Ranking the Best Bargain-Bin Buys Remaining on the 2015 NBA Free-Agent Market
The wildest spending of NBA free agency is over, and now teams in need of talent must turn to cheaper alternatives to fill out their rosters.
Surprisingly, there are plenty of useful players still available. And many of them will come cheap.
Cost and production are the two categories that matter here, and they operate on individual sliding scales. A player making $1 million per season isn't necessarily a better bargain than one collecting $5 million. If their levels of production were the same, then that $1 million player would absolutely be the better value.
But if the $5 million player was a rotation-quality contributor while the $1 million player never got off the pine, that's different.
Bargains are all about getting the biggest return on investment.
Most of the following bargain-bin options will see limited playing time wherever they land, though some will crack rotations if they end up in the right spot.
One of them will cost substantially more than the rest, but as you'll see, that won't preclude him from ranking high on the list.
10. Darrell Arthur, PF
1 of 10
Last Team: Denver Nuggets
2014-15 Stats: 6.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 steals
A safe and steady frontcourt presence, Darrell Arthur collected $3.5 million from the Nuggets last year. In exchange, he defended both forward positions reasonably well and didn't do a whole lot else. In prior years, Arthur had flashed a decent outside stroke.
If he rediscovers that aspect of his game, he could slot into a rotation as a fourth big man on plenty of teams, perhaps commanding something close to the salary he earned last year.
if Arthur's offensive game continues to slide, he won't be worth nearly that much.
The Nuggets want him back, according to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post, and they'll have even more money to pay him after saving some cash in the Ty Lawson trade reported by Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.
Getting the price right will be key, but Arthur can contribute as long as he's not asked to do too much.
9. Ish Smith, PG
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Last Team: Philadelphia 76ers
2014-15 Stats: 6.1 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.7 steals
In terms of dollar-for-dollar production, Ish Smith's recent track record puts him ahead of Darrell Arthur.
The lightning-fast point guard has yet to make $1 million in any season of his career (he collected a prorated $981,000 last year), and he had some eye-opening moments after signing with the Sixers midway through the season.
With averages of 12.0 points and 6.1 assists, Smith produced like a rotation player. And he did it while running some effective pick-and-rolls and utilizing his unparalleled speed in the open floor.
Too small to make much of an impact defensively and inaccurate from the perimeter, Smith (6'0", 175 lbs) doesn't profile as a starter anywhere. And on most teams, he'd be a third guard at best. But if he's available for anywhere close to $1 million per season, that's a steal.
League-minimum players who can actually contribute—or even play significant minutes over a short stretch to cover for injuries—are hard to find. Smith's brief stint in Philly last year indicated he might be one such player.
8. Andre Miller, PG
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Last Team: Sacramento Kings
2014-15 Stats: 4.4 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 50.0 FG%
You have to assume Andre Miller will wind up back with head coach George Karl and the Kings, where he spent the last 30 games of the 2014-15 season. Karl is familiar with Miller, and based on his decision to bring him on after taking over the Kings last year, he likes having him around.
Miller seems less particular about where he plays, which could actually increase his value.
Eric Freeman of Yahoo Sports explained: "Unlike (Jason) Terry and other near-retirement vets, Miller has a shown a willingness to play for lottery teams and could benefit a squad looking to develop a young point guard."
It's true: The Professor has been on some bad teams in Denver, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and, last year, Sacramento. If you need to rest a starter for 15-to-20 minutes per night, Miller's your man off the bench. And he doesn't seem to care about contention.
Perhaps Miller's limited game isn't worth the $4.6 million he made last season, but if anyone gets hold of him for the minimum, he'll be well worth it.
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7. Jason Terry, PG
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Last Team: Houston Rockets
2014-15 Stats: 7.0 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 39.0 3PT%
It's hard to know whether the Rockets' acquisition of Ty Lawson makes Jason Terry's return more or less likely. On the one hand, his playing time figures to diminish significantly behind Patrick Beverley and Lawson. But on the other, Terry is in ring-chase mode at this stage of his career.
If Lawson gets things in order, his presence improves Houston's chances of a title.
For what it's worth, ESPN.com's Marc Stein heard the Lawson deal increases the odds of a Terry return.
Either way, Terry has plenty to offer any suitor. He can still knock down threes at an elite rate, and he's got loads of postseason wisdom to impart to younger players. He'll cost substantially more than either Darrell Arthur or Ish Smith, but neither of those two has the playoff pedigree Terry brings.
He made $5.9 million last season, and if a team can snatch him up for less than that, Terry's a better value than any guard so far—including Andre Miller.
6. Norris Cole, PG
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Last Team: New Orleans Pelicans
2014-15 Stats: 7.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.8 steals
A $3 million qualifying offer made Norris Cole a restricted free agent, per Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus, which means he'll be back in New Orleans on a reasonable deal if worse comes to worst. That'd be a good rate for the Pellies, and the only thing better would be inking Cole to a two- or three-year pact for somewhere between $3-4 million per season.
Either way, it doesn't appear Cole is going anywhere, and it also seems like the 26-year-old's going to be a relatively cheap rotation player going forward.
Cole's not perfect. His 37.8 percent three-point stroke in New Orleans last season was significantly better than his career average, and it's not clear he'll sustain it. But this is a player with tons of championship experience and a high motor who'll at least speed the game up when he's on the floor.
