Kirill Kaprizov's $137 Million Contract Sets the Floor for Connor McDavid's New Deal

The first domino in a new era of NHL superstar free-agent signings has officially fallen, after Kirill Kaprizov and the Minnesota Wild reached an extension one week before the 2025-26 season starts.

The eight-year max deal, worth $136 million in total with a $17 million average annual value, breaks NHL records in both total amount and AAV.

Kaprizov reportedly rejected a contract for eight years at a $126 million value, which would have been an NHL record in its own right. His deal surpasses Leon Draisaitl's $112 million deal that carries a $14 million annual cap hit this season.

We had been waiting for some major extensions to roll in following the first significant salary-cap jump in years and its anticipated growth continuation. Kaprizov's deal tells us one thing's for certain: These stars are getting paid.

Kaprizov's negotiations generated a ton of buzz, considering the new era of the rising salary cap and the new CBA. Hockey fans wondered if his camp turned down the initial Wild offer to see what Connor McDavid's contract would look like. Obviously, Minnesota countered with a $10 million raise on the original offer, which Kaprizov rightfully deemed too good to pass up. 

So, Kaprizov was the ceiling-setter for most and the floor setter for McDavid's offers, although his Oilers might not be able to cough up much more than the Russian's number. 

McDavid's current contract is worth $12.5 million per year under the eight-year, $100 million deal he signed with the Oilers in 2017. He's the best hockey player in the world, an ambassador of the NHL, and a perennial Hart Trophy and Conn Smythe candidate or winner. 

Kaprizov is developing into a superstar and put together his own Hart Trophy campaign last season before injury derailed him, but side-by-side comparisons emphasize how much McDavid is worth.

McDavid has eclipsed 100 points in every single season he has been healthy since entering the league in 2015-16. The only two seasons he missed 100 points were when he played 45 games and 64 games, and averaged well over one point per game in each. Kaprizov has been in the league for five seasons, and he's been outstanding while healthy, but he's only eclipsed 100 points once—when he played a career-high 81 games. 

McDavid's last three seasons: in 2022-23, 82 games played, 64 goals, 153 points, plus-22; in 2023-24, 76 games played, 32 goals, 132 points, plus-35; in 2024-25, 67 games played, 26 goals, 100 points, plus-20.

Kaprizov's last three seasons: in 2022-23: 67 games played, 40 goals, 75 points, plus-4; in 2023-24, 75 games played, 46 goals, 96 points, plus-11; in 2024-25, 41 games, 25 goals, 56 points, plus-19.

It's never as simple as a bare-bones stat comparison, and of course, McDavid has Leon Draisaitl by his side. This isn't to disparage Kaprizov's accomplishments—or potential when fully healthy—but clearly McDavid is in line to break his record-breaking contract.

The Wild are in a completely different situation than the Oilers, as Minnesota is at the beginning of its window and young players are starting to emerge. The Oilers have been competing for the Cup for years and have two of the best players in the world—and a lack of cap space—to prove it.

Kaprizov's contract tells us McDavid could command in the ballpark of a $20 million AAV on the free market, which seems unrealistic for the Oilers to dish out, no matter how you slice it. 

From everything the Oilers and McDavid have said on their last two trips to the Cup Final, McDavid wants to win above all else. With two Cup Final losses, does he still believe he can win with the Oilers?

It makes sense that McDavid has indicated he wants to take his time with his new contract, given the numerous factors at play.

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There's a scenario in which McDavid takes a major pay cut to stay with the Oilers and they never hoist the Cup anyway. He could also find a sweet spot with the next record-breaking contract on a team his skills have the power to push over the edge. He may also end up with all the money in the world but no Cup to show for it. 

Kaprizov's deal today sets the stage for a McDavid blockbuster...eventually. The more you sit down and think about it, though, does a bridge deal seem like the most logical next step?

Perhaps McDavid gives the Oilers another year or three with enough cap space to sign the correct pieces to go for this Cup wholeheartedly. In three years, the cap will rise even higher, and maybe that's when we see that historic deal.

Regardless of the outcome, the Oilers captain stands to earn a significant amount of money, and Kaprizov's new deal will certainly catch his attention.