a good reason for it. He got off easy. As for the Dallas Cowboys? How about I start with this bold statement; if Dallas loses this game the season is OVER! On a positive note; thank God the circus has left town and has relocated to Minnesota and Filthy. That’s where the positive vibes end.

The circus may be gone in Dallas but this team still has some repentance that must be done for that 44-6 flogging they took the last time it was on the field when it was a do-or-die game. Wade Phillips is still the head coach, at least for one more year. That means one more wasted year. This f***ing lame-duck hillbilly coach said that having a punt-blocking scoreboard is an advantage for his team. Everything he says in press conferences and does during the course of a game makes me cringe. It takes a special kind of coach to make every jerk off in the stands, homes and bars to feel like they could do a better job AND be right.

Tony Romo is still the starting QB who gets off to great starts but then when December rolls around is just concerned with GETTING OFF. To say this is a “show me” season for him is an understatement. T.O. is gone as is his drama but so are his TDs. And you’re telling me that Roy Williams is gonna fill those shoes? This team’s success on offense will be on the ground with the three-headed monster of Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. If they can be effective, it might negate the lack of depth at wide receiver. The defense had the most sacks in the NFL last season but was near the bottom when it came to take-aways. The defense has to cause more turnovers.

This team is not NEARLY as talented on paper as last year’s team. But maybe they’ll actually have a heart and GIVE A SHIT ABOUT PLAYING, which last year’s team clearly did not when times got tough after a 3-0 start out of the gates. How tough were they? They went 6-9 the rest of the way including the traditional Cowboys December and January swoon. Some of you out there know what it’s like for your pro-football team to win a f***ing playoff game. I have to watch DVDs, VHS tapes and ESPN Classic to remind myself.

Dallas is, right now, the third best team in their division. That division, the NFC East, just happens to be the toughest division in football so a key injury to the Giants or Eagles could prove to be beneficial. Let me also say when you’re already looking to other teams’ injuries as benefits to your own, your team might not be very good. That is why the 2009 Dallas Cowboys are going to have to show me something in December before I get too emotionally involved. As the Master Control Program would say, after the 2008 debacle,” I’ve gotten 2,415 times smarter since then.” Pick: Dallas 

Philadelphia at Carolina (+1)

So the Michael Vick circus is in Filthy. Perfect. Now I have to deal with his dog-killing ass twice a year in the division. At least that means more people will be rooting for Filthy’s failure though. Filthy was already a good team without him. If he can do HALF of what they’re hoping he can do, they just might be good enough to overtake the Giants for NFC East supremacy and be one of the best in the NFC. Donovan McNabb will need to have a strong season or else he’ll hear the Filthy dogs barking for Vick to replace him. How the defense reacts to not having their emotional leaders off the field (the recently deceased Jim Johnson) and on the field (Brian Dawkins having departed for Denver) will be the real subplot of the Eagles’ season.

As for Carolina, they showed glimpses last season of being a dominant team. Unfortunately their late season collapse highlighted by that putrid showing against Arizona in the playoffs leaves one with more questions than answers as far as what to expect this season. This could be Delhomme’s last season as their QB unless he can show up in big games which he did not do last year.  Pick: Filthy


Kansas City at Baltimore (-13)

Baltimore defied the odds last year as they went to the AFC Championship game with rookie QB Joe Flacco. Unfortunately they have a problem with that team in Pittsburgh. If Flacco can beat the Steelers just ONCE, then that might be the confidence booster he needs that can help take the Ravens to the top of the AFC. The defense will be as savage as ever so the pressure will be squarely on Joe. As for Kansas City, when the best thing you did in the off-season was fire Chan Gailey as your offensive coordinator, you might be in deep shit. It could be worse though Chiefs fans, he could’ve been your HEAD COACH for two years. Pick: Kansas City


N.Y. Jets at Houston (-4 ½)

Calm down Jets fans. I wouldn’t go throwing around Joe Nameth/Mark Sanchez comparisons just yet. What happened with Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco last season are the exceptions rather then the rule when it comes to rookie QBs. Sanchez might be good but not this year. And you play in the same division as the Patriots. The defense should be improved under Rex Ryan as he brings his savage defensive mentality from Baltimore. Houston’s Matt Schaub just might be the most fragile QB I’ve seen play since Chris Chandler. He has to play 16 games for Houston to have any hopes of success. Then again, they play in the same division with the Colts and Titans so expect another 8-8 season for the Texans. Pick: Houston


