UFC 321 B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC heavyweight title will finally be up for grabs again this weekend.

The title was last on the line when former champ Jon Jones defeated Stipe Miocic in New York City last November. However, that fight was rife with controversy, as many fans considered Tom Aspinall—who held the interim belt at the time—to be the division's true champ.

Aspinall, who had been chasing a fight with Jones for years to no avail, was finally promoted to undisputed champion earlier this year, when his would-be rival announced his retirement and relinquished his belt.

It took some time to put together, but the British fighter will now defend his title against France's Ciryl Gane in the main event of UFC 321 this Saturday in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

It's a fascinating matchup, but it's not the only reason to be excited for the card.

In the co-main event, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will run it back for a spot on the strawweight throne, which longtime champ Zhang Weili vacated earlier this year to move up to flyweight.

Dern won a decision the first time they met, but Jandiroba has more momentum than anyone else in the division right now, so it's anyone's guess who is crowned.

Before we get to the title fights, we'll be treated to a high-stakes clash at bantamweight, with No. 2 contender Umar Nurmagomedov taking on the eighth-ranked Mario Bautista.

It will be Nurmagomedov's first fight since a failed title bid against dominant champ Merab Dvalishvili earlier this year, while Bautista will be looking for his eighth straight win.

That fight will be preceded by a heavyweight style clash, with rangy striker Alexander Volkov taking on ferocious grappler Jailton Almeida, and a light heavyweight showdown between veteran contender Aleksandar Rakic and undefeated up-and-comer Azamat Murzakanov.

Overall, it's an excellent card. Here's how the B/R combat sports team sees it shaking out in Abu Dhabi.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

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Tom Taylor: I see this being very one-sided, like most of Aspinall's fights. That's partly because I think he is one of the best heavyweights we've ever seen in the Octagon, and partly because Gane is a bit overrated.

Everyone's always talking about how fast Gane is, but I just don't see it. He might be fleet of foot compared to some low-level heavyweights, but he's certainly slower than Aspinall, who also hits way harder and is leagues ahead in terms of grappling skill. This just feels like a bad mismatch.

Aspinall takes Gane down and scores a submission inside a round, just like he did against Alexander Volkov a few years back.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall by submission, rd. 1 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'll concede to having been on the Gane hype train when it left the station a few years back and being so impressed with his squashes of Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa that I thought he'd compete with—and beat—a heavyweight Jon Jones who'd not fought in a long time. Obviously, that didn't work out so well.

So it would take him beating an Aspinall for me to get back on the train again. I'm not holding my breath, though.

Prediction: Aspinall by TKO, Rd. 1

Nick Akerman: Aspinall's fights always remind me of that famous Mike Tyson quote: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."

Before every single Aspinall fight, we hear about how he could lose. But how many times has that instantly changed once the bell is rung? One decent Aspinall shot and his opponents seem to lose the ability to function.

Aspinall's speed and instincts should carry him to a pretty straightforward win. Gane can get lost in his head during high-pressure fights and I just think it's all going to happen too quickly and too intensely for him.

Prediction: Aspinall TKO, Rd. 2

Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern II

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Tom Taylor: It's a bit hard to believe Mackenzie Dern beat Virna Jandiroba the first time they met, given Jandiroba is as good or better at many of the things Dern does well in MMA. Needless to say, I'm expecting a different result this time around.

I suspect Jandiroba will get the better of what are sure to be some awkward striking exchanges, and at the very least, hold her own in some very high-level grappling exchanges.

It might not always be pretty, but she'll be the clear winner after five rounds—and the new champion. 

Prediction: Jandiroba by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: When you look at their overall fight stats, it's sort of hard to believe Dern was able to win a unanimous decision—albeit a close one—when these two met five years ago.

Dern was the busier striker in that one, managing to be taken down only once, but it was only a three-rounder. I can't see her dodging competitive bullets for five this time.

Prediction: Jandiroba by split decision

Nick Akerman: I really don't see Dern having much of a chance here.

It's been four years since Jandiroba experienced defeat, and we've seen her beat some decent competition in that time. She's improved immensely since facing Dern in 2020 and will be laser-focused on proving herself against a popular name.