That's a good thing for the Pelicans, who should be looking to push the pace much more under head coach Alvin Gentry.
Perhaps Cole wouldn't be such a great value elsewhere. But he fits into what the Pelicans want to do, and the potential price makes him a better bargain than the much older Jason Terry and Andre Miller.
5. Dorell Wright, SF
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Last Team: Portland Trail Blazers
2014-15 Stats: 4.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 38.0 3PT%
The NBA's ever-growing preference for three-point shooting has been well-documented. The four conference finalists last season ranked first, second, third and fourth in percentage of regular-season offense generated via the the long ball, according to NBA.com.
Dorell Wright may be a one-dimensional player, but his one dimension is desirable—especially if you're a team like the Los Angeles Lakers, whose small forward depth chart includes Nick Young and Anthony Brown.
"He’s one of the better floor-spacing shooters still out there—more than half his attempts came from three last season, and he hit 38 percent of them," wrote Kurt Helin of Pro Basketball Talk.
That shooting won't cost much.
Wright has never made more than $4.1 million in a season, and the Blazers paid him just $3.1 million last year. Someone with a need for perimeter accuracy from a fourth wing could scoop him up for next to nothing.
4. Kevin Seraphin, PF
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Last Team: Washington Wizards
2014-15 Stats: 6.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 51.3 FG%
I wrote here that I thought Kevin Seraphin might be worth $5-7 million on the free-agent market, and given the expenditures teams have made to this point, it seems unlikely he'll get anywhere near that on his next contract.
That's disappointing news for Seraphin, who is just 25 years old and profiles as a legitimate rotation big man. But it's a positive development for anyone looking to sign him. The market has spoken, and even if Seraphin's production in limited minutes suggests he's worth the mid-level exception, he's going to sign for less than that.
It's possible teams have held off to this point because they're concerned about his playing-time demands.
"I definitely want a chance to be a starter," he told J. Michael of CSNWashington.com. "I definitely want to be somewhere I have a chance to be a starter."
At the same time, a talented 25-year-old should want to fill a bigger role.
If Seraphin signs for $3-4 million per season, he could produce like a much costlier player. That's a significant value.
3. Rasual Butler, SF
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Last Team: Washington Wizards
2014-15 Stats: 7.7 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 38.7 3PT%
Rasual Butler played in 75 games for the Wizards last season, drilling threes efficiently and helping out a little on the boards.
He's not a major difference-maker. But he's probably more impactful than Dorell Wright, and he might cost about half as much. His salary of just $1.4 million last season makes Wright's paycheck look massive by comparison.
At 36, Butler isn't likely to improve. But even with a moderate age-related decline, he'll still be a borderline rotation player. Remember, the Wizards were a playoff team last year, and Butler filled a significant role for them on the perimeter.
When you're paying a guy with that kind of recent success as if he's an end-of-the-bench afterthought, that's a good investment. Better than any we've seen so far.
2. Luc Mbah a Moute, SF
9 of 10
Last Team: Philadelphia 76ers
2014-15 Stats: 9.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals
Luc Mbah a Moute wouldn't have been on this list at all if he'd passed his physical with the Kings. But he failed it, and Sacramento voided his contract, according to InsideHoops.com.
Mbah a Moute's contract was for one year and just $1.55 million, per Spotrac.com. If that's what he commanded before a failed physical, imagine what a team could get him for now.
There's obviously a health risk involved, but Mbah a Moute played 67 games for the Sixers last season, and you can see above that he made solid statistical contributions. His best asset is his defensive ability, and that doesn't even show up in his basic statistics.
A team could float a non-guaranteed deal for next to nothing, and Mbah a Moute would basically have no choice but to take it. If he were to produce anything close to his numbers from last year, he'd be a bigger bargain than anyone we've listed so far—not because he's certain to produce, but because any team signing him could get him for peanuts.
1. J.R. Smith, SG
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Last Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 Stats: 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 38.3 3PT%
J.R. Smith had $6.4 million in the bag for 2015-16 if he'd only opted into the final year of his contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Unflinchingly confident, he thought he could do better.
Apparently, Smith miscalculated. The shooting guard, who averaged 12.7 points and hit 39 percent of his threes after coming to Cleveland in a January trade, remains unsigned. With most teams having long since spent their cap space elsewhere, his options have dwindled.
So has his expected salary.
This is a teaching moment, according to former NBA executive Bobby Marks: "The J.R. Smith situation is a case study for all future players with options. Never opt out of a contract without a deal in your back pocket."
The Cavaliers are comically deep into the luxury tax, which means they'll pay substantial penalties for every dollar they spend from here on out. But if you remove that element, the chance to get Smith back at or below the $6 million per year he would have gotten makes him an enormous bargain.
He's the best guard on the market—a legitimate weapon for a contender who can come off the bench for instant offense and start when necessary. He's volatile, makes plenty of mistakes and might have a little too high of an opinion of his own game.
But Smith is an immense talent who'll likely cost less than he made a year ago. And his value to the Cavs remains extremely high, even after they inked Mo Williams.
Maybe it seems crazy, but relative to what he can now demand in salary, Smith is free agency's biggest remaining bargain.
Salary info courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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