Washington at N.Y. Giants (-6 ½)

The Giants should challenge Filthy for the NFC East crown. Their defensive line is healthier than they ever were last season and the running game is still one of the best in football. However, who is Eli gonna throw the ball to? The Redskins are being called the best last-place team in football this year. I think that means they’re going to be last in their division. Pick: Washington

San Francisco at Arizona (-6 ½)

Arizona finds itself, despite the curse of the Super Bowl loser looming over them, to be NFC West Champions BEFORE they’ve played a game. It helps when you play in a division with teams like the Rams, 49’rs, and Seahawks. It’s almost a shame that this division has to field a playoff team. In a way I’m glad that Michael Crabtree has turned out to be a selfish, greedy asshole who will more then likely never even approach the level of talent people thought he would be coming out of Texas Tech. Unfortunately that means more college highlights of his career like THAT F***ING TD he caught against Texas last year that cost them a shot at a National Championship. Pick: San Francisco

St. Louis at Seattle (-8 ½)

Why even bother playing games with NFC West opponents? St. Louis might be the worst team in football this year and Seattle won’t be much better.  Both of these teams need to work on their war faces because as Gunny Sergeant Hartman would say, ”You still don’t scare me! Work on it!” Pick: St. Louis

Chicago at Green Bay (-3 ½)

Thank God for Jay Cutler. It’s nice to have someone to REALLY hate in this league. He already had the air of a petulant child that sulked around like you just took away his Tonka toy. After orchestrating his departure from Denver, it’s a fact now; this guy is a DOUCHEBAG EXTRAORDINAIRE. As for Green Bay, it seems like they are the sentimental favorite to not just go to the Super Bowl but win it. That’s how much people HATE Brett Favre now. I hope Aaron Kampman rips his head off and puts it on a stick on November 1 when the Vikings go to Lambeau. The NFC North, with the exception of the Lions, should be one of the best divisions in football this year. Pick: Chicago


Monday, September 14, 2009

Buffalo at New England (-11)

Well, karma was a bitch last year for the Patriots. Their GQ QB got his leg torn up in the first quarter of the first game. How sweet it was. Then Matt Cassel came out of nowhere and the Patriots STILL went 11-5 and MISSED the playoffs. Now Brady is back and seemingly so is their running the score up offense from 2007. The question is are they gonna stop anybody on defense? Oh wait, just go and make a trade with the Raiders and everything should be fine. They make the Memphis Grizzlies front office look like a well-oiled machine.

Honestly though, if the Patriots defense can make SOME stops and of course Mr. Gisele stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe they won’t be there with the Steelers and Colts atop the AFC when January comes around.

Buffalo’s hopes for the season have just about disappeared along with their offensive coordinator who completed the trifecta of fired offensive coordinators last week. I’m sure the offense will be just fine now. As for Buffalo fans, all I can say is enjoy a declining T.O. that won’t even give you a good first season. Why? Because your team SUCKS. You know that song where you have T.O. and your team sucks?  The one that goes something like “The 49s, Eagles and Cowboys start losing and he says they’re not getting him the ball enough.” This is a guy who can’t even be a good teammate on a F***ING REALITY T.V. SHOW.  Pick: New England

San Diego at Oakland (+9 ½)

It isn’t often that a team can claim their division BEFORE THEY’VE PLAYED A GAME (see Arizona) but San Diego finds themselves in that enviable position. There’s more drama in asking a salesclerk at Frys for help then watching the NFC and AFC West divisions this year. Of course it helps to play in the AFC West with such greatness as the Chiefs, Broncos and of course, the Raiders.

If I was a Raiders fan, I would ask for a temporary fan exemption much like I did with the New York Knicks until a few years ago. Basically that exemption states that until say Isiah Thomas or Al Davis is purged forever from my team that I have the right to root for another team. Al Davis is so incontinent that he continues to restock the Patriots talent pool every year. The Patriots have turned a 2nd and a 4th round pick as well as the recently jettisoned Richard Seymour into Randy Moss, Derrick Burgess and a 2011 first round pick. Let that sink in Raiders fans.  I’m sure many Raiders fans ask themselves this same question but “Why can’t Al Davis just die so the Raiders can be taken seriously again or at least be allowed to make a trade?”

On a side note; THANK YOU ESPN for getting rid of Kornheiser. This will be the first year in a long time that I actually watch MNF with the sound up. Pick: San Diego