Prediction: Jandiroba by unanimous decision

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

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Tom Taylor: Mario Bautista has a lot of momentum behind him and will probably get a title shot if he beats Umar Nurmagomedov this weekend, but I don't think things will go the way he hopes.

I'd actually favor him against many of the fighters in the top 10, but this is a really tough matchup for him. Given his and Nurmagomedov's styles, I foresee a lot of grappling in this fight, and the Russian is just a few steps ahead in that department.

There will hopefully be some fun scrambles early on, but eventually, Nurmagomedov is going to catch something. He's got the skill, and having not fought since he lost to Merab Dvalishvili early this year, he is going to be looking to make a big statement. 

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by submission, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Given Bautista is arriving on an eight-fight heater, it's sort of remarkable that he's the biggest underdog on the main card.

However, that's a testament to the level at which Nurmagomedov is on after his own six-fight UFC run was only interrupted by a narrow nod against a champ who's considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters out there.

That's good enough for me to lean his direction, and it's never a good idea to pick against guys with that last name anyway.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: I think Tom and Lyle have summed this one up well.

There's a good chance this will be pretty gruelling for both fighters, as Umar will likely put together some strong moments on the ground, and Bautista is slippery enough to keep it interesting.

Nurmagomedov is a step above for me, though, and I'd be surprised if he was staring at back-to-back defeats by the end of the night.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision.

Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida

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Tom Taylor: Alexander Volkov has had some bad luck lately. First, he lost a decision to Ciryl Gane that he should have won. Then, in his first fight since that dubious loss, he has been matched up with Jailton Almeida—one of the worst matchups for him in the heavyweight division.

At this point, Volkov has proved he's a top-five heavyweight, but Almeida is just the kind of suffocating, powerful grappler he's always struggled with—Curtis Blaydes being another.

Unless he can keep Almeida off his hips, which seems unlikely, he's going to get taken down and submitted. 

Prediction: Jailton Almeida by submission, Rd. 2 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Remember when I said I was on the Gane hype train a few years back? Well, it was no different for Almeida after he climbed to heavyweight and started beating the Jairzinho Rozenstruiks and Derrick Lewises of the world.

Then I was cageside to see him get lit up by Blaydes, and I thought, sheesh, here we go again. The difference? I'm more impressed with what he's done in the aftermath of that loss, and I find Volkov less impressive than Aspinall.

Prediction: Almeida by submission, Rd. 1.

Nick Akerman: It's quite easy to forget just how complete Volkov's performance was in the underserved loss to Gane.

He showed a ton of decent defensive work that should stand him in good stead for what is undoubtedly a dangerous fight with Almeida.

I'm not ready to give up on him just yet, as you could conceivably say he's coming into this after the best showing of his UFC career. I'm also not convinced Jailton can take a decent shot without it significantly altering a game plan that will likely look to get Volkov out of there quickly.

Prediction: Volkov by split decision

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov

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Tom Taylor: It's so hard to get a read on Aleksandar Rakic. On the one hand, he has lost a lot of fights recently; on the other hand, all his losses have come against the highest level of competition, and he still seems to have the tools to beat many people in the light heavyweight top 15.

This fight against Murzakanov will reveal a lot about what he has in store for late 2025. If he wins, there's reason to believe he could still end up fighting for a title at some point. If he loses, we can pretty much forget about that. 

As good as Murzakanov has looked in his MMA career so far, he has never impressed me as much as Rakic has at his best. Unless Rakic has really lost a step, he should be able to control this fight over three rounds. 

Prediction: Rakic by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Tom's right when he says Rakic has only lost to the best of the best at light heavyweight.

There's no shame in that, and it raises him above the typical gatekeeper level. But he's in that role here against a guy who's unbeaten at every level and has handled the same sort of foes Rakic did while he was climbing the UFC ladder.

I'll believe in the Russian until he gives me reason not to.

Prediction: Murzakanov by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: I'm standing with Rakic on this one.

Three losses in a row obviously reads horribly, but I think Murzakanov's 15-0 run is perhaps hyping him up a little more than deserved right now.

The jump from beating Brenson Ribeiro to fighting Rakic is pretty steep and I can't see him being able to deal with the reach difference without suffering.

Don't get me wrong, Rakic has it within him to completely mess this up. If he does…where does he go next? I don't think we'll see that storyline come to fruition.

Prediction: Rakic by unanimous decision